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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: Zelda will move 10m NX consoles "pretty quickly"

"I predict that the Nintendo NX will come in a box."




   

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Well we can only start predictions when they announce the console and what it all is about. If its just a console its probably not gonna sell that much and if its something special... well we will see



archbrix said:

Yep, Michael Pachter is speaking positive on Zelda BOTW and what it will do for NX sales.  So much for Nintendo's new big game/console.  

In all seriousness though, NX will likely meet or (probably) exceed WiiU's LTD sales in its first year, with Zelda being a major factor.  At least I hope so anyway.

 

http://zeldauniverse.net/2016/06/26/analyst-predicts-botw-will-shift-10-million-nx-consoles/

Well..... we're officially doomed as nintendo fans now.



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The perfomance of Zelda on NX will definitely be interesting and is very important for the future of Nintendo.



The only thing I can get it, it's even Pachter being excited for Zelda. That could be considered as a victory for Nintendo...



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the_dark_lewd said:
Depends how good the console is really. Zelda will definitely help though.

Exactly.  This is what I'm getting at.

It's true that Zelda doesn't have the sales numbers that other Nintendo IPs do, but it is a very highly revered and respected franchise.  A brand new, never before released Zelda at launch does make a pretty strong statement.  Remember, nobody is saying that BOTW itself will hit 10m pretty quickly, but having it at launch does help to provide faith in a new system.

And as someone else said, the Wii and the PS4 may be the only consoles able to boast selling 13m+ in their first year, but if XB1 had had a better launch price it might have achieved it as well.  And the PS2 would have soared past that number had it not been for massive shortages.  Also take into account that NX is not launching against any new systems either (systems with brand-new games anyway).

Finally, as dark_lewd said, it is still mostly dependent on the NX itself being a hit with a strong launch lineup, a good price, and its overall direction.  Seeing as how this is make or break for Nintendo, I'm being optimistic that it could reach the 13m mark by the end of March 2018.  But it could just as easily be the WiiU all over again (albeit with a better launch title).  Time will tell.



vivster said:
Nuvendil said:

Dwindling?  I would hardly say that's a fair assessment.  The original Twilight Princess is the best selling Zelda ever (not counting the absurd number of OoT rereleases :P ).  Skyward Sword sold over 4 million with the Wii's reputation shot to hell, the Wii U already announced with an HD Zelda demo being shown on it, in a year competing with Skyrim and with absolutely no advertisement whatsoever.  Not saying it will sell 13 million in its first 12 months but Zelda at launch is a heck of a lot better than most launch lineups.  I mean, Xbone had Rise: Son of Rome and the PS4 had Killzone Shadowfall as their two big exclusive games, neither one of which was memorable in any way other than technical achievements.  And yet they both had good launches and the PS4 had a great first year.  But it's more down to marketing than anything else.  Exclusives and launch titles are tools, you have to use them right.  

Yeah but how does a 5 million unit game sell 10 million NX consoles? One that's also available on the Wii U which will make people even more hesitant to switch to NX.

I'm not saying the NX will sell badly (though less than 10m for sure) but I don't think Zelda is helping it that much.

I would say Breath of the Wild is looking more potentially at Twilight Princess numbers, it's more in line with what is popular these days than Skyward Sword was back when it launched.  Also, console launch window is a good time for your heaviest hitters to land, they get a sales boost from the early adopters.  As for the Wii U version, if the NX version is visually and performance wise superior, then I imagine most will opt for that version.  Also, the Wii U's install base is pretty small, smaller than the GameCube when Twilight Princess came around.  I imagine it wil lhave minimal impact on the performance of the NX and Breath of the Wild on the NX.  And lastly, game sales don't directly correlate to their hardware boost.  At launch, it's not just about "I must have the console for THAT game" and more about a show of force from the console maker, demonstrating a commitment to heavy hitter content and/or a major advancement over its prior console.  Killzone Shadowfall has only sold a bit over 2.5 million, Knack only  1.65 mil, and Infamous: Second Son only 2.74 mil.  None of these have anything remotely close to a 50% attach rate relative to the PS4 sales at the end of 2014.  But the fact they were there combined with excellent marketing gave people confidence in the PS4 platform over the Xbone platform.  Again, exclusives and launch titles are tools.  Zelda is as strong a center piece as any.  However, it can't do it alone and we will see when the NX gets its conference what other titles will make up the 2017 NX lineup.  

Look at the Wii, a great example of making use of launch titles and first year exclusives: Twilight Princess and Wii Sports were the centerpieces (moreso Twilight Princess, Wii Sports took off way more than Nintendo thought it would) but the knowledge that Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3 and other high quality heavy hitters were coming really helped grab people's interest and maintain it.  Were all of those equal level successes sales wise?  No, but their presence gave the console a strong image.  


I wonder if there is a conspiracy theory out there about Patcher on this. Like he only said this because he wanted the NX to fail.



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10 million? No way. 5 million, tops.