Much gets made of national polls, as they do serve as an indicator for how the general electorate is going.  However, the country doesn't directly elect the president, the states do and are allocated electoral votes with the winning number being 270 or greater.

The majority of states are "safe states" in recent election cycles with "red America" and "blue America" beocming more pronounced in the 21st century.  This has led to the election being decided by "swing states" which are competitive and go red or blue dpeending on many factors.

Given this is the case to see who  will become president this cycle monitor the various swing state polling data.  I will be using the following site Real Clear Politics that aggregates various polling between the four major candidates to give a picture of how the election will likely turn out.  If you take issue with polling or think the data is incorrect, that's fine, but I don't want this to descend into argument about that.  Trying to keep this thread objective as possible and refer to data over personal desires or feelings.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

State 1: Wisconsin

State 2: Iowa

State 3: Pennsylvania

State 4: Ohio

State 5: Florida

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

As of Early August the break down of states is as follows according to polling data.

What does this mean? As of now Clinton is the favorite looking at the electoral map. There is still plenty of time for the four candidates to move up or down.

Clinton wins if she holds blue states and wins 1-2 swing states. Trump needs to hold red states and win several swing states or convert a blue state or two. This spreads Trump wider needing votes in a dozen area while Clinton could focus her energy on 1-4 states (Ohio and Florida being significant ones) to ensure the 270 mark.

Have polling data, electoral maps, comments on how see various states going?

Join and pleas be civil.

Prediction of Final Electoral Map as of 11th of August

Clinton 297
Trump 241

I see Clinton sweeping the North East and West Coast while Trump claims the South and plains. The key is the "rust belt" of the midwest and that is where I see Clinton winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania to seal it.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Bookmarking this thread. You've done a really good job laying out the polling data and electoral map; I'll definitely keep tabs as election day draws near.

It's really weird how badly Trump keeps sabotaging his campaign, yet has a score as high as he does. I have never heard of a fringe party doing so well.

One aspect to monitor is Libertarian and Green Party candidates and their effect on the election.  Two months ago Johnson (L) was at 4.5 and Stein (G) was at 2.5, whereas now Johnson (L) is at 9.0 and Stein (G) is at 3.8.

Those numbers may seem small, but especially in tight races 4 points could make the difference in how a state goes. For example Utah (a deep deep red state) could be much closer than past several elections due to Johnson garnering an impressive 16% now cutting into Trumps' lead.

Correct. Ohio swings back and forth and is considered a good indicator of the country's mood in general toward either party's candidate.  I predict ohio fro Clinton right now largely because polling data now over six months has shown her in some form of lead over Trump. Even when he cut into her margin during the RNC she still held on and saw her lead grow after the DNC.

Of those four I'd say Pennsylvania is the hardest for Trump to win and even if he wins Ohio on my map Clinton still crosses 270 threshold.  Of course if he goes all in for Pennsylvania I could see the Clinton campaign hitting Florida hard.  That is the challenge Trump faces in allocating campaign reources across several battleground states.

I don't see Trump winning Pennsylvania. That's a pretty reliable blue state.

If Clinton wins any one of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, or (gasp) Georgia, she basically wins the presidency I think. If she wins Florida it's basically over, Trump's remarks on Hispanics could cost him that state.

Clinton is opening up the map now and campaigning hard in Georgia, which is incredible, but it looks like that state is competitive now too.

Pennsylvania has three parts to it: the edges that are Philidephia and Pittsburg, and the central part that is basically Alabama. 

Having lived in the U.S. for several years now, I have come to the conclusion that the electoral system is a joke. There is not and will not ever be a democracy in the U.S> until they move to the popular vote. All those "hard" red or blue states are controlled by one or two major cities that decide which way the "state" is voting.