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If Eurogamer is right, How many NXs will sell?

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How many NXs will sell WW Lifetime?

0 to 10 Million 84 14.56%
 
10.1 - 20 Million 82 14.21%
 
20.1 - 30 Million 108 18.72%
 
30.1 - 50 Million 123 21.32%
 
50.1 - 75 Million 83 14.38%
 
75 Million + !!!! = Nintendomination 97 16.81%
 
Total:577

I won't bother embarrasing myself before we even know about the console. I don't want to look back on this thread in 2-3 years and know that I was horribly wrong.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

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40m lifetime. Not great but they can't expect better releasing in the middle of the generation.



    

NNID: FrequentFlyer54

18 millions if no NX+.

If NX+, 25 millions.



kitler53 said:
Soundwave said:
50-60 million would be huge for Nintendo. I think they'd be quite happy with that plus mobile is going to make them billions over the next 5 years.

i think that would be a disaster for nintendo.  as a handheld/console hybrid this is replacing both 3DS and wiiU.  nintendo would have to do some serious downsizing to see their platforms contract to be only 50-60 million.

Isn't that what they said they wanted to do though?  They want to streamline their game making process to reduce costs and redundancy.  So, downsizing is almost inevitable.

 

As far as the 50-60 million number goes, that has to be considered a complete home run on their part.  The handheld market only shrinking, and the turn times on technology won't allow systems to go more than 3-5 years without major changes.  



It is near the end of the end....

Probably 35-40 million units lifetime.



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Landguy said:

It may seem logical to compare it to the 3DS.  But the 3DS failed at launch($250).  If this has the capabilities that we are discussing here, it will cost at least $300.  That is the point.  Not powerful enough to suceed as a console yet too expensive to succeed as a handheld.  Also, comparing it to the 3DS when the handheld market is doing nothing but shrinking isn't going to work really either.  If the 3DS came out today(assuming technically comparable for today), it's total sales might only be 1/2 or 2/3 what they are.  I am not saying a NEW dedicated handheld from Nintendo can't be successful, I am saying the version(hybrid) as indicated in the Eurogamer article will not be.  Even if Nintendo released a new dedicated handheld today, it might only have a peak possibility of 40-50 Million sales at most.

 

What exactly are the capabilitys we're discussing? They said they're using Tegra, and the Nvidia Shield using it which came out last year is $200. That's not at all too expensive for a handheld that'll have far greater value than the 3DS ever had. The handheld market is smaller sure, but they can still sell a healthy amount of systems. 50 million sales would be perfectly fine for them, but I'm confident they can do even better. They wont have the same issues that they did with the 3DS.

 

bananaking21 said:
between 15-25 million. majority of its sales will be from japan. and it will basically sell that much due to animal crossing and pokemon

 

Because Mario, Kirby, Zelda, Smash, Metroid, Splatoon, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, etc. exploded? I think people don't realize that this'll be the sole system to play Nintendo games on, and as such their library is going to give the NX a sizeable base by default, I'd say 30 million at the absolute very least if Nintendo majorly screws up.

 

kitler53 said:

i think that would be a disaster for nintendo.  as a handheld/console hybrid this is replacing both 3DS and wiiU.  nintendo would have to do some serious downsizing to see their platforms contract to be only 50-60 million.

 

It would actually be awesome because it means all their games are selling on a well sized installbase, not just half of them like how it is currently. Imagine how much better Splatoon, Mario Maker, Xenoblade X, Woolly World and so ons woulda done selling to 50 million users instead of just 10 million.



Let me save this thread for later.



 

About 15 million



Einsam_Delphin said:
Landguy said:

It may seem logical to compare it to the 3DS.  But the 3DS failed at launch($250).  If this has the capabilities that we are discussing here, it will cost at least $300.  That is the point.  Not powerful enough to suceed as a console yet too expensive to succeed as a handheld.  Also, comparing it to the 3DS when the handheld market is doing nothing but shrinking isn't going to work really either.  If the 3DS came out today(assuming technically comparable for today), it's total sales might only be 1/2 or 2/3 what they are.  I am not saying a NEW dedicated handheld from Nintendo can't be successful, I am saying the version(hybrid) as indicated in the Eurogamer article will not be.  Even if Nintendo released a new dedicated handheld today, it might only have a peak possibility of 40-50 Million sales at most.

 

What exactly are the capabilitys we're discussing? They said they're using Tegra, and the Nvidia Shield using it which came out last year is $200. That's not at all too expensive for a handheld that'll have far greater value than the 3DS ever had. The handheld market is smaller sure, but they can still sell a healthy amount of systems. 50 million sales would be perfectly fine for them, but I'm confident they can do even better. They wont have the same issues that they did with the 3DS.

 

The capabilities are controllers, an ability to drive a 1080p image on a tv, an advanced screen.  The cost will yet be an issue from my perspective, but we will have to see.



It is near the end of the end....

teigaga said:
midrange said:

The 3ds had bad sales early on due to early adopters. Even the wii u had a respectable first 3 months (comparable to the Xbox one actually).

That price will simply be too much for a handheld (people won't be interested in the console portion since the competition is killing it). Merging the 2 ideas is actually what leads me to believe that it will drag below 20 million (rough estimate until actual details come out)

It being a hybrid handheld/tablet is exactly why it won't need to compete against PS4/X1. The tablet market is still huge (200m+ units a year) and many sell for well over $299. A premium spec tablet that lets you play Mario Kart (with splitscreen) and Pokemon will be quite a compelling purchase for many who are familar with nintendo but aren't necessarily interested in a dedicated Nintendo console in 2016. Theres very little info to go off of course, we don't even know whether Nintendo will push it as a tablet but I think it gonna sell like hot cakes at $299. 

 

Tablets like the iPad aren't bought for games. They are bought for other reasons but games are a nice plus on the device.

tablets that are bought for games (built to be durable and comfortable for gaming) come at a much much cheaper price. I would know, I found my little brother a Samsung tablet for around $100.

But $300 for a handheld gaming device? That's way too much. The fact that the Xbox one and ps4 are still popular will detract people from having the NX console side make up for the high price