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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Console Market not contracting, becoming more focused

JetSetter said:

I've actually thought about this alot and have really just figured that people just have so many ways to entertain themselves these days. Mobile devices and the Internet can keep a person pretty occupied. Look back when the PS2 came out and you will see that really outside of having the Internet (maybe) and basic movies and music there wasn't much to electronically in our home. Fast forward to today and well there's countless things to do. And while I wouldn't say that core gamers are pulling out of consoles all together like that, PC does seem to be offering a viable alternative and could be eating the lunch of the console makers somewhat. 

That's very true. A lot of my wife's and my gaming nowadays consist of watching Netflix while plugging away at some mobile game or Steam sale indie on my laptop. That just wasn't there in the ps2 era. Pulling out won't happen any time soon though, but less console game time and fewer game purchases have already happened.

I wonder where the decline is coming from or if it's even accross the board. If there is a real decline. The Wii hype and to a lessser extent Kinect brought in a lot of people that are not catered too at all in this gen. Perhaps PSVR has the potential to generate a boost. Now if NX was a phone too it might turn the tables completely.



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Zoombael said:

Is there something missing? The correlation at least is.

Those "mid gen refreshes" are purely an adaption to the changing environment of the market. It's no coincidence that MS and Sony have very similar hardware solutions, chosen with the intent to shorten the cycle. We don't have a cell chip in the PS4, because it would be a waste of time and recources, outright uneconomical. The rapid advances throughout the whole spectrum of entertainment technologies require them to adjust.

Well, obviously that plays a role in all this, but what you are pointing out isbmore of a conveninence or natural step than a beneficial decision. This isnt the first time we are seeing revised skus in the industry, thisis the first time that we are seeing revised hardware that is significantly more powerful but yet in the same generation.

Make no mistake, this isn't because AMD has better chips now and about the constantly evolving tech scape, this is because they do not want to let go of their existing install bases... ever. If the new hardware doesn't replace the old one, and games can still be played across SKUs, what reason does anyone have to leave one console and their entire existing library and jump to another console? Why do you think MS is all of a sudden such a big fan of online cross play between Xbox and PS4 even tho they were fully against it in the past? 

barneystinson69 said:
Really? The console market has strunk a lot, even compared to the 6th ten. During the 6th gen, we saw around 200 million console sales. This generation will probably barely scrape past what the PS2 did. Both Nintendo and Sony's consoles will do worse than their 6th geh counterparts, and the Xbox one will probably barely pull in half of what the 360 did. While the 7th gen was overinflated, the loss is still dramatic. It's like pulling out one of the three console manufacturers from the business altogether. And I expect the 9th gen to be even worse, with an almost total collapse from the handheld market, and likely some additional losses from all three console makers. The mobile market is taking over the casual side of the market, and many core gamers are either moving to the pc or pulling out altogether; and the bad business practices of game publishers like Ubisoft and Activision isn't helping. I hope for the best, but I just can't expect an improvement in the market.

I don't know, both the PS4 and the XB1 have sold better than any PlayStation or Xbox console ever made respectively in the two and a half years they have been on the market. While still at a price point average higher than every previous generation with exception to the 7th gen. In all honesty, there is simply more pointing in the direction that these consoles are doing very well and will at least do as well as or better than the 6th gen than there are supplying what you have written here in your post. 

And I don't think you are really following what I'm saying. Total collapse of the handheld market? And so what? what does that matter if the total revenue made from the gaming industry is up overall. What that tells you is that what used to be the handheld market just moved to somewhere else (aka mobile). It's like saying the movie industry is doomed because no one wants to buy DVDs anymore and instead stream from Netflix but then ignore than the movie industry is making more money than ever before. 

If the handheld market is "collapsing", and more and more people seem to be playing on mobile phones and tablets...... then maybe, just maybe... it's time for Nintendo to start releasing their games on Android and iOS. Maybe just maybe, what that means is that a tablet or smartphone is an all round better mobile gaming platform than a dedicated mobile gaming platform. Or at least as far as people are concerned. 



