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Why the Scorpio will sell for no more than $399 (if its 6tflops).

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Will the Scorpio sell for no more than $399 (if its 6Tflops).

Yes. Technology progresse... 117 29.77%
 
No. Its simply too expens... 276 70.23%
 
Total:393
LivingMetal said:
Machiavellian said:

With Apple, Sony and Google trying to vie for a strong present within the living room, I would be hard press to believe MS will just give up and throw in the towell.  The Xbox brand is strong and they still need hardware.  Now if MS just create a platform called Xbox with software and hardware specs so third party manufactures can make basically PC solution ala Steam OS then I can see that happening.

I never said that.

Then what are you saying.  You stated that if the scropio does not do well by by MS.  Not sure now what you poosition is.



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Machiavellian said:
LivingMetal said:

I never said that.

Then what are you saying.  You stated that if the scropio does not do well by by MS.  Not sure now what you poosition is.

"IF" is the key word.  It refers to the FUTURE.  NONE of us will know what will happens when it happens.  Please don't put words into my mouth to make a false argument.  Typical.

EDIT: The context here goes back to the link YOU posted which was titled "Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Suggests the Future of Xbox Could Be Mobile."

So let me reitrate that Microsoft can employ an Xbox infrastructure without an Xbox branded console.  You're the one that pointed to an article that was in suggestion a counter to your argument.  In fact, it was more of an interpretative piece by the author of what Nadella said.  You have every right to your view point, but the article you posted is way to subjective to do you any good.



Captain_Yuri said:
I don't think its going any higher than 6TF cause why do they need to? Its more powerful than the Ps4Pro so no need to up the TF and increase the price.

As far as Price is concerned, I highly doubt it will go above $450. If MS is really feeling it, maybe $400. MS, while they have made some stupid decisions in the past, shouldn't be this stupid to try and sell a console at $500 a second time. Yea its more powerful but they must realize that $400 is the perfect price point for consoles these days (except the underpowered ones). So I think MS will try to hit near that $400 mark at $450 being the highest.

Remember, we all thought Ps4Pro will be $450-$500 but it ended up being $400. I think going above $450 will be overshooting it.

I was expecting a 4k blu ray player with PS4 Pro.  That's why I thought it would have been $500.  I'd still gladly pay $500 if it were included.



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LivingMetal said:
Machiavellian said:

Then what are you saying.  You stated that if the scropio does not do well by by MS.  Not sure now what you poosition is.

"IF" is the key word.  It refers to the FUTURE.  NONE of us will know what will happens when it happens.  Please don't put words into my mouth to make a false argument.  Typical.

EDIT: The context here goes back to the link YOU posted which was titled "Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Suggests the Future of Xbox Could Be Mobile."

So let me reitrate that Microsoft can employ an Xbox infrastructure without an Xbox branded console.  You're the one that pointed to an article that was in suggestion a counter to your argument.  In fact, it was more of an interpretative piece by the author of what Nadella said.  You have every right to your view point, but the article you posted is way to subjective to do you any good.

I really did not care about the article oinion more than I wanted to find direct quote from MS CEO on his position on the Xbox division.

Also taking this part from what you stated, exactly how did you think it would be interpreded

Finally, some common sense on the internet. Scorpio is probably MS's last comeback strategy to win back market share. If they failed, they aren't going to focus on the console market anymore. You can always see it in the cards... with the investment they make in gaming developments, they have already streamlined their investment a lot. There has always been rumors that Microsoft wants to drop the console. And Microsoft even openly says Scorpio is the last console generation.  

Reading that last line, it appeared to me you were suggesting that MS is looking to drop the console and thus move out of the business.  When reading the last part where you say that MS stated that Scorpio is the last console generation, even that part can be construed that you mean this is MS saying there will be no more Xbox hardware after Scorpio, instead MS has stated that there will be no more completely different hardware where you start from the beginning again like transitioning from PS2 to PS3 to PS4.

