This basically sums up my thoughts exactly. At the end of the day New hardware every 2 - 3 years isnt going to be breaking the bank for most people and for those that dont want to im sure you will continue to be able to use the old versions for atleast a normal console cycle.

I don't get where or how  some people are arriving at these theories when everything in the industry points to it not being the case. 

The games will always be made for the hardware that commands the largest install base. So the current 60M install base between the PS4/XB1 will be more important than the 6-10M Neo/Scorpio by the end of next year. 

The cheaper consoles will also always sell more than the more expensive consoles till the more expensive ones come down in price. 

Devs will make their game for the PS4/XB1 as they always have,  Then when they habe finsihed, go into a Neo/Scorpio preset and change the output to 4K or increase the levels of Certian effects if the rez is remaiming at 1080p. Its really not gojng to be anything more extensive than this, the relative install bases just wont allow it.

And it wont be every 2-3yrs, more like 3-4yrs. And the most shocking thing to me in all this; if you have a PS4, you miss out or nothing but 4k or a little more eye candy is you decide not to buy the Neo. If 1080p is ok with you, thrn the Neo is of absoluteky no value to you. YOU DONT HAVE TO UPGRADE cause you are missing out on nothing. Its not even really an "upgrade".

But yh, lets all freak out, act like the world is ending, cats sleeping with dogs..... and all that, cause what is about to happen isnt somwthing thats been in the PC space for.... well, forever. 

This is turning consoles into phones. I like consoles because I know devs will optimize for THAT machine for 5 years or more. Now what am I gonna keep upgrading every couple years and trading in the old one and transferring stuff and getting new versions of games? This makes a ton of hassles and consoles will not sell as well when they're coming out every couple years since people will get numb to their launch hype. It's a bigger deal when something only comes a couple times a decade compared to every 2-3 years.

So for devs it's a rather pointless extra effort for that minor install base that can run the game anyway. (no access to new customers)
For users it's a rather pointless upgrade, bad value for money
For progress it's introducing a mill stone going forwards, unless next gen still happens, making the upgrade even less value for money.

I fully agree that what you wrote is probably gonna happen. Not a Neo spec 2 though, more likely to be a one time thing per generation. I remain under the impression this is all a byproduct from planar die shrinks having reached the end of the line and the switch to finfet architecture. I could be wrong though, I'm very curious to know what's inside the XBox One S. It's still bigger than a ps4, 28nm planar with some tweaks is my guess. $299 with same starter HDD isn't exactly much cheaper.

Basically not much will change. Instead of going down to 249 price point, prices will remain higher for longer. The sales curve will slow down and we're in for another long generation. Which is good news for psvr, gets a chance to develop before next gen arrives with 4K glasses. That's what I expect from Sony anyway. MS might have other plans, iterative Win 10 box.

Anyway it's going to be boring if all we have to speculate about is hardware upgrades. A new generation always stirs the imagination with new possibilities and new ips appearing. No way I'll ever get hyped enough to buy a hardware upgrade day one. I lost interest in PC upgrades over 6 years ago and now only play on my laptop occasionally. Same might happen with iterative consoles.

I think this will have a chilling effect on consoles, and in particular for Xbox One/Scorpio. It's not all bad for Microsoft though. I just helped a friend upgrade his PC after he saw the E3 Microsoft conference. He had a standard Dell tower with an i3-3770 and onboard Intel graphics (8GB DDR3-1600, 250GB SSD, 1TB HDD). We put in an Nvidia 970 OC edition and clocked it beyond 980 performance for less than $300, and he sold his launch X1 and 19 games for $300. (with kinect, headset, and extra controller). Now he won't have to pay for XBL, can still play all the upcoming Xbox games, and gets a better performance path than Scorpio will offer in 18 months.

By the time Scorpio comes out we will be on the Nvidia 1100 series, in which case a 1160 should be slightly better than current 1070 cards for around $200ish. AMD's Vega and Polaris refreshes should also be available offering compelling value.

Long story short, by going to iterative consoles it starts to make sense to just dump the console cycle and go to PC unless you love Sony exclusives. I respect Sony and what they've done with PS4, but Neo is meh to me. I believe they should have just refreshed it silently for 4K/Bluray video and slotted in for the same price. After all the new APU is certainly cheaper than the old one at launch.

I should preface that by saying that of course PC isn't for everyone. For average consumers it may seem scary or confusing, and prebuilt gaming systems are often crappy or expensive or both, lol. But for someone that already has a halfway respectable desktop, adding a GPU is cake (and less $$ than a new console unless you go bananas).

Yup... pretty much what i think. Though i dont feel its useless for consumers and devs alike lol. I think if done right, the more "last minute" a dev leaves the Neo/Scorpio modes the more to exactly what they are marketed as they are. Meaning, the devs just make a base mode of the game, and pretty much just set that exact same game to output at 4K on the Neo/Scorpio. 

That way they aren't really doimg much at all and the consumers that bought those boxes get to say they are playing that game at 4K and will have better AA to show off in pics. 

As for the pricing, i do think the core consoles are going to hit $199/$249 no later than fall 2017 with their upgrades coming in at $399/$499. 

Yh, sucks on the generation thing, but i can pretty much say ehat they are really doing here is getting rid of the "generation" console model. It just makes absolutely zero business sense. And it took mobile phones and mobile OSs to show that to them. But thats as far as the comparisons go tho, we arent going to be seeing new consoles every uear or Two. More like every 3-4yrs.

I am kinda excited about something when it comes to these iterative consoles though, I think they are more likely to drive tech adoption in the console space at a faster rate than ever before. Reason being that they have a safety net now. Sony can very well choose to make a $600 box with M.2 SSD expansion option, HBM2 ram and all the other fancy stuff you could throw into a box kmowing fully well that they don't really need you to buy that box. A few people will get it, and they will make a few at first, then the following year they can start droppong its price. 4yrs later, its at $349 too.