I find it very hard for Trump to win Florida or Nevada but it would be interesting if he can generate enough minority votes to pull that state.

Hahaha, good luck with that Trump. 

The scary thing for Trump right now is recent polling is showing he's sinking with the white vote too, he would need more of the white vote than Romney got in 2012, but right now he's below, largely because college educated whites and white women are not buying into his campaign. 

I had not seen any data on South Carolina, but anything under 10 point win for Trump is surprising given the state's history (1980 to 2012).  The idea of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida all being blue is hard to imagine, but what it could do is force Trump to play defensively in states otherwise assumed were safe keeping him away from the midwest to get those rust belt states.

My plan is to update this roughly every week or two as new data comes out and see how campaigns and debates unfold.  I do agree that current trajectory could lead to a major Clinton win, but given the margins in so many states not confident enough in August to state that.

Trump won the primaries (which to be fair I thought was utterly impossible) for a couple of key factors. First off, primaries skew towards more passionate voters on one side or the other. After the primaries, when the more moderate folks start paying attention, being extreme becomes less viable. Secondly, Trump was in a field with about ten candidates. That meant the traditional republican vote was split five or six ways, and the "outsider" vote was really between Trump and Carson... and Carson wasn't ever a strong candidate. Granted, Trump did continue winning even when it was him and Cruz, but at that point the momentum was hard to combat. Trump's schtick is that he is a winner, and the early results fed into that.

Trump's rhetoric ignited early voters, but it's the thing that's going to turn moderates around. It's especially problematic in states where he'll need spanish, muslim, or female votes. Trump is actually polling in fourth place among blacks...

We're dealing with the two of the most disliked candidates in the history of politics. If the focus is on Trump, he loses. If the focus is on Hillary, she loses. And the Clinton campaign has been doing a great job of keeping the election focused on him. Not that they need to work hard on that, because Trump can't seem to get out of his own way by shutting the fuck up. The recent emails regarding the Clinton foundation (which I think were kind of overblown anyway) could have really hurt Hillary, but that's lost in the shuffle when Trump is suggesting second amendment people (aka people with guns) could "do something" about Hillary or saying that Obama is the founder of ISIS. A measured response could have kept the heat on Hillary, but things like this make the story about him. It seems his ego wants it that way. All Hillary really has to do is stick to policy points, and rebuke Trump whenever he says something stupid.

It seems unlikely that anything Trump does at this point will gain him significant support. Unless something truly damning about Hillary comes out, it seems the election is hers... which is a bittersweet reality.

Hey, even if Hilary can be artificial she was probably the best candidate to handle world politics. Bernie's a good guy, but he lacked the experience internationally she does and I am not sure any Republican can match her abiity with being the chief diplomat.

A Bernie presidency could be better domestically, but Russia and China's behavior makes me want someone who might be better diplomaticaly. 

Bernie has actually made better decisions in terms of foreign policy when they were both senators.  Most notably, he was one of the few to speak and vote against the Iraq war, and gave a speech detailing exactly what he thought would happen, and what did in fact happen.  He also spoke out against trade deals like the TPP which Hillary supported... until it became unpopular and then she didn't.  Bernie didn't have experience dealing directly with other powers, but he's shown consistently good judgment.

That's really my main problem with Hillary.  She can be disingenious, but I've never seen that as really going beyond typical political spin. But, she seems to go with whatever the popular opinion at the time, without much vision of her own.  Sanders was a stong opponent of don't ask don't tell and a proponent of gay marriage while Hillary supported don't ask don't tell and the defense of marriage act.  Hillary supported the Patriot act which Bernie opposed.  Hillary opposed the minimum wage increase until Bernie made it a big deal.  Hillary didn't say anything about Citizen's United (along with deregulation, the most important issue in this election IMO) until Bernie made it a part of his platform.  

Bernie, in both domestic and international matters, has showed foresight and has been on the right side of history almost every time.  Hillary just goes along with the prevailing political opinions.  The one matter she really took initiative was with healthcare.  Bernie was a far better candidate in terms of policy, and also a far more honest and genuine candidate, and it's unfortunate that he lost (and possibly was screwed) as he was probably the best candidate in quite a while.  

That being said, Hillary generally seems sane and reasonable.  I'll pretty much always vote for sane over insane. 

pretty close basing off those polls and charts

Right now it's not really, the last 3 elections at least were far more competetive at this point. 

It's why Trump, no stranger to boasting about polls, has gone deathly quiet on that front and now is starting to drop statements like (a few weeks ago) that the election will be rigged (pre-emptive loser talk) and now he's saying if he loses he'll just take a nice long vacation. 

I believe Trump plan which has worked pretty well for him during the Republican Primaries is to stay in the news and spend as little money as possible.  The problem with the national stage is that if his money is not that strong, Clinton will just kill him with public ads everywhere.  Money plays a really big role during the main event and being able to pretty much flood key states over your opponent is big.  I totally agree that if Trump really wanted to win, he only needed to have more measured responses to Clinton instead of trying to blow everything up in bombastic proportions. 

I still wonder if Trump really does want to win.  It’s one thing to go through the republican party and win but it’s totally something else to actually be President.  It seems like the President Job is something everyone wants but also something that seems to age you about 20 years once you are finished.