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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 worldwide sales top 40 million

Congrats Sony. Over 40m in the hands of consumers. In a year that will be 60m. The force is strong with Playstation!!



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Intrinsic said:
justagamer25 said:

VGC is 2 weeks "behind" so you should be adding those weeks on to the difference plus one of those weeks is uncharteds release which should see a spike so more like above 1m difference

Yes VGC is currently as of the 7th and this data from sony is as of the 22nd. 

VGC as of the 7th is claiming 40.7M, sony as of the 22nd says "over" 40M.

Even if VGC adjusts  down by two weeks prior to uncharted release those weeks (according to VGC) typically has a baseline of around 150k/week. That means that if we adjust VGC down then we have around 40.1M at its curtent date. 

Either way, its not up to 1M overtracked. Thats less than a 5% error margin. Thats not bad. 

Im not saying its not overtracked. I'm saying having less than a 5-10% error margin for LTD sales for something that has sold over 40M isnt that bad at all.

Lol. It's not a 5% margin of error, it's a 25% margin of error. It's horrible tracking, because Sony gave us numbers when it was at 35.9 million. You should calculate margin of error from last official sales update, not from launch lol.

It's a horrible margin of error because everyone that follows sales and shipment updates could have given a much closer number than what VGC is giving. That removes the point of VGC's own hardware tracking.



Teeqoz said:

Lol. It's not a 5% margin of error, it's a 25% margin of error. It's horrible tracking, because Sony gave us numbers when it was at 35.9 million. You should calculate margin of error from last official sales update, not from launch lol.

It's a horrible margin of error because everyone that follows sales and shipment updates could have given a much closer number than what VGC is giving. That removes the point of VGC's own hardware tracking.

I don't understand.

Why should we calculate margin of error for a LTD sales forcast but take sales tracking of onky the last 6 months?

I don't know..... maybe its just me and I am doing it wrong...... but

If sony gives a LTD sales number, isnt the most obvious thing to do just be to take the current LTD numbers on VGC and see how close or far off they are? I mean, we are talking about LTD tracking here aren't we?

Sony has it at over 40M as at the 22nd of May. VGC has it at 40.7M two weeks before sonys date. How is that being 25% off? 

For LTD sales to be over 25% off, then VGC should be at over 50M now compared to sony's 40M.

Someone should pls correct me if I am wrong. 



http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=204720744

Omg look at this gif. Hadn't seen this version before. Made me lol xD



Intrinsic said:
Teeqoz said:

Lol. It's not a 5% margin of error, it's a 25% margin of error. It's horrible tracking, because Sony gave us numbers when it was at 35.9 million. You should calculate margin of error from last official sales update, not from launch lol.

It's a horrible margin of error because everyone that follows sales and shipment updates could have given a much closer number than what VGC is giving. That removes the point of VGC's own hardware tracking.

I don't understand.

Why should we calculate margin of error for a LTD sales forcast but take sales tracking of onky the last 6 months?

I don't know..... maybe its just me and I am doing it wrong...... but

If sony gives a LTD sales number, isnt the most obvious thing to do just be to take the current LTD numbers on VGC and see how close or far off they are? I mean, we are talking about LTD tracking here aren't we?

Sony has it at over 40M as at the 22nd of May. VGC has it at 40.7M two weeks before sonys date. How is that being 25% off? 

For LTD sales to be over 25% off, then VGC should be at over 50M now compared to sony's 40M.

Someone should pls correct me if I am wrong. 

Because it's not impressive that VGC are able to update sales figures given officially by Sony. The point of VGC is providing info that isn't available elsewhere.

In december, Sony announced 35.9 million sold. Now Sony announce 40 million sold. Difference =  4.1 million sales

35.9 million sales vs VGC's ~41 million for the same date (the PS4 has been selling about 150k a week and 150k*2=0.3m. 40.7m+0.3m=41m. Difference = 5.1 million sales.

VGC difference from Sony's numbers = 1 million

1/4.1 (the official numbers) ~25%

 

 

Do you really think that this is "impressive tracking" by VGC? I could've done better. Heck, I've been saying that the PS4 was tonnes overtracked ever since Sony announced shipments, so in fact I *did* do better.



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Teeqoz said:
Intrinsic said:

I don't understand.

Why should we calculate margin of error for a LTD sales forcast but take sales tracking of onky the last 6 months?

I don't know..... maybe its just me and I am doing it wrong...... but

If sony gives a LTD sales number, isnt the most obvious thing to do just be to take the current LTD numbers on VGC and see how close or far off they are? I mean, we are talking about LTD tracking here aren't we?

Sony has it at over 40M as at the 22nd of May. VGC has it at 40.7M two weeks before sonys date. How is that being 25% off? 

For LTD sales to be over 25% off, then VGC should be at over 50M now compared to sony's 40M.

Someone should pls correct me if I am wrong. 

Because it's not impressive that VGC are able to update sales figures given officially by Sony. The point of VGC is providing info that isn't available elsewhere.

In december, Sony announced 35.9 million sold. Now Sony announce 40 million sold. Difference =  4.1 million sales

35.9 million sales vs VGC's ~41 million for the same date (the PS4 has been selling about 150k a week and 150k*2=0.3m. 40.7m+0.3m=41m. Difference = 5.1 million sales.

VGC difference from Sony's numbers = 1 million

1/4.1 (the official numbers) ~25%

 

 

Do you really think that this is "impressive tracking" by VGC? I could've done better. Heck, I've been saying that the PS4 was tonnes overtracked ever since Sony announced shipments, so in fact I *did* do better.

Thanks for clearing that up. Got it now. 



Fully deserved



Don't forget these are numbers sold through customers and there could be 1 million PS4 consoles on the shelf worldwide



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Qwark said:
Don't forget these are numbers sold through customers and there could be 1 million PS4 consoles on the shelf worldwide

1 million is possible, but I think 600-700k is more likely given the PS4's current pace and weekly sales. If it sells around 150k or less every week up until now, that could mean seven weeks or so of supplies in actual stores, which seems like a lot for what is a slow time of year. 1 million uncluding the whole channel and end of assembly is not unlikely though.

Teeqoz: I feel exactly the same way about the tracking, we very recently had a shipment update and still fail to approach more grounded weekly sales. Q1 tracking 2016 was off over 30%, slight corrections were made after official statements and now we're apparently back to a near-similar margin of error. It's just too big and even if LT sales are not off by much, this discrepancy makes it near worthless to have discussions around weekly sales figures since they grossly misrepresent the actual state of the market, that's kind of an issue on a forum that is built on and around discussion of sales numbers, preferably their own at that. If these margins carry into the holiday season (which seems fairly likely from where I'm sitting), we could be looking at enormous sheer figures overtracked (a 25-30% miss on a good holiday week is easily several hundred thousand units, which translates into 1 million + in a good month, say December).



What does that make the USA percentage of the total LTD and YTD?