Lawlight said:
Cloudman said:
That sounds terrible and the opposite of what Nintendo aimed to do with the Wii. We don't want games to become more exclusive, but remain open to everyone, and people are having to invest money into games and consoles for all the wrong reasons. It shouldn't be to pay for services, dlc, and whatever else. It should be just the console and the games. This idea you bring up is a wrong one to go down and would destroy what Nintendo and the Wii fought against.

Gaming as we're familiar with it will always be a hobby for a specific crowd. Look at what happened with the Wii when Nintendo tried to open it to everyone. 

Oh boy... Gaming was a hobby for a specific group back in the early days before the 6th gen, but nowadays that couldn't be farther from the truth. The Wii was one of those things that really paved the way for expanding that gap. We had people of all ages playing games, including people who never played games. It got people together to just have a good time. That was the point of the Wii, and yeah, that did pretty dang well. Heck, the DS did the same thing with having games like brain age, animal crossing and Nintendogs. It got people from all ages enjoying games. People young and old are still playing Animal Crossing.

 

 

 

Intrinsic said:
Cloudman said:
That sounds terrible and the opposite of what Nintendo aimed to do with the Wii. We don't want games to become more exclusive, but remain open to everyone, and people are having to invest money into games and consoles for all the wrong reasons. It shouldn't be to pay for services, dlc, and whatever else. It should be just the console and the games. This idea you bring up is a wrong one to go down and would destroy what Nintendo and the Wii fought against.

Errrrr..... nintendo didn't fight against anything.

If anything, Nintendo are the most "exclusive" of any of the players in the game industry. 

Lol, you make Nintendo sound like some sort of saint. Ah well, that's a convo for another thread. 

It's still all about the games tho. Today we buy a game, and after 3-6 months may or may not get some DLC for said game. You don't have to buy the DLC, you can just play the game you bought and be done with it. If you feel you want to invest more into the game you already bought, thats on you. But as I said, the market has changed. Do you really think if we had as good a network structure as we do now back in the PS2 era we won't also have had DLC back then?

Do you think Nintendo will never release dlc for any of their games ever? If you do, you will be in for a rude awakening. 

And gaming is more open than it has ever been too. But as I said more focused. Let's not forget that as far as gaming goes we just don't have consoles and PCs anymore. We have consoles,handheld, PC, smartphones, tablets, web browser, hell even Facebook!!! If that's not being more open I don't know what is. 

But this also means that there are now more specific type of gamers. There are consoles gamers, PC gamers, smartphone/mobile gamers. browser gamers.....etc. I strongly doubt that you can put all these gamers in one pool and expect them to play nice. I don't think recognizing their unique differences and habits is a bad thing. 

In truth, Nintendo not being able to recognize and capitalize on exactly what their straight is is the cause of all their grief. You really think someone that thinks farmville on face book is hardcore is going to even know what to do with a PS4/XB1 controller much less spend $300-$400 on said console? 

I don't know how anyone cant see or expect the industry to become more focused or contract as they put it. Once upon a time, to play a game like temple run would have meant you had to buy a PS1/PS2 for you or your kids. Even if that ends uo being the only game you/they ever play. Now you can get that game on the same device you use to make calls and carry everywhere with you. So of course you won't have to buy a console anymore just to get that one game. Cause now you can get exactly what you want and only what you want somewhere else. 

I don't really see how Ninten is any more exclusive than any other company. They make games, consoles, and... that's about it. I don't see the damage they're doing.

I didn't say DLC was a necessarily a bad thing. DLC in itself is a great concept. It adds more to your game and keeps you playing longer, though we've seen how DLC can be corrupted many times in the industry, and it should not be a key point to get more money out of people. And I know Ninten has gone on it too, as I've bought some of their dlc, which some have been bad, and some... pretty good, sometimes even free. You don't even have to put a price tag on it. Just... give it for free sometimes.

Though all of that really is besides the point. You say that gaming is becoming more focused, but it sounds like it's the exact opposide. It's more open than it's ever been, and you're saying certain practices should be a way to make it more focused? It sounds like closing off a big market to a small group in the most terrible way, and why you would want to do that, well, I'm not so sure...

And Nintendo is expanding as well. We're seeing them put some games on mobile, which now seems like not such a bad idea...

