How many consoles do you want to buy?
How many consoles do you want to buy?
Just a reality check for those that think a PS5 in 2019 is going to be truly next gen.
The first thing you have to know is that true leaps in console capability only come with shrinks to technology. You can get refinment and improved performance from the same tech over time, but nothing beats a shrink in the tech itself.
In this current generation we had the PS4 and the XBO launch with 28nm Planar APU's, and now we have PS4 Pro launching with a 14nm FinFET APU. The Pro also benefited from three refinments to the Gaphics Core Next (GCN) tech from AMD, which in hand with the shink in chip size gave it a decent boost, but nothing that is blowing people away.
Now, lets look at the power consumption of the PS4 vs the PS4 Pro. We don't have final actual use test, but we do know the OG PS4 launched with a 250W powersupply, and the PS4 Pro has a 310W power suppply. So the PS4 Pro has a small more energy effiecient chip, based on a more a GPU desing with higher effeciency per Watt, and it is still drawing enough power to require a 60W bigger power supply that the OG PS4.
Looking at the road map to future AMD tech you will see this kind of leap in fabrication size is not going to happen again. We skipped 20nm Planar which was what the original slim PS4 was supposed to be based on, and ended up all the way down on 14nm FinFET due to manufacting problems with that 20nm Planar process.
The next thing in line, and quite possibly where the XBO will be made is on 10nm FinFET and based on AMD Vega. This is the only way the will pull of 6TFLOPs and stay in the confinments of a console. Again, though, the difference between the Pro and Scorpio, will only be 30%. That means something like 1440p - 4k on the Pro and 1800p -4k on the scorpio.
Now if we look ahead to 2019, we see that the plan is for AMD to move to 7nm FinFET, and a GPU code named Navi. This GPU in itself will not be a massive improvement over the Pro and the Scorpio, but will see a decent boost due to being paired with "next gen memory" the revision after HBM2. This is what your so called PS5 would be based on, however, AMD only expects the leap between the PS4 Pro's Polaris GPU tech and the Navi GPU to be about as big as the jump from, PS4 to PS4 Pro.
So, basically, if PS5 comes out in 2019, the best we can expect from a console with a 300W power supply at $399.99 is about 10TFLOPs. That is enough to do a very clean 4K with new bells and whistles, but it will not fundamentaly change the way a game is made. These will still be the same game as you could get on the OG PS4 at 1080p. Perhapps, that will be enough for Sony, and the cadence for new conmsoles will be every three years, only time will tell. IF that is the case though, I fully expect major disapointment when PS5 is revealed, as most people will be let down, because theyare living on unrealistic expectations.
This is a really good post and resonates with my own beliefs of how the console industry will move forward. A realistic take on how the tech will advance and what will be the limits of PS5/X2 consoles unless a breakthrough is made. Graphically, there exists a generational step and that is ray-tracing. It will divide graphics simply to, before ray-tracing and after ray-tracing. I don't believe PS5 will be able to do ray-tracing and for the rest of this post I make that assumption.
When I read these forums, all I see is people clinging to the word generation time and time again. Those days are over, PS4 to PS5 will be nowhere near the same as PS1 to PS2, or some other truly generational leap in the past. Generational in the sense that it actually mattered, it made a difference in real world terms and not just in paper.
Think how the actual games changed in the past and how games will change in the future when this so called generation leap happens.
Let's look at PS1 and the jump to PS2. Games like Final Fantasy X, Gran Turismo 3, Metal Gear Solid 2, Devil May Cry, these games simply couldn't be done on the PS1. If they had made PS1 versions, those games would have looked unrecognizable, like a totally different game from the PS2 version.
Now think about PS4, PS4Pro and PS5. I think it is safe to say, there will be a Call of Duty game which will release for both PS4 and PS5, let's use that as our imaginary example. PS5 Cod will look significantly better than the PS4 version but it will still be very much the same game in every sense. But then you go on and compare PS5 CoD to PS4Pro and it is guaranteed the differences will be a lot smaller. The difference between PS5 and PS4 could be loosely called generational compared to the past. Following this logic, how could PS5 and PS4Pro difference be called generational? How could this scenario be called nothing else than BLURRING THE GENERATIONS?
And this is only comparing the Playstation family. What will be the difference between PS5 and Scorpio. Even smaller. And this is why it doesn't matter Scorpio is releasing late to this generation. Scorpio will be very capable and comparable even when PS5 gets released and the consumer will have to make a choice between $249 Scorpio or $399 PS5. The price difference can be bigger or smaller, what will matter is the value proposition and it is safe to assume that it will be competitive.
Then there are the games. A lot of people sound like the generations set the games apart but that is not true anymore. It was like that in the past but look at our current console market. For this generation cross-gen keeps going and going, you could call that blurring of the generations too. There was cross-gen games like Titanfall, Watch Dogs, Call of Duty, Sports Games, Metal Gear Solid V, Dragon Age and many more. Point is, the majority of games released only for PS4/X1 could be made for PS3/X360 also but the publishers let it go because it was not financially viable anymore. Look at Japanese publishers, they already have the PS3 version made but still won't bring it to west, it's just not financially viable. And this is exactly how it will play out for the majority of games in the future. PS4/X1, PS4Pro/Scorpio, PS5/X2...etc. versions will be dropped out when it is not financially viable anymore. This is the natural way how things work. It's not the generations that dictate this but hard cold cash.
In the end, there will be Sony consoles, Microsoft consoles, corporation X consoles, the consumer goes to retail and buys a SKU which suits his needs, whether it is the less or more powerful SKU does not matter, the consumer will be guaranteed to get games support for X-years. Yes, looking at the spec sheets, you will be able to divide consoles by generation but it will not translate to real world terms. This is the generationless approach. No, it will not happen overnight, it will not be like flip-a-switch, it will take time but it will get there slowly.
