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Forums - Politics Discussion - What happens when Putin is gone?

antigin said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

Really that Kaczyński's quote seems to be interesting as well. Because in Russia long ago people predicted about NATO's help in overthrowing the governments in Georgia and Ukraine. The next target is supposed to be Belarus.

Many thought that the next will be Kazakhstan, but then they took off sanctions against Belarus. So suspicious.

Scisca said:

Don't forget that Ukraine had American and British guarantees as well. I know these documents had different headlines, but the fact stands. 

Ukraine did not declared a war on Russia, or anyone else. It's a civil war. They assigned it as a operation agains terrorists on eastern territories.

The worst thing in Ukrainian situation is that it is not as easy as it seems. I doubt that anyone except for the politicians really know what's going on here. Also I don't think that it will be solved anytime soon. Especially if Clinton becomes next US president. 



 

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He'll be replaced by the ruthless dictator, Phartin. Everyone knows Phartin is worse that Putin!

And after all of the Putin and Phartin, the real shit happens. God help us all.



Scisca said:

We are different than you. While we value our independence and sovereignity, you welcome every single invader with arms wide open. Russians come? We love you Mother Russia! Germans come? Herzlich willkommen! We have a very different mentality

You probably need to read a history book, mate

While *I personally* would indeed do what you say, my compatriots seem to be (and have been historically) nationalist enough to sacrifice their lives to defend this piece of dirt...

Scisca said:

Still, we're not paranoid. We have two of our neighbours fighting a war, it's only natural we're gearing up. Moreover, Poland is stepping up and starts to challenge Russia in the region in general. The whole V4 Group cooperation - we are stating to turn our ABC strategy into life. This is our natural role as the second largest nation in the region, we want to be the leaders of Central Europe. We know that in order to be able to truely challenge Russia, we need to have an army that even they have to respect. That's why we're increasing the spendings on army, we plan to increase the number of soldiers by 50% in the upcoming years and we've started training our Civil Guard - a couple hundred thousands of armed people trained in the use of firearms, with knowledge of tactics, knowing how to support the regular army and how to use guerilla tactics. We're also doing our uttmost in trying to get American troops to Poland.

We are gearing up, but then again - we're not living in the safest of times and we'd rather be safe than sorry. Instead of relying on a piece of paper and begging for American help, we want to be able to fend for ourselves. We still need a couple of years to achieve this point, I hope we'll have that time.

Okay... maybe I spoke too soon. I guess it's not about the Polish. Maybe it's because *you* are a bit naive, right?

Poland challenging Russia in the region? Haha.

We want to be leaders of Central Europe - Yeah, good luck. Maybe if Germany and Austria magically disappear tomorrow, you might have a shot.

We need to have an army that even they have to respect - You know they could basically steamroll Europe if they wanted to, right? Your *respectable* army would last a month or two if lucky. 

Not that any of this matters. Why would Russia want Poland? There's nothing to gain from attacking you. Or Latvia, for that matter.



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“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

- George Orwell, ‘1984’

Scisca said:
m0ney said:

Will there be war for power? How likely is regional separatism? I am not concerned cos my country is in NATO and EU but it is interesting what politics enthusiasts and russians think.

You live in Latvia and you think you're safe? Wow. That's very brave if you ask me. Totally not what I was expecting.

The number of scenarios for Russia is huge. It is close to falling apart yet again, it may stay the way it is, it may even grow. One thing is certain - there will be no democracy there, cause there is no need for it in the society and the country is run by a mob basically either way. They will be searching for a new strong leader soon. Question is - at what cost? What cost for the Russians and other surrounding countries.

Also, USA and China will play a major role in the whole process. As always, Russia is a giant on clay feet.

And you think you have democracy in poland? These new media laws are heavily cutting freedom of speech.

Most countries sorounding russia have worse human rights records and rule of law than Russia, this includes the baltic countries where like 30% of the population cant vote and have no citizenship.

The only democracies are japan and finland



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Scisca said:
m0ney said:

Sorry but you don't get it, Russia will never attack a NATO country.

I think you don't get it, that it's common knowledge that NATO has absolutely no way to defend the Baltic Countries in case of an attack. If Russia attacked you, all NATO could do is impose sanctions. After all, do you even know the wording of art. 5 of the NATO Treaty? It's not as strickt as many believe and by no means does it tell other NATO members to join the war. If you were attacked by Russia, no European country (except for Poland) would give a shit. All they would care about would be securing a steady flow of oil, gas and other resources from the East and to secure their business' in the conquered areas. USA? That would be a bit tougher, they would have to calculate many variables. Is it worth it to start a war with Russia over some tiny countries that were part of Russia less than 25 year ago? What impact would it have for USA in the Pacific? In Korea and Japan? In the Middle East? How much would it cost? Hell, how to even get American troops there!? The Baltic Sea is under Russian control, so what should they do - land in Germany and drive half a continent? Can you imagine that? Helping you would depend solely on the result of a calculation of costs for America - and in my opinion, you'd be sacrificed just like Crimea and Donbas. Hopefully, at least Poland could secure a bit of Lithuania - the part that's historically Polish. Wouldn't want it falling to Russian hands.

