Please consider the following interview from before the launch of the Xbox One

11/6/2013 GameIndustryBiz Writes:

As evidenced by the 40-foot console constructed in a Vancouver parking lot recently, Microsoft expects Xbox One to be big. Speaking with GamesIndustry International at the X13 showcase event in Toronto yesterday, Microsoft Canada's Xbox director of marketing Craig Flannagan put the November 22 launch into perspective.

"I've been here for the launch of Xbox 360. I was here for the launch of Kinect. This is far and away the biggest launch we've ever done," Flannagan said. "It's the most hardware we've ever produced. It's the most we've ever pre-sold. We're preselling a little over 2-to-1 from what we did with Xbox 360. The momentum on launch has been really good. And we didn't have a 40-foot console at the launch of the 360, either."

As for how Xbox One will fare against the PlayStation 4 and Wii U, Flannagan pointed to Xbox Live and the company's focus on social integration as two differentiating factors that will give it the edge. He also said he was proud of the game lineup, saying Xbox One exclusives walked out of E3 with twice the awards of both competitors.

"Xbox One is going to start ahead, in terms of the experience we can deliver," Flannagan said. "And because we're built for the future, we're going to stay ahead. I think there is not a better experience you can buy this holiday, and there will not be a time this generation where there's a better experience you can buy than Xbox One...And it's probably going to be a pretty long generation. We're probably here for a while because we're built for the future. This is a console that will last you, conservatively a decade, if I had to put a bet down today."

The idea of a launch Xbox One lasting a decade brings to mind the Red Ring of Death and Microsoft's notoriously unreliable Xbox 360 launch hardware. When asked if he's heard consumers expressing concerns about the Xbox One's durability, Flannagan said, "Not really."

"We feel great about where the hardware is at right now," Flanagan said. "Our yields are good. It's allowing us to produce more consoles than we ever have for a launch. We feel great about how the hardware is performing."

While Flannagan expects the hardware purchased this month to keep running years into the future, he doesn't expect it to offer the same experience. Just as the Xbox One went through multiple different dashboards and overhauled feature sets over the course of the last eight years, so too will the Xbox One evolve.

"Much like 360, Xbox One's not going to look a whole lot five years from now like it does on November 22, 2013. I don't know where it's going to go, but that's kind of fun because we're built for the future. We do have a connection; we can change what things look like and how it performs."

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-11-06-xbox-one-will-last-conservatively-10-years-says-microsoft

End of Interview

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So everyone has 20/20 hindsight vision but was 10 years really realistic even back in 2013?

Yes, but do you think It was ever Microsoft's intention to have the Xbox One last for a decade without any new hardware?

A 10 year console life is relatively normal now. Add that in to the fact that the 360 was in a great position neck and neck with ps3 for the previous gen and I don't feel like they were being unrealistic at all. 10 years doesn't mean they are waiting until 2023 to launch the next console, it means they are supporting that one until 2023.

Okay, so that's probably the Xbox One they used in the "40% smaller" images.

Really, though, I'm still kind of amazed that more people at Microsoft didn't see the problems the Xbox One would have at launch.

Also, I think both Sony and Microsoft both overestimated "social integration" as a selling point.

Good, give the Scorpio 6 years on the market before it gets replaced.

Yes, I have to agree with you there.  I think it was the competition with Sony and basically getting buried that made Microsoft want a reset.  If they could have got by with the Xbox One for 10 years there is no reason to think that they wouldn't.   For the reasons you stated I think it is safe to say that Scorpio is a 9th gen consoles. 

I would say it isn't safe to call Scorpio anything until we actually know more about it.  Right now it is either a whole new console iteration that happens to support 100% BC, or it is exactly like the PS Neo which is not a new gen at all just a more powerful PS4, or it is something completely different.  All we know is it has great specs and launches next year.

If I had to bet on it, I would say it is more PS4 Neo than it is 9th gen xbox.

Either way though, none of that negates the fact that MS could support the XB1 for 10 years, just like they supported the 360 for that long despite launching the XB1 before the 360 turned 10.  Just like Sony supported the PS3 for now almost 10 years while also having launched the PS4 before 10 years.  Just like Sony supported the PS2... you see where this is going.

In a way, it resembles the PC graphics card market where new hardware comes more frequently but compatibilty is (allegedly) still there

Yup.  Nintendo, get with the program lol!

Well, you see the thing is, I think that the reason for Microsoft's Scorpio announcement has more to do with being proactive.  I think that when the supposed specs leaked for Neo, and with Nintendo pushing back the unveiling of the NX, Microsoft saw itself as killing two birds with one stone.  Phil Spencer said that Project Scorpio would be the most power console when it released... I'm sorry he said he belives.  To me this indicates that he doesn't know if either Sony or Nintendo will present a more powerful console.  Jumping in line can have its rewards but there is also risk involved.  There is no way that Xbox overtakes Sony this gen so I think that the most immediate threat to XBox is actually the NX.   Zelda had a stronger showing than any of Microsoft's games.