zorg1000 said: Ok, so Awakening/Fates were able to increase the appeal of the franchise even without being visually better than Dawn/Path of Radiance. Isnt that proof that visuals really arent that big of a factor and future games wont be seen as gimped? Its hard to convince anybody to buy any device for a single game, its going to be the overall software library, system features, price, marketing, etc. that convince people to buy it. If NX gets those things right than it will probably do well, if they mess up on one or more of those categories than they will struggle. No, it wont be several hundred dollars cheaper, but it will be a seperate type of device with different software and hardware features, just like PS4/XBO vs PC. If i recall, data from last generation showed that a large number of PS3/360 owners had a Wii and vice versa. Wii was not competing directly with them yet they were able to appeal to many of the same people. Im not buying those numbers, they simply dont add up. How did they go from losing about $100 per unit to gaining $100 per unit in the matter of a year? What im getting at is Nintendo would have to pay each 3rd party a percentage of the revenue for making their games a part of the service instead of receiving a royalty fee from them because 3rd parties sure as hell are going to want to get paid. So what % of this $25 subscription service would be a profit for Nintendo, $5? Plus the fact that no subscription service starts out with massive numbers, Xbox Live, PS Plus, Netflix, Hulu, Pandora, Spotify, etc. all of these services needed years to build up and become the services they are now. If Nintendo were to go with a subscription model, it would need to be introduced and given time to grow before it became a massive money earner for them. |
"Ok, so Awakening/Fates were able to increase the appeal of the franchise even without being visually better than Dawn/Path of Radiance. Isnt that proof that visuals really arent that big of a factor and future games wont be seen as gimped?"
But... you were just saying that improving the graphics within the series was a big deal...
"No, it wont be several hundred dollars cheaper, but it will be a seperate type of device with different software and hardware features, just like PS4/XBO vs PC."
When the price difference is that big, you can't say they're the same situation. If a high end gaming PC sold for $450 or $500, I'd imagine that would severely damage the PS4's prospects. The comparison is not apt.
If i recall, data from last generation showed that a large number of PS3/360 owners had a Wii and vice versa. Wii was not competing directly with them yet they were able to appeal to many of the same people.
Not sure about that, I'd need to see the data. But, if they're appealing to the same people, then they're in competition. Some people will decide on both, and others will choose one. I had a PSP and a DS, as I'm sure many others did. Didn't mean they weren't competing.
Im not buying those numbers, they simply dont add up. How did they go from losing about $100 per unit to gaining $100 per unit in the matter of a year?
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2006/11/8239/
What im getting at is Nintendo would have to pay each 3rd party a percentage of the revenue for making their games a part of the service instead of receiving a royalty fee from them because 3rd parties sure as hell are going to want to get paid. So what % of this $25 subscription service would be a profit for Nintendo, $5?
You're asking to get pretty deep into a purely hypothetical business model... But I don't think it would be a percentage, as I'm pretty sure that's not how things like Netflix work. It would be a licensing fee. For instance, Nintendo might pay something like 10 million or so to put Just Dance on their service (just a round hypothetical number). After that, Ubisoft is paid. Nintendo keeps all the money for the subscription.
So, if Nintendo has 5 million active users, that's 125 million dollars a month. They pay whatever they need to pay out for games licenses, and then the rest is profit (or margin at least). If 2 years from launch Nintendo has 15 million active users (a fairly modest goal), then that'd be 375 million a month.
Of course, their could be varying deals for different companies. For instance, some games may earn some kind of bonus for being downloaded x number of times. Or indie games may not earn a licensing fee unless a certain threshhold is met.
I can't really say exactly how it would work, because this is a theoretical thing that won't happen in the future. But, there's no reason it wouldn't be possible.
Plus the fact that no subscription service starts out with massive numbers, Xbox Live, PS Plus, Netflix, Hulu, Pandora, Spotify, etc. all of these services needed years to build up and become the services they are now. If Nintendo were to go with a subscription model, it would need to be introduced and given time to grow before it became a massive money earner for them.
I think it would grow faster than those things, since it's tied so intricately to the machine. I'd imagine they may even do the account activation at the point of sales (which would earn retailers a fee and give them a reason to promote the console). But, yeah, it'd take time, and it would be a big risk. But companies don't turn things around by playing it safe.