No China and half of Mexico pulled out, that could have potentially been anywhere between another $50-100 million that this movie supposedly needs. It needs to have a solid second weekend in the U.S. and European countries. At this rate, it may not break $550 million for all we can tell.
Honestly though as I said in another thread, I think this was a fun movie to finish the season.

Yeah Hollywood studios are notorious for lying about what is the true break even point for movies. They want it to be as high as possible so people with back end deals (a percentage of the profits) can take as little as possible. They also want to be able to claim as many tax benefits/filming benefits as they can. 

Personally I don't really believe many of these break even numbers, and I think things like the cost of marketing are grossly inflated by studios. 

Every blockbuster movie basically needs to sell $500-$600+ million to make a profit these days apparently, if that's the case IMO blockbuster movies would quickly be extinct because more than 1/2 of them lose money by that metric. 

Obviously they are not losing money because studios keep investing in bigger budget films. 

Also it's understated that North American theater chains don't actually get much of ticket prices. Most blockbuster movies are front loaded and the studio collects up to 70% of that in actuality, I am dubious about the 55%-45% split. The reason popcorn and soda is sky high in price is because that's basically the only thing movie theaters make money off of. 

That's because marketing costs are rising. Take your beloved Ghostbusters, for eg, $144M production budget and $100M marketing budget for a total of $244M. So, yeah, it does need $500M WW to break even.

That's not true. Cinemex withdrew the movie, yes, but Cinépolis took advantage of this and marketed the movie in a big way and now it announced that Suicide Squad its their biggest hit of the year (opening week). Cinépolis has more than 60% of the movie theaters in Mexico and a lot of Cinemex moviegoers just migrated to Cinépolis to watch that movie. SQ earned a lot of publicity because of the Cinemex fiasco and everybody went to Cinépolis to watch the movie, and where there is a Cinemex theater there are like three Cinépolis. So yes, it's a big hit for this movie in Cinépolis and Mexico.

Where to begin?

$175 million movie budget.
$10 million for re-shoots.
$100 million for all marketing (advertising).

Those are the numbers that we've been consistently told and seem relatively verifiable. That total is $285 million and studios usually take, on average throughout a films theater run about .50 on the dollar (half). It can be more or less depending on the theater and/or market.

To say that this film needs $800 million to BREAK EVEN is either complete clickbait or is a way to degrade the film ala Batman v Superman. The latter it was said would need $800 million to break even, and once it did, people across the Internet said it needed $1 billion to be credited as any type of success. Go figure...

This film needs maybe $650 million to break even and start turning pure profit (would equal about $325 million back to the studios). I just don't understand why we have to have these debates (they turn into arguments instead of just being easy conversations). If studios are really pouring this much money into these movies for the product we receive (budgets seem really bloated relative to all in all mediocre or just decent finished products) and thus need x amount in return, they're doing something wrong.

Where to begin?

$175 million movie budget.
$10 million for re-shoots.
$100 million for all marketing (advertising).

Those are the numbers that we've been consistently told and seem relatively verifiable. That total is $285 million and studios usually take, on average throughout a films theater run about .50 on the dollar (half). It can be more or less depending on the theater and/or market.

To say that this film needs $800 million to BREAK EVEN is either complete clickbait or is a way to degrade the film ala Batman v Superman. The latter it was said would need $800 million to break even, and once it did, people across the Internet said it needed $1 billion to be credited as any type of success. Go figure...

This film needs maybe $650 million to break even and start turning pure profit (would equal about $325 million back to the studios). I just don't understand why we have to have these debates (they turn into arguments instead of just being easy conversations). If studios are really pouring this much money into these movies for the product we receive (budgets seem really bloated relative to all in all mediocre or just decent finished products) and thus need x amount in return, they're doing something wrong.

Interesting! Just out of curiosity, do you live in Mexico or were you just watching that situation closely? Because that is some decent speculation/information. Last I had heard was Cinemex had about a 50% share in the Mexican market and thus is why I originally stated half of Mexico would be out. Thanks for posting.