So exactly how will MS execute an Xbox infrastructure without actual branded console.  Not having an actual piece of hardware underneath that TV makes that strategy very hard.  No matter how the future unfolds after the Scorpio, I believe there will always be a piece of hardware branded Xbox.  It could be a streaming box, it could be licensed Xbox from many different vendors, Hell, it could be Xbox branded TVs that steam you game but it will still be a piece of hardware that deliver you games and branded with the name.



Teeqoz said:
You are right, but for the wrong reasons. Moore's law is dead, and has been for a while. However the Scorpio isn't that far above the Pro (same relative difference as the Xbox One to the PS4), so I'd be surprised if they couldn't manage to sell it for 399$ by the time it launches. I don't really understand the people saying 500-600$, that doesn't make sense.

Moores Law isn't dead. It's just being extended.
Moore's law has constantly been claimed "dead" over the last 50 odd years and it's never come true.

First PMOS replaced Bipolar Transistors, which were in turn replaced by NMOS and then that too got kicked to the curb in favor of CMOS, Geometrical Scaling > Equivalent Scaling and now we are in the era of 3D scaling.

Moore's law is also more than just how small you can make a transister.
At every node, there is constant refinement to the patterning process, constant refinement to chip layouts to improve density and reduce leakage and more, it's why AMD and nVidia were able to push 28nm as far as they did.

irstupid said:

Actually it's like a $30 piece of hardware.

It's $15 more than the Blu Ray player. That's where the $15 comes from.

Meaning it would only cost Sony $15 more to use that instead of a blu ray player in the PS4pro.  Considering Sony's position with the format though, it should cost them less than the $15.

But yea, its a moot point. A $300 system already out has it included. It's not going to be bringing up the Scorpio's price by $100 like peopel think the Pro's price would somehow be $100 more if it had a 4k player. 

In some cases UHD costs $0 extra over a regular Blu-Ray drive, there are drives on the PC that get that functionality with a firmware update.

JRPGfan said:

Unless they use a newer proccessing node to shrink their bigger chip, to the same size or smaller than Sony's, I dont expect them to be able to do the same price as them (399$). Im assumeing they will use the same manufactureing technology, and same gpu arch just bigger chip.

To me that means it launches at a higher price than 399$.

My guess is : 449$-499$,  Leaning more towards 449$.

(I used to think it would be higher, but sony suprised me with their lower than antisopated price)

Looking forwards to eating crow if 1year from now if it launches at 399$.

I also assume they will give the PS4 pro a 50$ price cut, right before the scorpio launches, so it ends up 349$ vs 449$.

There is more to a chips cost than just the size. If the fab you are using has a process that tends to be very leaky... Then a smaller higher clocking chip that used more volts would likely result in a costlier design than a larger chip, with more conservative clocks and voltages.
Fabricating chips isn't as black and white as people assume it is.

We need to keep in mind that we have no idea where Scorpio is going to be fabbed, whether it's at TSMC's 16nm or at Global Foundries 14nm.

There is also other costs to consider as the other components aren't free.

poklane said:

Percentages. The difference between 6TF and 4.2TF is 42.86%, the difference between 1.84TF and 1.31TF is 40.46%

More to performance that just flops.

JRPGfan said:

"1 year = cheaper" doesnt work, unless you have fab advances that make it so.

If you truly believe that, then you should probably spend more time researching how chips are made.


Normchacho said:

And it's going to require an all new CPU.

Why will it require a new CPU?

CGI-Quality said:

Well, the rumor mill claims 12GB of RAM.

Which would mean (If that rumor is valid) that it's using a 384bit memory bus or 192bit, which would be new-ground for AMD as far as bus widths go.

Teeqoz said:
CGI-Quality said:

If I could have it my way, the thing would launch at $499, be 9-10TFs, with 16 GB of RAM (GDDR5X), contain a 2-4TB SSD, and at least 3 exclusive titles (yes, in essence, Xbox Two).

But, instead, it'll likely launch between $399-$449 and remain a 6TF Xbox One. I just wish it had some exclusives.

Only GDDR5X? Why not HBM 2.0? I mean, you might as well go all in at that point.

The interposer would likely drive costs up to high for a console. HBM is premium. Like seriously premium.
GDDR5X is good enough for a console at the moment.

