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Forums - Politics Discussion - Does Trump have any real chance of winning

Oopps, wrong thread.



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spurgeonryan said:
pray4mojo said:
Once the debates happen, no. All those undecideds are going to see what the rest of us do. That he's a celebrity, reality tv star without a clue.

Yes, that is good. Clinton does have a clue of how to use the white house to its fullest to benefit her family. She does not care about this country, just another career politician that knows how to milk America dry.

 

But I would say both Candidates are terrible. It is like being forces to choose between Hitler and whoever is in charge in Burma.

I'm just saying that Clinton knows how to debate. She's a politician. She's done them 40 times over her career. Her political savy is light years beyond Trump, who basically is just an average joe, blow hard. He hasn't had his feet held to the fire yet and doesn't have the intellect or experience to handle a national debate where he's going to be fact checked. Every stupid, hateful and ridiculous thing he's said over the last few years is going to be exposed and he's not going to be able to deny it and move on. The moderator is going to make sure of that. 

I don't care for either person and thus, won't vote. But when the moderate, swing voters really get to see just how ridiuclous Trump is, those polls are going to shift so hard in her favor, he'll be finished.



GProgrammer said:

At least Trump is getting some strong Endorsements from overseas leaders

Aren't the saudi royal family one of the largest contributors to the Clinton Foundation?

Putin is a saint compared to those guys.Ironic that she's courting the gay vote while taking money from leaders who condone throwing homosexuals off buildings no?



Who knows? I'd say that despite what everyone likes to scream about their preferred candidate, things will probably be very close, just based on the polls.
But then again, the polls seemed to indicate that things were going to be close between Obama and Romney, yet Romney's was one of the most crushing defeats in US electoral history, so at this point, who really can say.
I will say that in the few weeks that are left, given the debates, Trump will have a lot opportunities to use his media savvy, and the first rule of public debates in an electoral setting: It's not about being right, it's about looking right.



invetedlotus123 said:
Ucouldntbemorewrong said:

Na, He's only going to geat the meathead vote. Sensible, Educated, Black, Women, other minorities are for the most part unlikly to vote for him. All said and done think it's going to look like a 70/30 split in Clingtons favor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v7XXSt9XRM

Well, with the bizarre election system US adopts if he has majority in the right states it`s more than enough. I don`t understand why US didn`t change for a direct voting couting decades ago, this system of delegates really hurts equality as citizes of some states counts more than citizens of others.

Its FPP the same as used by the UK and other countries, yes its a bad system as in most states the peoples votes are worthless, as it just comes doen to a few key states tht chose for the whole country but USA and change, even if its a logical better system, fat chance, they still use the old fashion miles and pounds etc



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Yeah, I'd say he still has a chance. ...still no idea WHY. o.O

I mean, don't get me wrong, there are definitely reasons to stand against a Clinton administration, and think that against nearly any other Republican candidate I could understand her losing. But when it comes to virtually every issue raised about Hilary- lack of honesty, lack of scruples, willingness to use their power to further their own ends, etc- my response is, basically, 'Okay, but how is Trump NOT all of that, plus really petty?'

As a businessman he's apparently amassed a bit of a reputation for screwing over smaller businesses that provide him with their goods/services, and yet still manages to find bankruptcy here and there. As a philantropist, he's basically become a channel for other people's money, and has possibly even used some of that money to his own ends, not having contributed any himself for years. Those two things actually cast the whole 'We'll build a wall and make Mexico pay for it' in a new light for me, because it kind of seems like Trump is just USED to getting things done using others peoples' money.

As a speaker, he's probably the last man I'd want speaking on any possible subject, unless he is CAREFULLY following a script written by other people and is being shadowed by at least six fact-checkers. George W. Bush's slips in speech- odd stuff he'd say, etc- got poked fun at during his tenure as President, but pretty sure Trump's surpassed that man before even getting elected. o_O

At this point, the only thing that I could say in favor of Trump is, as dishonest as he is, at least he seems to be REALLY bad at it. The newest wrinkle to the 'birther movement' being a key example, where the first time Trump finally says 'Yeah, okay, Obama WAS born in the U.S.' was joined with 'The whole thing was started by Hilary Clinton's campaign, look how I'm the one TOTALLY settling the matter!'

In other words, while I can definitely see Trump trying to do anything and everything Hilary's done/been accused of doing, I'm guessing he'd be nowhere as good at getting away with it. But betting on that seems like a REALLY bad idea.



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SamLeheny said:

Who knows? I'd say that despite what everyone likes to scream about their preferred candidate, things will probably be very close, just based on the polls.
But then again, the polls seemed to indicate that things were going to be close between Obama and Romney, yet Romney's was one of the most crushing defeats in US electoral history, so at this point, who really can say.
I will say that in the few weeks that are left, given the debates, Trump will have a lot opportunities to use his media savvy, and the first rule of public debates in an electoral setting: It's not about being right, it's about looking right.

Wait... what?! Since when was Romney's defeat in 2012 "one of the most crushing defeats in US electoral history"?! He lost the popular vote by less than 4 percent, and Obama won less electoral votes than the winners did in 70% of elections since 1904!



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GProgrammer said:

Luckily you're not a betting man or else you would be broke, living on the side of the street begging strangers for cash, thats the worst prediction I have read

 

Short answer is No, the way the voting system and demographics work in the US, its nearly impossible for a repbulican to win, let alone the most unpopular republican candidate ever

Woman offended = 50% of the electorate

Blacks offended = 12% of the electorate and growing

Hispanics offended = 16% of the electorate and growing

The Only people he hasnt offended are the white males = 32% of the electorate and shrinking (and here its the uneducated ones that support trump)

 

 

Trump's polling with black voters better than any Republican candidate has done in recent elections. Around 20-25%, whereas Romney received 6%, McCain received 4%, Bush 2004 received 11%, Bush 2000 received 9%, Bob Dole 12%, H W Bush 10%, H W Bush 9%, Reagan 9%.

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

---------

As for women:

Women break for Clinton (53% to 38%) while men shift Trump's way (54% to 32%). Among women, those who are unmarried make up the core of her support, 73% of unmarried women back Clinton compared with just 36% of married women. Among men, no such marriage gap emerges, as both unmarried and married men favor Trump.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/

The split it more along married vs unmarried, than men vs women. Trump is more popular with men, than Hillary is with women.

You're right on Hispanics, Trump is polling about 10 points lower with Hispanics than Republicans usually do.



On one hand: Trump gets elected, and has a horrible single term where absolutely nothing is accomplished. Congress keeps him from doing anything, and the country is in a complete deadlock for four years. The American people also vote in congressmen specifically to keep him from doing insane things, and his agenda can be clearly read the entire time since it is his agenda. Then we can try again from the same position we're in now (except we'll have the experience of "don't vote for loudmouths or Satan").

On the other hand: Clinton gets elected, and continues to use whatever power she seems to have gained (immunity to compromising national secrets, free pass on Benghazi, etc) to further whatever agenda has been paid for by the nameless group of hooting dickholes that really runs America. She fucks the American people hard, but legalizes marijuana so we don't notice or care. She gets elected again, and we realize that the national debt has risen to over $20trillion.



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