By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Is the Xbox One dying faster than the 3DS? Is XOne overtracked?

EDIT - Aug 11 NPD numbers indicate the 3DS is ahead of X1 for July. Given than VGC tracks X1 between 40 and 50k first 2 weeks of July, X1 is probably slightly overtracked. 3DS undertracked -  at least for July.

 

Surveying the last several months, the Xbox One and 3DS have pretty regularly swapped the #2 spot in hardware.

Considering the 3DS has been out 2, nearly 3 years, longer than the Xbox One, that can be seen as an accomplishment for the 3Ds or sign of trouble for the Xbox One.

I'd consider it a bit both. Normally, comparisions like this would be met with "But the 3DS is a handheld! It's cheaper!" - but at this point, the X1 is consistently priced well below $300, even under $250 - not far off from the price point N3DS. Additionally, the X1 has consistently been cheaper than the PS4 this whole year and has not yet once really gunned for #1 HW spot globally. 

One might say Xbox hardware revenues were down simply out of the fact the 360 has passed on and the lower price point of X1. But the 360's departure from the market shouldn't be taken as significant to hardware revenues - it was already pretty much done in 2015. Additionally, lower prices on X1 hardware itself ought to be creating significantly higher unit sales. It's not. We can pretty plainly see as consumers the X1 doesn't have the same churn as the PS4 given the continous aggressive price cuts. It makes the idea that X1 is selling in US competitively with the PS4 pretty dubious. It's for these reasons, that I think VGC is in fact overtracking the X1 by a decent margin - further widening the gulf between X1 and 3DS

Taken with the fact that Xbox One HW sales are at best flat - I think this spells an uncertain future for the Xbox One. Price cuts and new games haven't done much to boost it recently. The Xbox One S and Scorpio clearly are efforts to clean the slate. But are those efforts too little, too late? X1 continually lags further and further behind PS4. Even at $50+ price advantage to the PS4, the Xbox fails to consistently best a 5+ year old handheld in an era we consider the handheld gaming to be dying.

By the time Scorpio arrives, will the Xbox One brand even be relevant to consumers? If X1 can't scrape together better sales with lower prices and comparable game 3rd party support to PS4, how well is a hardware revision really going to fare?

The gulf between X1 and PS4 continually widens - but it could widen even yet further if the Xbox One S and Scorpio fail to be truly competitive with the PS4 Neo and NX. And at this point, that's looking pretty likely as it really appears Microsoft is really hedging their bets on X1 given the renewed focus on PC as well a drought of 1st party games and announcements.

I'm not going so far to say the Xbox One is doomed, but I think it has a long, troubled road ahead to having several more healthy, vibrant years. I still think it will outlast 3DS, but only on the basis of NX having some kind of handheld form.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Around the Network

The XBO is the best selling Xbox system when launches are alligned. The 3DS is shaping to be the worst selling Nintendo handheld.

Now, I don't think the XBO will outsell the 360 (it will sell much less in Europe, and don't even mention Japan), but it could outsell the 3DS, since the Chinese console market was just opened and the Western market is bigger than ever. Now, where is the 3DS doing badly? In the West. And it won't ever release in China.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

I think so its good tracked in us and Undertracked in Eu and RoWXone is selling good most of the time: And with XOneS and Xbox Scorpio Xone familiy will grow live for 4-6 more years , the peak will be in 2 years



to me the Xbox brand is a slowing dying breed



PSN & XBOX GT : cutzman25

So my question is why would the 3ds be considered a failure given that its the 11th most sold console in history (Wikipedia numbers) and even now its only 2nd in monthly sales behind only to the Ps4.



Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
Outside of the USA and UK? The answer ranges from probably to certainly. But in the USA and UK, the Xbox One doesn't sell much worse than the PS4, with the gap in lifetime sales being quite modest.

Is it overtracked? That's hard to tell when there are no shipment numbers to compare against. Also, VGC hardware estimates have been very suspect in recent times, so all systems are either probably or definitely overtracked.

But with X1 getting some kind of price cut every 2-3 weeks, that premise seems a bit faulty doesn't it? Assuming both systems are stocked similarly. If it really were selling at the same clip as PS4, it wouldn't need so many extra price cuts on top of the existing price advantage.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

It can't be overtrasked if it's not tracked /jk
I would not doom Scorpio yet. The previous gen was divided in two half sales wise (Wii breaking records/ 360 dominating US/ PS3 stumbles -> Wii is forgotten / 360 sales slow down / PS3 rises), with two very different outcome. It could happen again.



RenCutypoison said:
It can't be overtrasked if it's not tracked /jk
I would not doom Scorpio yet. The previous gen was divided in two half sales wise (Wii breaking records/ 360 dominating US/ PS3 stumbles -> Wii is forgotten / 360 sales slow down / PS3 rises), with two very different outcome. It could happen again.

I think the same ms is making a lot of money with the xbox brand and with scorpio everything can change



Slarvax said:

The XBO is the best selling Xbox system when launches are alligned. The 3DS is shaping to be the worst selling Nintendo handheld.

Now, I don't think the XBO will outsell the 360 (it will sell much less in Europe, and don't even mention Japan), but it could outsell the 3DS, since the Chinese console market was just opened and the Western market is bigger than ever. Now, where is the 3DS doing badly? In the West. And it won't ever release in China.

Sure, but there's little to no growth in HW for X1. 360 had massive legs due to kinect.  It's quickly falling behind. China has been a major non-factor in X1 launch there.

Aren't Pokemon Sun and Moon the first Chinese-translated Pokemon games? VGC probably doesn't even track 3DS in China as it's sold as an iQue system...



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

It's definitely worrying for Xbox that it loses most non season weeks to the 3DS WW. The 3DS is winding down.

I can see it keeping sales up with the slim this year and scorpio next year but after that it could be a very slow last 3 years of the gen.