Normchacho said:

I guess it doesn't HAVE to have a new CPU. But people are in for a huge disappointment if it doesn't. 

Even if it gets overcooked by like 30% youre still looking at a 2.4 or 2.5GHz CPU. That not really enough to make a huge difference over the Pro. You'll basically be seeing PS4  vs. Xbox One levels of difference amd it will still probably be more than $399.

AMD's cat cores aren't good at clocking. 2.4Ghz would be pushing it.

Normchacho said:

MS said that it will have 320 gb/s worth of GDDR5. That's either 12gb, the fastest 8gb ever, or the slowest 16gb of GDDR5 ever.

Depends on how wide the bus is.
12Gb of memory tells me that there will be a 192bit or 384bit memory bus depending on how many memory chips are used.
Thus you are looking at 3.2 Gbps GDDR5 speed on a 384bit memory bus or 6.4 Gbps on a 192 bit bus to hit that 320 gb/s number.
It's not unusual for GDDR5 to hit those rates, Polaris (Radeon 480) for instance is using 7 and 8 Gbps chips.

Normchacho said:

MS has said that they are Jaguar cores. Which is a shame. But I can't imagine them not using a new CPU of some kind.

Source? Please?

mutantsushi said:

This thread feels embarassing.
"Moore's Law!!!" OK, so then talk about processor fabrication advancement to substantiate that.
Sony is using Global Foundries 14nm FinFET. Where is MS going to get10nm by next year to achieve Moore's Law? They aren't.

Sony is actually using TSMC's 16nm (Aka. Rebranded 20nm with Finfet.)



mutantsushi said:

I don't believe MS will actually get Zen although if they did it would be great for them, but they will at least use Puma+.

Agreed. Zen likely didn't tape out once Scorpio entered the design phase. Puma+ at most is likely, Jaguar is still a possibility.


barneystinson69 said:

Exactly. The RX 480 is only $199, and it is capable of 6Tflops with a slight overclock. You can expect that to fall to $149 next year, and plus you need to take into account discounts as well. People here are overestimating the cost of the Scorpio given the specs we've got.

You also need to remember that a PC's Graphics card is for the *entire* graphics card from Ram, to power delivery to PCB... For a chip in a console, it's a cost that is consolidated.

Soundwave said:
DialgaMarine said:
I feel it would sell at a serious loss at $399, simply because MS can't just give the CPU a boosts, otherwise the 6 TFLOPs mean nothing. I'm thinking more along the line of $499 at the least.

You really think a 2013 Jaguar is the pinnacle of CPU technology and can't be improved on in 4 years? 

Jaguar already has a successor... It's been out for a long time actually. It's called Puma.

Drakrami said:

 Microsoft's Xbox Live has become the envy of all other online-gaming services. Yet, speculation abounds that Nadella will try to trim the fat at Microsoft and sell off the Xbox division to another company. Xbox doesn't fit into Nadella's vision for Microsoft, reports say, and he's willing to drop the division for the right price. But Nadella should consider such a move carefully. While gaming might not fit into Microsoft's core enterprise software and services business, the Xbox division is too big and too important for Microsoft to sell off even as it tries to move deeper into the mobile hardware market.

The issue is that the Xbox is integrating more and more of Microsoft's technology and platforms, becoming tangled in the Universal Windows Platform and pushing Microsoft services like Bing and Skype. It's not something Microsoft will give away lightly.

Microsoft are willing to pay millions/billions for services with a large number of users, because then they can tempt those users to other services and make more money.
Xbox Live falls into that category now.

Often I see Microsoft trying to sell an Xbox alongside a Surface Laptop and Windows Phone... And I have to admit, I have been tempted a few times. :P



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barneystinson69 said:

Exactly. The RX 480 is only $199, and it is capable of 6Tflops with a slight overclock. You can expect that to fall to $149 next year, and plus you need to take into account discounts as well. People here are overestimating the cost of the Scorpio given the specs we've got.

You also need to remember that a PC's Graphics card is for the *entire* graphics card from Ram, to power delivery to PCB... For a chip in a console, it's a cost that is consolidated.

