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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Why the Scorpio will sell for no more than $399 (if its 6tflops).

 

Will the Scorpio sell for no more than $399 (if its 6Tflops).

Yes. Technology progresse... 117 29.77%
 
No. Its simply too expens... 276 70.23%
 
Total:393

So with the announcement of the PS4 Pro and it being only $399, many have called upon the doom of the Scorpio. I'm here to settle the waves a little bit, and try to talk with what we know of the Scorpio. Now we know AS OF NOW that the Scorpio is going to be 6Tflops. Microsoft has already stated this, so we're not going to dig into whether or not this is true. Maybe it will be 8-10tflops and cost $600, but this is pure speculation at this point. So for the sake of my argument, we're going to assume that Microsoft doesn't change its specs.

People have stated that this means the Scorpio should launch for 500-600 dollars. Now if the Scorpio was launching today, I could see the point in your argument. But since its launch is next year, it doesn't hold up. One simply reason: Moore's Law. The rate of technological advancement doubles every two years. You could say this is absurd! Its suppose to be a "premium device", how could this be true? Well lets use the PS4 Pro and the PS4 as an example. When the PS4 launched in 2013, it cost $399. The PS4 Pro will also cost $399, but will have 4.2 Tflops of power vs 1.8. Thats a 133% increase in power for the same price within 3 years. Granted its slower than what Moore's law predict's, its an impressive increase nonetheless. Given how the Scorpio will be launching in 2017, that gives us more time to progress. Now keep in mind, I'm assuming the Scorpio will be 6Tflops. If its increased, then its likely to cost more than that. So discuss all you will, but keep in mind that the Scorpio has been announced with 6Tflops. 



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

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Bandorr said:
You keep saying "6 flops" over and over. You know there is more to it than just "6 flops" right?

Please indulge me. 



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

I don't think its going any higher than 6TF cause why do they need to? Its more powerful than the Ps4Pro so no need to up the TF and increase the price.

As far as Price is concerned, I highly doubt it will go above $450. If MS is really feeling it, maybe $400. MS, while they have made some stupid decisions in the past, shouldn't be this stupid to try and sell a console at $500 a second time. Yea its more powerful but they must realize that $400 is the perfect price point for consoles these days (except the underpowered ones). So I think MS will try to hit near that $400 mark at $450 being the highest.

Remember, we all thought Ps4Pro will be $450-$500 but it ended up being $400. I think going above $450 will be overshooting it.



                  

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RolStoppable said:
barneystinson69 said:

Please indulge me. 

4k Blu-ray player.

Lol. For a $15 piece of hardware? That'll be the thing that makes the Scorpio $500. Considering the XB1 Slim is $299 and already comes with it. Man you really crack me up XD



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

You are right, but for the wrong reasons. Moore's law is dead, and has been for a while. However the Scorpio isn't that far above the Pro (same relative difference as the Xbox One to the PS4), so I'd be surprised if they couldn't manage to sell it for 399$ by the time it launches. I don't really understand the people saying 500-600$, that doesn't make sense.



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Teeqoz said:
You are right, but for the wrong reasons. Moore's law is dead, and has been for a while. However the Scorpio isn't that far above the Pro (same relative difference as the Xbox One to the PS4), so I'd be surprised if they couldn't manage to sell it for 399$ by the time it launches. I don't really understand the people saying 500-600$, that doesn't make sense.

The point I'm trying to make is that technology advances over time. We can't assume that prices will stay the same next year, because they won't! If we're shooting forn $500-600$, we're aiming for AT LEAST 8Tflops. 



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 said:
RolStoppable said:

4k Blu-ray player.

Lol. For a $15 piece of hardware? That'll be the thing that makes the Scorpio $500. Considering the XB1 Slim is $299 and already comes with it. Man you really crack me up XD

Actually it's like a $30 piece of hardware.

It's $15 more than the Blu Ray player. That's where the $15 comes from.

Meaning it would only cost Sony $15 more to use that instead of a blu ray player in the PS4pro.  Considering Sony's position with the format though, it should cost them less than the $15.

But yea, its a moot point. A $300 system already out has it included. It's not going to be bringing up the Scorpio's price by $100 like peopel think the Pro's price would somehow be $100 more if it had a 4k player. 



They may sell it at $399 but it'll certainly be sold at a loss if they do. I think $499 is more likely.

Let's not forget they launched the original XBO at $500, sure it came with Kinect but that price for a 1.31 Tflop machine? An overly large machine with an external power brick? 

There's a lot more that goes into the pricing of a console than it's "flops" so it could be $399 but I think it's more likely to be higher.



People realize that you don't have to make $100 jumps, right? A console launching at more than $399 doesn't necessary have to be $499, it could be $449 or even a price such as $429.

Personally I think they'll sell it at a very slight profit, but I wont be saying any exact number as to what I think it will be since I have 0 clue how much it will cost to build a 6TF + other possible improvements console. But personally I think that the console industry has reached a point where no console's standard unit should be a cent more than $399.99 if it wants to sell well.



Unless they use a newer proccessing node to shrink their bigger chip, to the same size or smaller than Sony's, I dont expect them to be able to do the same price as them (399$). Im assumeing they will use the same manufactureing technology, and same gpu arch just bigger chip.

To me that means it launches at a higher price than 399$.

My guess is : 449$-499$,  Leaning more towards 449$.

(I used to think it would be higher, but sony suprised me with their lower than antisopated price)

Looking forwards to eating crow if 1year from now if it launches at 399$.

I also assume they will give the PS4 pro a 50$ price cut, right before the scorpio launches, so it ends up 349$ vs 449$.