 

 

 

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

Errrrr..... nintendo didn't fight against anything.

If anything, Nintendo are the most "exclusive" of any of the players in the game industry. 

Lol, you make Nintendo sound like some sort of saint. Ah well, that's a convo for another thread. 

It's still all about the games tho. Today we buy a game, and after 3-6 months may or may not get some DLC for said game. You don't have to buy the DLC, you can just play the game you bought and be done with it. If you feel you want to invest more into the game you already bought, thats on you. But as I said, the market has changed. Do you really think if we had as good a network structure as we do now back in the PS2 era we won't also have had DLC back then?

Do you think Nintendo will never release dlc for any of their games ever? If you do, you will be in for a rude awakening. 

And gaming is more open than it has ever been too. But as I said more focused. Let's not forget that as far as gaming goes we just don't have consoles and PCs anymore. We have consoles,handheld, PC, smartphones, tablets, web browser, hell even Facebook!!! If that's not being more open I don't know what is. 

But this also means that there are now more specific type of gamers. There are consoles gamers, PC gamers, smartphone/mobile gamers. browser gamers.....etc. I strongly doubt that you can put all these gamers in one pool and expect them to play nice. I don't think recognizing their unique differences and habits is a bad thing. 

In truth, Nintendo not being able to recognize and capitalize on exactly what their straight is is the cause of all their grief. You really think someone that thinks farmville on face book is hardcore is going to even know what to do with a PS4/XB1 controller much less spend $300-$400 on said console? 

I don't know how anyone cant see or expect the industry to become more focused or contract as they put it. Once upon a time, to play a game like temple run would have meant you had to buy a PS1/PS2 for you or your kids. Even if that ends uo being the only game you/they ever play. Now you can get that game on the same device you use to make calls and carry everywhere with you. So of course you won't have to buy a console anymore just to get that one game. Cause now you can get exactly what you want and only what you want somewhere else. 

I think you missed his point, all hes saying is that Nintendo tried to open up console gaming to everybody with the Wii (kids, teenagers, adults, seniors, boys, girls, men, women, families) while Sony/Microsoft and the major 3rd party publishers have primarily focused on the "hardcore" gamer which is primarily teenage/adult males.

The less individual demographics there are on consoles, the more niche of a market it will become.

Also, zorg1000 got the point of my comment ~

 



 

              

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Cloudman said:

 I don't really see how Ninten is any more exclusive than any other company. They make games, consoles, and... that's about it. I don't see the damage they're doing.

I didn't say DLC was a necessarily a bad thing. DLC in itself is a great concept. It adds more to your game and keeps you playing longer, though we've seen how DLC can be corrupted many times in the industry, and it should not be a key point to get more money out of people. And I know Ninten has gone on it too, as I've bought some of their dlc, which some have been bad, and some... pretty good, sometimes even free. You don't even have to put a price tag on it. Just... give it for free sometimes.

Though all of that really is besides the point. You say that gaming is becoming more focused, but it sounds like it's the exact opposide. It's more open than it's ever been, and you're saying certain practices should be a way to make it more focused? It sounds like closing off a big market to a small group in the most terrible way, and why you would want to do that, well, I'm not so sure...

And Nintendo is expanding as well. We're seeing them put some games on mobile, which now seems like not such a bad idea...

 

Maybe you have completely missed the point.

Lets start with the thread title. I said consoles are becomig more focused. 

In my supporting posts I have gone on to say gaming is more open than ever before.

Both things aren't mutually exclusive.

Because of how open gaming has become in general, console gaming has in turn become more focused.

Some look at this focus as a contraction, when in truth its just that it's become more fine tuned to its exact specific demographic and audience. But said audience are not just buying games but are also paying for services and buying dlc and what not. 

you and others look at sony's and MS laser focus on a specific type of gamer as a bad thing, whereas its just them investing more in their best kind of customer. 

look at the wii, some of you say that nintendo did good by making some people that would never have been into gaming get into it. Yes they did, but now smartphones, tablets and facebook do that better than Nintendo. Getting people that would have otherwise not been into gaming into it. Those people don't need a console to play their kinda games. Those people aren't interested in the witcher 3 or even COD. They have all the game they need and want on their phone...etc. 

