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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DigiTimes: Foxconn trialing production of NX, ~10m units expected annually

JRPGfan on 23 September 2016
BlkPaladin said:
Kerotan said:
If the NX is a replacement for the Wii U and 3DS isn't that kinda low? Would mean another decline from their total console sales this gen?

Not really, remember the Wii U has only sold a little over 13 million and even with adding the 3DS units on top of that you only get 72.5 million which is about 18 million. But you have to remember they don't want to over produce, they don't want to under produce but there is more danger in over production. So the production can be ramp up or slowed down as needed but it takes time. Over producing causes you warehouses to fill up and then they would have to stop production.

Fortune favors the bold though. Theres much higher profits ahead if they guess right, and dont undership either. Its a balanceing act.

I say rather abit over, than abit under. If the NX is a replacement for the 3DS & Wii U, and launches cheap, I think they need a big batch ready at launch.

If their confident enough in their product, they should aim for the moon.



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TheLastStarFighter on 23 September 2016
Kerotan said:
If the NX is a replacement for the Wii U and 3DS isn't that kinda low? Would mean another decline from their total console sales this gen?

They would target a 10 million per year rate of production to start, that doesn't mean 10 million per for the life of the product.  All products ramp up, if you look at products that have had great success like PS1, 2, DS or Wii, they start at a rate of about 10 Mil per year but ramp up to more than double that.



lynksseus on 23 September 2016
TheLastStarFighter said:
Kerotan said:
If the NX is a replacement for the Wii U and 3DS isn't that kinda low? Would mean another decline from their total console sales this gen?

They would target a 10 million per year rate of production to start, that doesn't mean 10 million per for the life of the product.  All products ramp up, if you look at products that have had great success like PS1, 2, DS or Wii, they start at a rate of about 10 Mil per year but ramp up to more than double that.

It'll be interesting to actually count the sales of NX, if it is, in fact, a hybrid. Is it going to be bundled as a handheld with a home console dock, or will they release just the handheld piece with an option to purchase the dock?

 

Essentially, it will basically depends on how the handheld portion performs and if it would be worth to upgrade and purchase the dock.

 

What we do know, however, is Nintendo's strength had been in the handheld department (especially since Sony entered the race). It'll be interesting to see how they progress with this idea.

 

Off-topic: How do we even categorize this shit is, handheld device or a home console?



TheLastStarFighter on 23 September 2016
lynksseus said:
TheLastStarFighter said:

They would target a 10 million per year rate of production to start, that doesn't mean 10 million per for the life of the product.  All products ramp up, if you look at products that have had great success like PS1, 2, DS or Wii, they start at a rate of about 10 Mil per year but ramp up to more than double that.

It'll be interesting to actually count the sales of NX, if it is, in fact, a hybrid. Is it going to be bundled as a handheld with a home console dock, or will they release just the handheld piece with an option to purchase the dock?

 

Essentially, it will basically depends on how the handheld portion performs and if it would be worth to upgrade and purchase the dock.

 

What we do know, however, is Nintendo's strength had been in the handheld department (especially since Sony entered the race). It'll be interesting to see how they progress with this idea.

 

Off-topic: How do we even categorize this shit is, handheld device or a home console?

I think going forward it will just be a Sony, MS or Nintendo Console for Chartz purposes.  Sony most likley won't have a handheld, and Nintendo will have this universal system setup.  The only oddity will be if the NX handheld and home console are possible to sell seperately, like Vita and Vita TV.



Kerotan on 23 September 2016
BlkPaladin said:
Kerotan said:
If the NX is a replacement for the Wii U and 3DS isn't that kinda low? Would mean another decline from their total console sales this gen?

Not really, remember the Wii U has only sold a little over 13 million and even with adding the 3DS units on top of that you only get 72.5 million which is about 18 million. But you have to remember they don't want to over produce, they don't want to under produce but there is more danger in over production. So the production can be ramp up or slowed down as needed but it takes time. Over producing causes you warehouses to fill up and then they would have to stop production. That happened with the Gamecube near the end of its life it before it was getting a little traction in sales so Nintendo got bullish and had way too many made and they had to stop production for several months until the excess could get sold off. But the news that they stoped production essensially was the last nail in coffin for the console and it killed any momentum they had before. And its not like they will stay at that production level that is just the initial flow.

Thanks for the informative reply.  So basically if sales are better than that they can easily ramp up production and meet the higher demand. 



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BlkPaladin on 24 September 2016
Kerotan said:
BlkPaladin said:

Not really, remember the Wii U has only sold a little over 13 million and even with adding the 3DS units on top of that you only get 72.5 million which is about 18 million. But you have to remember they don't want to over produce, they don't want to under produce but there is more danger in over production. So the production can be ramp up or slowed down as needed but it takes time. Over producing causes you warehouses to fill up and then they would have to stop production. That happened with the Gamecube near the end of its life it before it was getting a little traction in sales so Nintendo got bullish and had way too many made and they had to stop production for several months until the excess could get sold off. But the news that they stoped production essensially was the last nail in coffin for the console and it killed any momentum they had before. And its not like they will stay at that production level that is just the initial flow.

Thanks for the informative reply.  So basically if sales are better than that they can easily ramp up production and meet the higher demand. 

Yep, and that is was a test run if for to see how fast they can initially get systems out. And if they need more they will have to ask Foxconn to increase the resources on it. (ie "hire" more workers)



ArchangelMadzz on 24 September 2016

They want to outsell Xbox One by a very significant amount?

Hmm



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bonzobanana on 24 September 2016

The original wii u production figures were quite high as Nintendo were expecting success but the first thing they realised was people were more interested in the 32gb wii u than the 8gb version and there was a greater margin so they stopped production quite quickly of the 8gb version but there were still many to sell through. After 12-18 months I think wii u production stopped completely but there was enough stock to last. They've been re-packaging consoles to freshen them up and limiting stock to last the duration. It would be interesting to know the foxconn numbers for wii u.

It's possibly for NX if the platform fails production will have a limited time. No doubt Nintendo have offered guarantee's to Foxconn about the number of consoles and if it falls too low perhaps they will have to pay money to Foxconn to offset production set up costs.

When you think about it the wii u sold amazingly considering its high cost for a very weak console but Nintendo would have invested big money in R & D that they probably didn't get fully back because of the low sales.

That's one thing that helps Nintendo they maintain a huge profit margin compared to Sony and Microsoft. So failure isn't quite as bad as the wii u may have returned 4-5x the profit back to Nintendo that the PS4 and xbone consoles do so it can sell in less numbers however the low userbase means lower software sales and royalties which is what they would have suffered from most.

I don't see the tablet or tablet with extra box concept working that well myself and wouldn't be surprised if the NX performs worse than wii u so again foxconn production may have a limited run which Nintendo will sell over multiple years.

Nintendo's successful products tend to get refreshes as time goes on, new colours, minor spec changes etc the wii u never got a single revision not even an upgrade of its flash memory from 32gb to 64gb or 128gb which was much needed and I suspect the NX will follow a similar path.

That's based on the either of the 2 NX concepts that have been put forward but I'm certainly hoping that is wrong and Nintendo will do a decent commercial design that will succeed.