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May 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware and software numbers up!

Forums - Sales Discussion - May 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware and software numbers up!

Mr. Sega said:
Aquamarine said:

Hello! I remember you! I'm the same person, just a lot more cynical and reserved since I was burned so badly by NeoGAF moderation when I finally got NPD to help out. I don't really participate in forums anymore but I still like to help out with numbers.

What's cool about right now is NPD is actually sanctioning this data. Remember NPD George / NDP Mulcair on GAF? That was my friend and he was actually from NPD! Even though he got unceremoniously and unfairly banned by GAF mods, he's still open to the idea of sharing data...so we don't have to worry about leak nonsense when we can get some real data like back in 2007-2010. It's pretty cool.

 

I have limits on what I'm allowed to share, and obviously I'm not going to go past those limits because I don't want to get in trouble (like back when NPD had their old, shitty management who used to harass me nonstop). I'll share a bunch of software numbers tomorrow morning (it's 2 AM here in Manhattan).

 

Your limit is 5 HW and 5 SW?

Not 5 exculsively...I usually can do almost all the Top 10 (not literally every number) along with some ball-park ranges for some titles and a few bundle / SKU splits. Like in April I gave NBA 2K16, Dark Souls 3, MLB 16, Star Wars Battlefront, The Division, Quantum Break, Madden NFL 16, FIFA 16, UFC 2, Black Ops 3, NBA 2K16, Star Fox Zero, and very small ranges for Ratchet and Bravely Second...as well as broad ranges for Hyrule Warriors Legends, Pokemon Rumble World, Twilight Princess HD, Fire Emblem Fates, Tales from the Borderlands, etc.



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Aquamarine said:
Vinniegambini said:

A

Q

U

A

M

A

R

I

N

E

!

Hello! I remember you! I'm the same person, just a lot more cynical and reserved since I was burned so badly by NeoGAF moderation when I finally got NPD to help out. I don't really participate in forums anymore because of what happened but I still like to help out with numbers.

What's cool about right now is NPD is actually sanctioning this data. Remember NPD George / NDP Mulcair on GAF? That was my friend and he was actually from NPD! Even though he got unceremoniously and unfairly banned by GAF mods, he's still open to the idea of sharing data...so we don't have to worry about leak nonsense when we can get some real data like back in 2007-2010. It's pretty cool.

I have limits on what I'm allowed to share, and obviously I'm not going to go past those limits because I don't want to get in trouble (like back when NPD had their old, shitty management who used to harass me nonstop). I'll share a bunch of software numbers tomorrow morning (it's 2 AM here in Manhattan).

I'm so happy you're back! Though I'm still a little apprehensive that the Aqua advertised here, is the same as the one on GAF. Could you maybe enlighten me about what we used to talk about when we messaged each other back in the day ;) If it's truly you, once again I'm really happy and would love to catch-up.



Vinniegambini said:
Aquamarine said:

Hello! I remember you! I'm the same person, just a lot more cynical and reserved since I was burned so badly by NeoGAF moderation when I finally got NPD to help out. I don't really participate in forums anymore because of what happened but I still like to help out with numbers.

What's cool about right now is NPD is actually sanctioning this data. Remember NPD George / NDP Mulcair on GAF? That was my friend and he was actually from NPD! Even though he got unceremoniously and unfairly banned by GAF mods, he's still open to the idea of sharing data...so we don't have to worry about leak nonsense when we can get some real data like back in 2007-2010. It's pretty cool.

I have limits on what I'm allowed to share, and obviously I'm not going to go past those limits because I don't want to get in trouble (like back when NPD had their old, shitty management who used to harass me nonstop). I'll share a bunch of software numbers tomorrow morning (it's 2 AM here in Manhattan).

I'm so happy you're back! Though I'm still a little apprehensive that the Aqua advertised here, is the same as the one on GAF. Could you maybe enlighten me about what we used to talk about when we messaged each other back in the day ;) If it's truly you, once again I'm really happy and would love to catch-up.

PM'ed



Intrinsic said:

The only problem with that is, absolutely nothing stops somy from also making a slim and releasing it for $250. Or even $199 if they really wanted to and leave the PS4k at $350/$399 as the premium option. 

