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Forums - Sales Discussion - How much do you think Kingdom hearts 3 has to sell

 

How much do you think Kingdom hearts 3 has to sell

4million times on PS4 and 500.000 on XBOX 35 33.65%
 
3million times on PS4 and 150.000 on XBOX 19 18.27%
 
6million times PS4 and 500.000 XBOX 20 19.23%
 
9million times PS4 and 1million XBOX 8 7.69%
 
I don't care anymore the... 22 21.15%
 
Total:104
aLkaLiNE on 01 June 2016
thatguymarco said:
KH3 doesn't look like the most expensive game ever, and it's clear that games like FFXV and FFVIIR have a much bigger budget. It wouldn't surprise me if 3 million copies overall would be all they need to sell for the game to be considered a success, it'll sell more than that, I predict around 5 million if they play their cards right, but I really doubt that it's going to surpass KH1 in terms of sales.

Keep in mind this will be the first console title to be Multiplat - kh1 and kh2 are PlayStation exclusive. I'd also be surprised if it doesn't inevitably wind up on PC (given what's happened with final fantasy) where it will probably garner strong interest. The franchise has a dedicated fanbase. 



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Azhraell on 01 June 2016

More than kh2 probably, unless the game sucks which I doubt



Pinkie_pie on 01 June 2016
aLkaLiNE said:
thatguymarco said:
KH3 doesn't look like the most expensive game ever, and it's clear that games like FFXV and FFVIIR have a much bigger budget. It wouldn't surprise me if 3 million copies overall would be all they need to sell for the game to be considered a success, it'll sell more than that, I predict around 5 million if they play their cards right, but I really doubt that it's going to surpass KH1 in terms of sales.

Keep in mind this will be the first console title to be Multiplat - kh1 and kh2 are PlayStation exclusive. I'd also be surprised if it doesn't inevitably wind up on PC (given what's happened with final fantasy) where it will probably garner strong interest. The franchise has a dedicated fanbase. 

Multiplat or not, it wouldnt make much of a difference sales wise . Im sure the game will sell alot more on the ps4, around 10:1. Xbox one owners simply dont care about this franchise or jrpgs for that matter.



Mystro-Sama on 01 June 2016

What ever it is it will reach it.



aLkaLiNE on 01 June 2016
Pinkie_pie said:
aLkaLiNE said:

Keep in mind this will be the first console title to be Multiplat - kh1 and kh2 are PlayStation exclusive. I'd also be surprised if it doesn't inevitably wind up on PC (given what's happened with final fantasy) where it will probably garner strong interest. The franchise has a dedicated fanbase. 

Multiplat or not, it wouldnt make much of a difference sales wise . Im sure the game will sell alot more on the ps4, around 10:1. Xbox one owners simply dont care about this franchise or jrpgs for that matter.

Hardly a JRPG when half the cast are American characters. There's a lot more appeal for this specific franchise and I imagine it could break 1 million copies on X1 pending word of mouth. Perhaps I'm optimistic though



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outlawauron on 01 June 2016
aLkaLiNE said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Multiplat or not, it wouldnt make much of a difference sales wise . Im sure the game will sell alot more on the ps4, around 10:1. Xbox one owners simply dont care about this franchise or jrpgs for that matter.

Hardly a JRPG when half the cast are American characters. There's a lot more appeal for this specific franchise and I imagine it could break 1 million copies on X1 pending word of mouth. Perhaps I'm optimistic though

Well, the ratios were about that kind when it was PS3/360. With PS4/X1, the margins aren't going to be as nice I would expect.



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leo-j on 01 June 2016

I anticipate near 10 mili



 

mM
Crymassive on 01 June 2016
Keybladewielder said:

Knowing Square-Enix, it'll probably need to sell 5+ million for them to consider it successful.

I'd say it'll sell between 4m and 5m.

P.S. Not the OP and me having identical avatars

:D 



DannyDesario on 02 June 2016

I don't think Square will make their money back. I don't think this game will reach expectations sales. It's a huge budget, you can infer by FFXV needing to sell 10 lifetime for Square to be satisfied, and that's taking into account it wasn't in continuous development for 10 years and all the marketing. I say 4-5.5 million overall to break if it's heavily marketed (It's Disney so it will be) and it will sell 2-3.5 million overall. Remember man, Japan pushed over a million units for both of the main entries and Japan doesn't care about consoles anymore unless it's Persona, Dragon Quest or From Software, and even then they only contribute 750k best case scenario, which doesn't include KH.  All that and you factor in the fact that the mainline series has been on a haitus for 11+ years and the spinoffs/remasters don't even break 2 million after 2010..... Not looking good IMO



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aLkaLiNE on 02 June 2016
outlawauron said:
aLkaLiNE said:

Hardly a JRPG when half the cast are American characters. There's a lot more appeal for this specific franchise and I imagine it could break 1 million copies on X1 pending word of mouth. Perhaps I'm optimistic though

Well, the ratios were about that kind when it was PS3/360. With PS4/X1, the margins aren't going to be as nice I would expect.

Last gen was different than this gen though for a few reasons. I think it'd be more fair to compare how games are selling on current gen, as I believe the western market is more aware or receptive towards such titles this time around.

 

some examples for North America, where the bulk of X1 sales are ~

Dark Souls 3 (PS4) - 450k

Dark Souls 3 (X1) - 160k

Roughly 2.8:1 sales ratio.

 

MGSV (PS4) - 1040k

MGSV (X1) - 360k

2.9:1 sales ratio

 

FF Type-0 (PS4) - 360k

FF Type-0 (X1) - 150k

2.4:1 Sales ratio 

 

So if we can imagine that KH3 will sell equal to or better than 3:1, Sony needs to sell around 3 million copies in North America. I think that is achievable with what the install base will be by the time the game launches. The caveat to that is that these numbers don't consider the Uk, another strong territory for X1 which I think can at least do 100k which leaves 900k for NA, which assuming the 3:1 ratio for Japanese games, means around 2.7 million in NA for Sony. Suddenly we start to reach the realm of possibilities. I also expect Kh3 to do better than 3:1 sales wise on Xbox. Perhaps a 2.6:1 ratio seems like a good amount.