Don't forget that Ukraine had American and British guarantees as well. I know these documents had different headlines, but the fact stands. You are at the mercy of Russia, you are the next target on their list and your allies have no means of helping you. I honestly have no idea how you can be this arrogantly confident. Russia does what it wants to do. It has always been this way.

Our legendary President Lech Kaczyński said years ago: "First it's Georgia, after that will come Ukraine, after Ukraine - the Baltics, and after the Baltics, possibly, Poland". And what happened? Russia subdued Georgia. Then it invaded Ukraine. Now everybody is eyeing the Baltics...

Whats up with the fear mongering and paranoia? Russia went into georgia because georgia killed its own people the south ossetians. They went into ukraine because crimea is majority russian, and ukraine banned the russian language etc. Poland has no russian population so after your own logic they would stop with poland so why this fear?



Ruler said:

Most countries sorounding russia have worse human rights records and rule of law than Russia, this includes the baltic countries where like 30% of the population cant vote and have no citizenship.

Right, we should give citizenship to people who are not loyal to our country, who don't want to learn our language and who celebrate the occupation of our country on 9th of May.



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Psychotic said:
Scisca said:

We are different than you. While we value our independence and sovereignity, you welcome every single invader with arms wide open. Russians come? We love you Mother Russia! Germans come? Herzlich willkommen! We have a very different mentality

You probably need to read a history book, mate

While *I personally* would indeed do what you say, my compatriots seem to be (and have been historically) nationalist enough to sacrifice their lives to defend this piece of dirt...

Scisca said:

Still, we're not paranoid. We have two of our neighbours fighting a war, it's only natural we're gearing up. Moreover, Poland is stepping up and starts to challenge Russia in the region in general. The whole V4 Group cooperation - we are stating to turn our ABC strategy into life. This is our natural role as the second largest nation in the region, we want to be the leaders of Central Europe. We know that in order to be able to truely challenge Russia, we need to have an army that even they have to respect. That's why we're increasing the spendings on army, we plan to increase the number of soldiers by 50% in the upcoming years and we've started training our Civil Guard - a couple hundred thousands of armed people trained in the use of firearms, with knowledge of tactics, knowing how to support the regular army and how to use guerilla tactics. We're also doing our uttmost in trying to get American troops to Poland.

We are gearing up, but then again - we're not living in the safest of times and we'd rather be safe than sorry. Instead of relying on a piece of paper and begging for American help, we want to be able to fend for ourselves. We still need a couple of years to achieve this point, I hope we'll have that time.

Okay... maybe I spoke too soon. I guess it's not about the Polish. Maybe it's because *you* are a bit naive, right?

Poland challenging Russia in the region? Haha.

We want to be leaders of Central Europe - Yeah, good luck. Maybe if Germany and Austria magically disappear tomorrow, you might have a shot.

We need to have an army that even they have to respect - You know they could basically steamroll Europe if they wanted to, right? Your *respectable* army would last a month or two if lucky. 

Not that any of this matters. Why would Russia want Poland? There's nothing to gain from attacking you. Or Latvia, for that matter.

Maybe from your perspective, but from our point of view you guys almost never fight We're joking that you're a unique nation, that makes state-of-the-art weapons, yet has never used any of it On the other hand, that saved you Prague, while Warsaw was obliterated

What I've written is not my naive wishful thinking - it's what the Polish government is doing as we speak. This is happening, google translate this and see for yourself:

Expanding army by 50% (Macierewicz is our Minister of Defence):

https://www.wprost.pl/kraj/10004278/Macierewicz-zapowiada-50-procentowy-wzrost-armii-w-ciagu-najblizszych-lat.html

Civil Guard or Territorial Defence (the article says they plan to form 380 companies, armed with machine guns, granade launchers, anti-aircraft cannons, mobile anti-aircraft rocket launchers, anti-tank rockets and anti-tank granades):

http://www.polska-zbrojna.pl/home/articleshow/18942?t=Obrona-terytorialna-to-nie-bedzie-zabawa-w-sluzbe-wojskowa

Yes, Poland is challenging Russia. We have always been doing that. Sometimes we won, sometimes we lost - but we're not affraid to stand up against them. I know on a map it looks ridiculous, but if you realize that most of Russia is baren wasteland and that in Europe there are 80 mil Russians vs 40 mil Poles, this suddenly stops being so ridiculous. V4 Group has 65 mil people and a much more modern economy - why surrender from the start? We see no reason, instead we're trying to use the immigration crysis to help us unite the region (not only V4, but also with Baltics, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria, possibly Austria - we'll see how the elections there go ). So far so good, but we know there's a lot to be done and we're working on it, our government makes no secret of it. We're building massive gas hubs, so that we can supply gas from outside of Russia to every country in the region (including Ukraine and Belarus, all the way down to Croatia). We are pushing for the contruction of Via Carpatia - the highway connecting pretty much all of Central Europe, from Bulgaria all the way to the Baltics, this would help our economies to cooperate more. We're doing this shit and nobody is hiding it. We want to reshape the region to make countries cooperate more and to be its leaders, we hope to do what Turkey did in the past years.