There is nothing MS can do. And all this will get a lot worse. The truth is their one saving grace so far is that sony is settlimg on making as much as possible from each individual PS4 sale so they haven't gone aggressive and slashed prices. Just imagine what happens if sony makes a super cheap PS4 option priced at $199. 

I really do think a $250 slimline model will work. Past price reductions have worked, at least on the short term. The last one didn't do nearly as much, as April was still down YoY, but the March-to-April decline was smaller than the ones for the PS4 and Wii U, so at least the temporary price cut did slow down the bleeding. Plus it was April. The XBO may simply be at about peak potential at $300 and/or with the current model. The OXbox and 360 had similar problems with poor sales growth. The OXbox's second price cut didn't do much of anything, and it took three price cuts before it really hit its stride, and the 360 didn't really experience any significant growth until the 360S was released, with prior price cuts giving boosts of several months that ran out of steam and sale dropping back to previous baselines:

 

Also, the idea that the XBO is a lost cause "because PS4 domination" or whatever is a claim without basis in reality. The PS2 was unquestionably more dominant than the PS4 is, yet two of the three price cuts to the Xbox had a significant effect on sales. This generation is much closer than the sixth, and while the PS4 has had a commanding lead since it was reduced to $350, there is no reason to assume that the XBO cannot follow in the footsteps of its predecessors and end up a late bloomer. Shrink it down, give it an attractive price (no more than $300, preferably $250), and it should start to move more systems. And FWIW, compared to previous Xbox systems, the XBO isn't doing horribly, though last month was definitely a very bad month:



Shadow1980 said:

Thanks for the number, Aqua. Now it's chartz time!

Thank you for giving those numbers perspective



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Aquamarine said:
Vinniegambini said:

I'm so happy you're back! Though I'm still a little apprehensive that the Aqua advertised here, is the same as the one on GAF. Could you maybe enlighten me about what we used to talk about when we messaged each other back in the day ;) If it's truly you, once again I'm really happy and would love to catch-up.

PM'ed

Would you be able to give us sales data for uncharted by any chance? Appreciate what you do btw.



aLkaLiNE said:
Aquamarine said:

PM'ed

Would you be able to give us sales data for uncharted by any chance? Appreciate what you do btw.

Most likely, yes. I'll access the data in the morning.



Aquamarine said:
aLkaLiNE said:

Would you be able to give us sales data for uncharted by any chance? Appreciate what you do btw.

Most likely, yes. I'll access the data in the morning.

Thank ya.



binary solo said:

I know that generations aren't necessarily determined by power, but seriously, if it's true that NX has about the power level of Xb one how can it be called gen 9? Surely NX is gen 8.2, especially if Neo and Scorpio are actual power upgrades but still called PS4 and Xb one NX must still be regarded as fitting into the 8th gen.

I had a thread on this a while back, but in my opinion, if the NX ends up spending its best years competing directly with the PS4 & XBO and doesn't square off against the PS5 and Xbox 4 until well past its peak, it should be considered an 8th-gen system. But some people are intent on using a simplistic "NES=3rd gen, SNES=4th gen, ... Wii U=8th gen, therefore NX=9th gen" approach. But this isn't the first time a company released two systems in the same generation (Atari released the 2600, but then released the more powerful 5200 to compete more directly spec-wise with the Intellivision and Colecovision, which outclassed the 2600 in terms of power). I think generations should be defined primarily as a cohort of systems that spend their prime years competing directly with each other.



PS4 with good sales, slightly over 200,000, thanks to Uncharted 4. It seems U4 isn't that far from 1 million either, and digital will surely add up.
Xbox One did...worse than most predictions, mine included. It risked to sell less than 100,000, despite no new SKU official news affecting sales, like back in May 2014. They really need that Slim, curious to see how much it'll do though: it's a different situation compared to 2010 for MS.
Wii U going out with its usual wimp...but well, if Nintendo's expecting just 800,000 WW for the entire year, the lack of anything is expected.

I hope we get numbers / ranges for a good chunk of games, including
Bayonetta 2 LTD (ONE DAY I'LL GET IT, I SWEAR :P )
Valkyre Chronicles Remastered
Star Fox Zero
Bravely Second
Doom/Overwatch/Battleborn sales across the different SKUs (I want to make comparisons with Steam sales, when possible :P)
Pokken Tournament
Ratchet & Clank / Quatum Theory's second month

Probably asked a lot,but we should get stuff about some of the games I listed for sure.