That's not a bad thing. that just means that that is not the kinda person consoles are made for. It never had been, but then  (since up to 2006-2010)those people didn't really have a choice. now they do. 

I think its a ridiculously flawed perspective to look at the industry and just think that morr is always better or that eveeyone playing games should somehow play on consoles. Im not saying this as a cop out that the PS4 will not do PS2 numbers. But that its better for the console business when they know that the 100M people that buy a console are also willing to buy at least 3-4 games a year, pay for dlc and or pay for a service or two. As opposed to more than half of that number just buying a box for just one or two games over a period of 5yrs.

More people than ever before are playing games, consoles are doing better than they have ever been before even though with a smaller userbase. And like I said before,

If the 6th gen had 250M console sales with $30B in software profits, and the 8th gen has 150M-200M console sales with $60B in software (and services) profits. Would you call that a contraction or an expansion? If as a result the overall industry is making more money where is the bad in that? 

And lastly, just to clear something up. The PS4 doesn't have to sell better than the PS2. but it will, why? Cause as far as Sony is concerned and the bottom line is concerned, the PS4 is really a PS4 +PS4neo+ PS5. All those consoles will play or be compatible with the same games. In truth, we should start coming around to the idea of a new way to define consoles. Maybe this generation of Sony consoles should be called the Orbis platform. And not just a PS4. 



"Becoming more focused" is just PR speak for contraction, i.e shrinkage. You can spin it all you like, but this gen isn't going to come close to the previous two gens in terms of userbase, and what this has and will lead to is companies milking their remaining users for all they can get, with services, dlc, and digital games.



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Intrinsic said:

Cloudman said:

 I don't really see how Ninten is any more exclusive than any other company. They make games, consoles, and... that's about it. I don't see the damage they're doing.

I didn't say DLC was a necessarily a bad thing. DLC in itself is a great concept. It adds more to your game and keeps you playing longer, though we've seen how DLC can be corrupted many times in the industry, and it should not be a key point to get more money out of people. And I know Ninten has gone on it too, as I've bought some of their dlc, which some have been bad, and some... pretty good, sometimes even free. You don't even have to put a price tag on it. Just... give it for free sometimes.

Though all of that really is besides the point. You say that gaming is becoming more focused, but it sounds like it's the exact opposide. It's more open than it's ever been, and you're saying certain practices should be a way to make it more focused? It sounds like closing off a big market to a small group in the most terrible way, and why you would want to do that, well, I'm not so sure...

And Nintendo is expanding as well. We're seeing them put some games on mobile, which now seems like not such a bad idea...

 

Maybe you have completely missed the point.

Lets start with the thread title. I said consoles are becomig more focused. 

In my supporting posts I have gone on to say gaming is more open than ever before.

Both things aren't mutually exclusive.

Because of how open gaming has become in general, console gaming has in turn become more focused.

Some look at this focus as a contraction, when in truth its just that it's become more fine tuned to its exact specific demographic and audience. But said audience are not just buying games but are also paying for services and buying dlc and what not. 

you and others look at sony's and MS laser focus on a specific type of gamer as a bad thing, whereas its just them investing more in their best kind of customer. 

look at the wii, some of you say that nintendo did good by making some people that would never have been into gaming get into it. Yes they did, but now smartphones, tablets and facebook do that better than Nintendo. Getting people that would have otherwise not been into gaming into it. Those people don't need a console to play their kinda games. Those people aren't interested in the witcher 3 or even COD. They have all the game they need and want on their phone...etc. 

That's not a bad thing. that just means that that is not the kinda person consoles are made for. It never had been, but then  (since up to 2006-2010)those people didn't really have a choice. now they do. 

I think its a ridiculously flawed perspective to look at the industry and just think that morr is always better or that eveeyone playing games should somehow play on consoles. Im not saying this as a cop out that the PS4 will not do PS2 numbers. But that its better for the console business when they know that the 100M people that buy a console are also willing to buy at least 3-4 games a year, pay for dlc and or pay for a service or two. As opposed to more than half of that number just buying a box for just one or two games over a period of 5yrs.