@Germany and Austria needing to disappear - Austria is a small country. Rich, but small - no way they could challenge what we're doing, if anything - they may join us if Germany pisses them off even more. And Germany? Leaders of Central Europe? Hahaha! Never. They don't understand the region and most importantly - they care more about Russia than they do about Central Europe. They will sacrifice us all every time, that's the way they are. That's the thing - Poland is the natural leader of Central Europe, cause we share the interests of other countries here. Germany has different interests, often contrary to ours (just watch the news ). Obviously, they are doing what they can to stop Poland from doing what we're doing, but I'm optimistic for now You may be laughing now, but you'll see in a few decades, trust me. We are starting to think big.

@Russian army steamrolling Europe - uhmm... no. Actually, hell no. That's a myth. For one - they wouldn't come close to attacking France or UK, cause it would end up in some serious beating. Just look how they are struggling in Ukraine. Their army isn't what it looks like on paper. Our government has a simple idea - we see what Russians are capable of, we feel no need to attack anyone, but we want to be able to defend ourselves. For now we'd still lose badly, but we're basically starting to turn our country into a military bog - organized in a way that would make it impossible for Russians to advance and cost them dearly to try and operate in our country. That's why we're building the whole Territorial Defence with thousands of people who aren't soldiers, but are trained, equipped and organized. We want to get to the point in which Russians know that it's not worth touching us, I hope we still have enough time.

@Why would they want to attack? - Cause they are Russians and that's what they do. Why did they need Crimea and Eastern Ukraine? Why did they need Georgia? For as long as the history of our countries spans, they have always wanted to conquer us, they invaded us 3 times in the 20th century alone. We're not asking the question "why" anymore, we take it for granted and try to be prepared for the future. Heck, Russian army left Poland in 1992 - that's not ancient history!



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My Vita to-buy list: The Walking Dead, Persona 4 Golden, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, TearAway, Ys: Memories of Celceta, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, History: Legends of War, FIFA 13, Final Fantasy HD X, X-2, Worms Revolution Extreme, The Amazing Spiderman, Batman: Arkham Origins Blackgate - too many no-gaemz :/

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Guys, you're overestimating the power of one guy. Putin couldn't do anything if he was totally alone. He's a part of some team. And I sure, that that team has possible scenarios in the case of something bad happens to Putin.

Read Tolstoy. Single person means nothing. Masses and hystory is what decides.



Ruler said:
Scisca said:

You live in Latvia and you think you're safe? Wow. That's very brave if you ask me. Totally not what I was expecting.

The number of scenarios for Russia is huge. It is close to falling apart yet again, it may stay the way it is, it may even grow. One thing is certain - there will be no democracy there, cause there is no need for it in the society and the country is run by a mob basically either way. They will be searching for a new strong leader soon. Question is - at what cost? What cost for the Russians and other surrounding countries.

Also, USA and China will play a major role in the whole process. As always, Russia is a giant on clay feet.

And you think you have democracy in poland? These new media laws are heavily cutting freedom of speech.

Most countries sorounding russia have worse human rights records and rule of law than Russia, this includes the baltic countries where like 30% of the population cant vote and have no citizenship.

The only democracies are japan and finland

We do, it's still young but it's getting better and better as we're eliminating post-communists from the public sphere.

What's wrong with the media laws? What cutting of the freedom of speech? I have no idea what you're talking about. Trust me, in Germany you can only dream of having freedom of speech as we have it in Poland. The fact that your government was capable of forcing ALL MEDIA to remain silent about Koeln for a week was a shock for us. If it wasn't for Internet, nobody would ever know! That's heavily cut freedom of speech! Believe it or not, but our journalists were shocked by that and all agreed that there's no way any government could do that in Poland. Doesn't matter which party ruled, it would be impossible. When it comes to freedom of speech, countries like Germany or Sweden aren't even close to us and we pity you very much.



Wii U is a GCN 2 - I called it months before the release!

My Vita to-buy list: The Walking Dead, Persona 4 Golden, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, TearAway, Ys: Memories of Celceta, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, History: Legends of War, FIFA 13, Final Fantasy HD X, X-2, Worms Revolution Extreme, The Amazing Spiderman, Batman: Arkham Origins Blackgate - too many no-gaemz :/

My consoles: PS2 Slim, PS3 Slim 320 GB, PSV 32 GB, Wii, DSi.