It has already started.
I cannot imagine toilet-free life.
Kebabs have a unique attribute compared to other consumables. To unlock this effect you need to wolf down a big ass kebab really fast, like under 10 minutes or so and wait for the effect to kick in. If done correctly your movements should feel unbelievably heavy to the point where you literally cannot move at all.
-Downtown Alanya Kebab magazine issue no.198
Nope. I honestly don't think as many people are going to care about 4K, as these companies think will.
Hahaha, No need. I predict that PS4 Pro outsell than Scorpio 1.5~ 2.0 times ( Lifetime ) even NA.
In my view Scorpio is just a marketing tactic by Xbox (Which worked wonderfully) to confuse the market and slow down sales on PS. Should Sony wait until Scorpio is released and then drop a PS5 release when MS are all dialed in, effectively making the Scorpio redundant right out the door. Whatever they pull, the ball is truely in Sonys court right now, even though it might seem otherwise.
It's my opinion that MS found out that Sony were releasing a new console this year which was a massive problem for them, because they would be at least a year out and were not expecting it and Sony would continue to pull people in with a better spec machine and a cheaper faster machine. So this meant Sony has two consoles better than MS. So i suspect thats why they went to E3 with a video showing what Scorpio was as they knew like the rest of us what the Sony device was going to be, either option that was apparently on the table was less than 6TF, so just say you are making a 6tf machine.
I think the Pr strategy worked because on the internet there are lots of people who are now suddenly interested in specs again, and I had a twitter exchange with people like Boogie who was saying Sony fumbled it because they were releasing a console that was 30% less powerful than the scorpio, even though we all know that scorpio isnt an actual device yet and not avaialable for at least another 12 months. Of course the console will be less powerful if its released a full year before the competitor, thats like saying the iPhone 7 will be less powerful than the iPhone 8. There will always be a console that is more powerful than the other, and to be fair thats the point I'm trying to make, which is launches are no longer aligned again and so we are in a situation where people are not having to replace their libraries the market has shifted.
If we look back to the PS3, it had a terrible price, but in the end the best library, it was less powerful than the Xbox in some ways but developers like Naughty dog made the Cell look powerful... all in all which stopped the console from being totally destroyed outside of the USA. This time the PS4 will have both the cost benefit and library benefit. So it wont have the power, but if we look at the returns of a more powerful console is going to give we are starting to get the to the point where we are seeing less benefits, and with consoles not being started afresh and PS4 games having to work on Pro machines, unless MS change their mind and make scorpio specific games I dont think people will notice much difference between it and the Pro, because they'll be held back by the XBO.
Price is an interesting aspect here, because the PS3 was too damn high, but every time Sony wanted to drop the price MS were there to match or improve it and Sony were never really able to claw back sales at a fast rate. I think price wise we can forget about the slim, this will drop by 50 pounds by xmas, but most people will be comparing the pro with scorpio. Next year Say MS bring out a 449 system, Sony could easily be alot cheaper than this by at least 100. is 30% difference going to make a big change in sales, of course the XBO will get good initial sales due to a new console launch, but its not going to beat a console that is 100 cheaper with a better library of games/
So long story short :) no I do not think Sony will release a PS5 console with Scorpio because I just dont think they need to.
As harsh as it can get, it's the other way.
I figure you lot are probably right. Sony will lead this gen through no matter what even if MS jump to 9th gen next year.
Everything in the above reply is my opinion, from my own perspective and not representative of reality outside of my own head!
-Android user, please be gentle with critique on my spelling.
Sony already has a userbase around 2X that of XB1. Microsoft really felt like the fact the PS4 was more powerful at launch was the main reason it has crushed them now for 3 years. This tells me they really think it as simple if they become more power they win. Console gamers are not like PC gamers where they feel they need have the best of the best all the time. Some are, but they also tend to own multiple consoles anyways.
Sony is releasing the Pro because in 2013 the tech was not ready to make 4K gaming affordable, we are now getting there. The Pro is simply a stop gap to allow people who wish to play in 4K a way to and allow them to wait longer before PS5.
Microsoft might be getting into a dangerous cycle for them. If they start annualizing hardware updates they lose their differentiation from PCs. Most of their games are already on PC, so people will start asking themselves why they have an Xbox if whatever they buy this year is obsolete next year. Of course if they start treating them like cellphones this could work, you pay 30 bucks a month for your network access and it includes the hardware which you can upgrade every 2 years, or you can get on the 45 bucks a month plan and upgrade annually.
This could potentially mark the end of Xbox console as a brand. They will simply go about posting hardware updates putting the devs into a fix. Dreamcast of Sega had struggled after besting ps2 hardware and see where it ended up, in less than 2 years of not being able to compete with the massively succesful ps2, Sega discontinued and were out of the console business. If Xbox Scorpio falters the same way as to (PS4 slim+ PS4 Pro) when sales data are in, then its trouble. Most console gamers would stick with current consoles brought at launch or buy new at lower prices where the PS4 slim comes into relevance. Sony clearly knows how to market their features well by targetting their audience. PS4 Pro is simply targetted for the enthusiasts with a valid reason. I'm getting a PS4 Pro, because I own a 4K monitor and wish to play ps4 pro enhanced games at that resolution. It baffles me, that 4K Blu-Ray is considered as a feature to compete with where the audience is pretty much niche. Ps4 Pro would sell less for many other reasons, but 4K blu-ray is not one.
Sony is the leader, they can stay with the ps4neo until 2019, even 2020 easily.