Hopefully MS made alot of those since the regular 2T white one almost sold out :-p

Why bother buying the fifa rights =/= Microsoft needs this big deals!    Isn't it a bit contradicting? It is hard to guess but I would not be surprised that analysts in those two companies estimate that most people who are going to buy the next Fifa game already have a Xbox one or will buy a different bundle and then later on buying fifa 17. If the game was not bundled the next months probably 100.000 people will buy a Xbox one for fifa 17 and that is not that much for EA (and 100.00 sounds even optimistic).  And then Ms propose to bundle it with an Xbox one S and probably buys lets say a million bundles an pay for each copy 20 bucks so 20 million + it comes with EA Access.  That 20 million is possible more that they will get from new Xbox one owners fifa buyers the next months anyway and making that game bundled will probably make some interest to buy fifa 18 and subscribe to EA access so that 20 million can goes up to 30-50 million and then we are not even talking about microsft covering marketing costs aswell for them.

What probably wasn't cheap was the Titanfall (exclusive) deal.

I pre-ordered it.  Since it came with Gears of War 4, a game I was likely to purchase anyway, I saw real value in the package. 

Fifa 16 sales retail: (higher with digital) 

Ps4: 8.2m

X1: 3.1m

Ps3: 2.7m

X1: 1.6m

They've been paying big bucks to promote this franchise for a few years now.  

Basically Sony doesn't spend a dime but they get the lions share of the sales.  Microsoft spends a lot but gets way less.  These deals don't pay off when you're getting beat so badly WW. They only pay off for the dominant player.  

That's why it's worth it for Sony with the bo3 deal.  Meanwhile they lose nothing by Microsoft buying the Fifa deal.  

I wouldn't be surprised if Fifa 17 sells 10m retail on the ps4. (very likely including digital).  And that's without them spending a penny.  

Everybody knows fifa is on Playstation.  All Microsoft is doing is advertising the game and that's helping it sell on Playstation too.  EA are the big winners with this deal. 

Looks good.

The X1 is in the list twice?  Or did you mean the Xbox 360 with the second "X1" listing?

Are you intimately familiar with the terms of the deal?  Do you have extensive market research that demonstrates how much better/worse the games, and the consoles themselves, might have sold without these deals?  It seems to me that you're making a tonne of assumptions.

Maybe this deal cost a little, benefits Microsoft a little, and is a success.  Maybe it costs a lot and benefits a lot (compared to not doing it).  Like you I have theories, but in an absence of market research, or an ability to peak into an alternate universe where the deal didn't happen, and especially without an idea of what this deal actually cost Microsoft, it's all speculation.  Perhaps this deal will sell more Xbox One S units than a price decrease would have, if that price decrease was in similar proportion to what Microsoft pays to include the game.  Perhaps some people on the fence between the PS4 and Xbox One S will be swayed by the bundle if they're big soccer fans.  Anecdotally, I know people who got an Xbox One in part because of the Fallout 4 bundle, despite Fallout 4 also being available on the PS4, the PS4 being the dominant console, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Yeah I meant 360.

And yes I'm basing this on my assumptions and opinions.  

The numbers are fairly conclusive though.  

Sony spend "x" amount on massive 3Rd party game advertising rights.  Said game sells a lot more on Playstation.  

Microsoft spends "x" amount on massive 3Rd party advertising rights.  Said game sells a lot more on Playstation.  

Sony getting way better value for money. 

Do all systems just have download codes now for the bundles? Seems to be going that way for awhile now.

Perhaps EA offers extremely favourable terms to Microsoft just for those reasons you specify, such as it may also boost sales of the game on the PS4 as you suggest.  Perhaps EA offers more favourable terms to Microsoft in exchange for including a one month trial of EA Access and the potential of that leading to long-term subscription revenue for them (an option they can't offer customers on the PS4).

Success is determined by what it costs Microsoft relative to what it gains them.  You've selected an aribitrary measure of success, and made several assumptions about what it costs Microsoft to accomplish that.  I submit to you that it may cost them less than you think, which would dramatically change what defines success.

I disagree that your numbers are "conclusive".  How can we draw a conclusion from your numbers when we don't have key pieces of information, most especially what it costs Microsoft to bundle the game?

They can both be successful but it's clear it's much more fruitful for PlayStation.  

EA know Microsoft need these deals or they're fucked.  They'd definitely get a good price out of them.  They have the cash,  so they're gonna make them pay.  That's my opinion.