It is also important to remember that MS is not paying retail price for components.  I'm just guessing here, but I'd bet that MS pays no more than 50% of the retail price for most console components, probably far less in some cases.  Further, in the process of designing these systems, MS (or Sony or Ninty) certainly works with the component manufacturers to figure out where the best value can be found.  Prices we see at retail have little to do with the prices console designers are seeing when selecting components.    



Machiavellian said:
LivingMetal said:

Yeah, but an infrastructure/ecosysem called "Xbox" and a game console are two different things.  Not trying to split hairs, but we have to really see where their console efforts and direction is going after witnessing the success/failure of the Scorpio.

With Apple, Sony and Google trying to vie for a strong present within the living room, I would be hard press to believe MS will just give up and throw in the towell.  The Xbox brand is strong and they still need hardware.  Now if MS just create a platform called Xbox with software and hardware specs so third party manufactures can make basically PC solution ala Steam OS then I can see that happening.

This seems theoretically possible.  But, it would be a significant change of direction for MS.  They've been moving into hardware more and more over the last decade, and they've had huge successes with the Surface and Xbox brands.  



Eddie_Raja said:
exclusive_console said:

OS + a controller and all that in a relatively compact box. That takes lot of money to manufacture than you think

To me lot of people expecting a 400$ console are going to disappointed. It is significantly more powerful than Xbone S which is 300$ and I do not think this is dropping to 200$. May be on sale for 250$ for limited time at best

You do understand that Sony is a Hardware company with massive economy of scale... Right?

 

That more than makes up for that extra $50.

Cut all of those prices in half, and you'll likely have something close to the actual component prices that they're paying.  Then, add in a bunch of R&D, marketing, and distribution expenses, then consider that they have to wholesale the product far, far below the retail price, and you'll start to get a picture of how console pricing works.



barneystinson69 said:

So with the announcement of the PS4 Pro and it being only $399, many have called upon the doom of the Scorpio. I'm here to settle the waves a little bit, and try to talk with what we know of the Scorpio. Now we know AS OF NOW that the Scorpio is going to be 6Tflops. Microsoft has already stated this, so we're not going to dig into whether or not this is true. Maybe it will be 8-10tflops and cost $600, but this is pure speculation at this point. So for the sake of my argument, we're going to assume that Microsoft doesn't change its specs.

People have stated that this means the Scorpio should launch for 500-600 dollars. Now if the Scorpio was launching today, I could see the point in your argument. But since its launch is next year, it doesn't hold up. One simply reason: Moore's Law. The rate of technological advancement doubles every two years. You could say this is absurd! Its suppose to be a "premium device", how could this be true? Well lets use the PS4 Pro and the PS4 as an example. When the PS4 launched in 2013, it cost $399. The PS4 Pro will also cost $399, but will have 4.2 Tflops of power vs 1.8. Thats a 133% increase in power for the same price within 3 years. Granted its slower than what Moore's law predict's, its an impressive increase nonetheless. Given how the Scorpio will be launching in 2017, that gives us more time to progress. Now keep in mind, I'm assuming the Scorpio will be 6Tflops. If its increased, then its likely to cost more than that. So discuss all you will, but keep in mind that the Scorpio has been announced with 6Tflops. 

I think it'll be $399 or a version of it will as in the 500gb model but I don't know if it will be 6 flops.  I don't really think MS know fully what it'll be yet.  I'm sure that's their goal and they'll likely achieve it or get close. 

I think it'll be $399 because MS seem determined not to give up more than anything else. Meaning, they'll find a way to make it happen just as Sony found a way to hit that price point. 

 

Edit: I thought this thread sounded familiar. I thought it was a new thread and not a resurrected one. Oh well, I still think $399. 



l <---- Do you mean this glitch Gribble?  If not, I'll keep looking.  

 

 

 

 

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Marco....

The only thing that makes sense is find out how much does it cost to build a 6Tf PC in 2016.

Then we simply apply devaluation calculations compared to that a 6Tf PC costed back in 2015.

And then we can estimate a projection for 2017 and guess how much of that cost is going to be absorbed by Microsoft.