More people than ever before are playing games, consoles are doing better than they have ever been before even though with a smaller userbase. And like I said before,

If the 6th gen had 250M console sales with $30B in software profits, and the 8th gen has 150M-200M console sales with $60B in software (and services) profits. Would you call that a contraction or an expansion? If as a result the overall industry is making more money where is the bad in that? 

And lastly, just to clear something up. The PS4 doesn't have to sell better than the PS2. but it will, why? Cause as far as Sony is concerned and the bottom line is concerned, the PS4 is really a PS4 +PS4neo+ PS5. All those consoles will play or be compatible with the same games. In truth, we should start coming around to the idea of a new way to define consoles. Maybe this generation of Sony consoles should be called the Orbis platform. And not just a PS4. 

No, I get the point. I just don't agree with it, and sorry to say, but feel it's a terrible way to go. The way you phrase it sounds like games was always an exclusive club, targeting on a certain audience, which back then that view was frowned upon by the general audience, and going back to that is just bad. Gaming should not just focus on certain audiences, but continue expanding out to every audience possible. It wouldn't be great for the market. And not focusing on them just because they also play on other devices sounds like companies are just giving up rather than focusing on other groups. Companies should continue trying to expand, and not try to make profit from other practices like dlc, mid upgrade consoles and paid online services. That's just dentrimental to the general consumer. And it's hard to say the console space is doing well when it it's really just Sony doing well.



 

              

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Intrinsic said:
Zoombael said:

Is there something missing? The correlation at least is.

Those "mid gen refreshes" are purely an adaption to the changing environment of the market. It's no coincidence that MS and Sony have very similar hardware solutions, chosen with the intent to shorten the cycle. We don't have a cell chip in the PS4, because it would be a waste of time and recources, outright uneconomical. The rapid advances throughout the whole spectrum of entertainment technologies require them to adjust.

Well, obviously that plays a role in all this, but what you are pointing out isbmore of a conveninence or natural step than a beneficial decision. This isnt the first time we are seeing revised skus in the industry, thisis the first time that we are seeing revised hardware that is significantly more powerful but yet in the same generation.

Make no mistake, this isn't because AMD has better chips now and about the constantly evolving tech scape, this is because they do not want to let go of their existing install bases... ever. If the new hardware doesn't replace the old one, and games can still be played across SKUs, what reason does anyone have to leave one console and their entire existing library and jump to another console? Why do you think MS is all of a sudden such a big fan of online cross play between Xbox and PS4 even tho they were fully against it in the past? 

barneystinson69 said:
Really? The console market has strunk a lot, even compared to the 6th ten. During the 6th gen, we saw around 200 million console sales. This generation will probably barely scrape past what the PS2 did. Both Nintendo and Sony's consoles will do worse than their 6th geh counterparts, and the Xbox one will probably barely pull in half of what the 360 did. While the 7th gen was overinflated, the loss is still dramatic. It's like pulling out one of the three console manufacturers from the business altogether. And I expect the 9th gen to be even worse, with an almost total collapse from the handheld market, and likely some additional losses from all three console makers. The mobile market is taking over the casual side of the market, and many core gamers are either moving to the pc or pulling out altogether; and the bad business practices of game publishers like Ubisoft and Activision isn't helping. I hope for the best, but I just can't expect an improvement in the market.

I don't know, both the PS4 and the XB1 have sold better than any PlayStation or Xbox console ever made respectively in the two and a half years they have been on the market. While still at a price point average higher than every previous generation with exception to the 7th gen. In all honesty, there is simply more pointing in the direction that these consoles are doing very well and will at least do as well as or better than the 6th gen than there are supplying what you have written here in your post. 

And I don't think you are really following what I'm saying. Total collapse of the handheld market? And so what? what does that matter if the total revenue made from the gaming industry is up overall. What that tells you is that what used to be the handheld market just moved to somewhere else (aka mobile). It's like saying the movie industry is doomed because no one wants to buy DVDs anymore and instead stream from Netflix but then ignore than the movie industry is making more money than ever before. 

If the handheld market is "collapsing", and more and more people seem to be playing on mobile phones and tablets...... then maybe, just maybe... it's time for Nintendo to start releasing their games on Android and iOS. Maybe just maybe, what that means is that a tablet or smartphone is an all round better mobile gaming platform than a dedicated mobile gaming platform. Or at least as far as people are concerned. 

The market is simply geared towards early adoption. Look at how cheap the PS4 and XB1 is relative to their lifecycle, it wasn't something normal during the 7th gen. We see huge bundles desperately trying to get people to buy, and we already have seen the successors to both consoles, the PS4Neo and the Xbox Scorpio. Both consoles will have far less of a lifespan, thus lower sales. And the handheld market is part of the console market too, and during the 7th gen we saw the DS NEARLY surpass the PS2, and even the PSP did a respectibile 80 million. Both the 3DS and PSV combined won't be able to surprass just what the latter did during the 7th gen (pretty bad, considering it was a new entry to the market). I'd understand the loss of some casuals here, but we've seen a huge chunck of the market simply torn apart in a relatively short amount of time.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Trunkin said:
"Becoming more focused" is just PR speak for contraction, i.e shrinkage. You can spin it all you like, but this gen isn't going to come close to the previous two gens in terms of userbase, and what this has and will lead to is companies milking their remaining users for all they can get, with services, dlc, and digital games.

Care to explain? Sure it won't match last gen, but that was bloated by casuals who have never gamed before.  However, I don't really see it having any problems matching Gen 6.

 

We have a PS4 still outpacing the PS2, even with the numbers game favoring the PS2, since Sony was reporting shipments to their warehouses, not shipments to retailers.  And this is without it hitting $299, let alone $199, or the Slim and Neo SKUs out.  We have a XBO that won't match 360, but is definitely going to outpace the OG Xbox, maybe even by 2x.  The Wii U is falling behind the GameCube, but if it can drop to $199 relatively shortly, I'm sure it could at least match it.  When all is said and done, I wouldn't doubt this Gen will either come damn close to matching Gen 6, or possibly outdo it by a few 10s of millions.



thismeintiel said:
Trunkin said:
"Becoming more focused" is just PR speak for contraction, i.e shrinkage. You can spin it all you like, but this gen isn't going to come close to the previous two gens in terms of userbase, and what this has and will lead to is companies milking their remaining users for all they can get, with services, dlc, and digital games.

Care to explain? Sure it won't match last gen, but that was bloated by casuals who have never gamed before.  However, I don't really see it having any problems matching Gen 6.

 

We have a PS4 still outpacing the PS2, even with the numbers game favoring the PS2, since Sony was reporting shipments to their warehouses, not shipments to retailers.  And this is without it hitting $299, let alone $199, or the Slim and Neo SKUs out.  We have a XBO that won't match 360, but is definitely going to outpace the OG Xbox, maybe even by 2x.  The Wii U is falling behind the GameCube, but if it can drop to $199 relatively shortly, I'm sure it could at least match it.  When all is said and done, I wouldn't doubt this Gen will either come damn close to matching Gen 6, or possibly outdo it by a few 10s of millions.

I don't think so. That would make it relatively close to the 7th gen. The Wii U has practically free-falled into nothing, and the XB1 will probably barely scrape past 1/2 of the Xbox 360. The PS4 will probably outsell the PS3 a bit, but I don't see it surpassing 110 million, which for Playstation consoles is normal. That would mean we'd miss the 6th gen numbers (around 200 million) by around 30-40 million consoles.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

I'd put it this way: Console gaming is moving upmarket. This is neither good nor bad, but it has a few consequences:
- Smaller number of total customers
- Higher profit on a per customer basis (because upmarket users are willing to pay premium prices)
- Higher profits in the short term for incumbent companies
- Overshooting (gaming is becoming too expensive / complicated for certain market segments)
- A higher risk of being disrupted in the future ( = another Wii generation in which a "bad" console sells lots of units and Sony / Microsoft lose a lot of money, or disruption by tablets and smartphones)

This has positive and negative sides, so I wouldn't want to judge if it's good or bad. It's just the way it is and it's the direction most established markets go.