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Forums - Sony Discussion - What if MGS4 and GT5 P bombs.?

Parokki on 26 March 2008

This thread is another one that suffers from vague terms. In my opinion, a game bombs when it sell serious less than expected. You can drool at first week sales if you want, but ultimately it's lifetime sales that matter. Zack&Wiki wasn't a bomb at 300k and Heavenly Sword probably isn't a bomb at 800k, but Final Fantasy XIII or Super Mario Galaxy at 2M would be the biggest bomb of all time.

GT4:P did 1.4M in just Japan and Europe, so it's reasonable to assume GT5:P will do somewhere between a million and two worldwide. Under a million would probably be a bomb, but that doesn't look too likely.

As for MGS4, it's hard to predict. The series has been in a constant decline sales-wise, but the previous part had some valid excuses (released around a lot of big titles, sequels on the same console usually sell worse etc.). The earlier titles were also on the PS1 and 2, which were vastly more succesful than the PS3. How many of the people who bought the previous games were devoted fans that will buy the sequel no matter what, and how many just got it because it was a great game on a console they owned?

This is clearly impossible to know beforehand, but I would say the amount of serious fans is greater than with your average shootan game, but still well under half of all purchases. I think anything under 2M would count as a bomb (not likely, but bombing means "doing worse than expected" doesn't it?), anything up to 4M as good as expected, and anything over that surprisingly good.

This is not the PS2 we're talking about here, and some of you people are throwing around some truly ridiculous numbers. The PS3 has a very small userbase that isn't buying a lot of games, and pretty much every sequel to a PS2 game so far has sold less than its predecessor. Surpassing MGS3 might be possible if some truly desperate bundling occurs, but reaching the first two parts is utterly ridiculous.



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Noobie on 26 March 2008
rukusa said:
Noobie said:

So far all the discussion on the Sony forum is regarding how good MGS 4 and GT5 P is going to be... and nobody try to remember the past trend... apart from few partial hits like DMC4 and (i don't remember any other) :), all the games have mostly bombed on PS3

So to cut the long story short.. i would say there is a reasonable chance that MGS4 and GT5 P bombs... So far PS3 has no million seller on day 1. and i m not sure if it will have 1 game like this in this yr atleast.

So there are 2 question wot amount of sales will determine that the MGS4 or GT5 P is a success or a bomb..

i think for GT5 P anything below 500k on week one in each Europe and NA is going to classify it as a bombed

For MGS4 i think anything below750k on week one in each Europe and NA and 400k for Jap is going to classify it as a bombed...

Second question is wot is percentage chances of each of these games to get bombed again on PS3..

I would say there is a reasonable chance like 35% for them to get bombed...

So wot u say.?

 

 

-wat
Sounds like you havent been in the million seller section for the PS3 for a while now. Go back and check it out champ.

-Sounds more like what you want to happen, meaning what wont happen.

- hahahaha. Dude youre hilarious.

-

 

Jesus lord man, youre trying too hard to classify everything you want to not see succeed as a bomb.


I meant to say 1 million in week one..? is there any such game for PS3.? do lemme know..



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darthdevidem01 on 26 March 2008

imo the OP has gone completely mad..



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Noobie on 26 March 2008
Parokki said:
This thread is another one that suffers from vague terms. In my opinion, a game bombs when it sell serious less than expected. You can drool at first week sales if you want, but ultimately it's lifetime sales that matter. Zack&Wiki wasn't a bomb at 300k and Heavenly Sword probably isn't a bomb at 800k, but Final Fantasy XIII or Super Mario Galaxy at 2M would be the biggest bomb of all time.

GT4:P did 1.4M in just Japan and Europe, so it's reasonable to assume GT5:P will do somewhere between a million and two worldwide. Under a million would probably be a bomb, but that doesn't look too likely.

As for MGS4, it's hard to predict. The series has been in a constant decline sales-wise, but the previous part had some valid excuses (released around a lot of big titles, sequels on the same console usually sell worse etc.). The earlier titles were also on the PS1 and 2, which were vastly more succesful than the PS3. How many of the people who bought the previous games were devoted fans that will buy the sequel no matter what, and how many just got it because it was a great game on a console they owned?

This is clearly impossible to know beforehand, but I would say the amount of serious fans is greater than with your average shootan game, but still well under half of all purchases. I think anything under 2M would count as a bomb (not likely, but bombing means "doing worse than expected" doesn't it?), anything up to 4M as good as expected, and anything over that surprisingly good.

This is not the PS2 we're talking about here, and some of you people are throwing around some truly ridiculous numbers. The PS3 has a very small userbase that isn't buying a lot of games, and pretty much every sequel to a PS2 game so far has sold less than its predecessor. Surpassing MGS3 might be possible if some truly desperate bundling occurs, but reaching the first two parts is utterly ridiculous.

very sensible reply... My question was also wot is the expected threshold for these games to be declared not bombed... and wot they expect have a chance not to be bombed... but so far no one has understood the question of the thread.. or tried to answer it appropriately other than bashing me for being a XBOX fanboy...

that is a very genuine question... i hope they don't bomb but still with PS3 is has so far been not a very easy ride...



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Joeykanga on 26 March 2008

Its unlikely for them to bomb, but if they do, the PS3 is doooooomed.



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Lone_Canis_Lupus on 26 March 2008
Noobie said:
Parokki said:
This thread is another one that suffers from vague terms. In my opinion, a game bombs when it sell serious less than expected. You can drool at first week sales if you want, but ultimately it's lifetime sales that matter. Zack&Wiki wasn't a bomb at 300k and Heavenly Sword probably isn't a bomb at 800k, but Final Fantasy XIII or Super Mario Galaxy at 2M would be the biggest bomb of all time.

GT4:P did 1.4M in just Japan and Europe, so it's reasonable to assume GT5:P will do somewhere between a million and two worldwide. Under a million would probably be a bomb, but that doesn't look too likely.

As for MGS4, it's hard to predict. The series has been in a constant decline sales-wise, but the previous part had some valid excuses (released around a lot of big titles, sequels on the same console usually sell worse etc.). The earlier titles were also on the PS1 and 2, which were vastly more succesful than the PS3. How many of the people who bought the previous games were devoted fans that will buy the sequel no matter what, and how many just got it because it was a great game on a console they owned?

This is clearly impossible to know beforehand, but I would say the amount of serious fans is greater than with your average shootan game, but still well under half of all purchases. I think anything under 2M would count as a bomb (not likely, but bombing means "doing worse than expected" doesn't it?), anything up to 4M as good as expected, and anything over that surprisingly good.

This is not the PS2 we're talking about here, and some of you people are throwing around some truly ridiculous numbers. The PS3 has a very small userbase that isn't buying a lot of games, and pretty much every sequel to a PS2 game so far has sold less than its predecessor. Surpassing MGS3 might be possible if some truly desperate bundling occurs, but reaching the first two parts is utterly ridiculous.

very sensible reply... My question was also wot is the expected threshold for these games to be declared not bombed... and wot they expect have a chance not to be bombed... but so far no one has understood the question of the thread.. or tried to answer it appropriately other than bashing me for being a XBOX fanboy...

that is a very genuine question... i hope they don't bomb but still with PS3 is has so far been not a very easy ride...


 Did you not see my post? And the post you're quoting makes a lot of sense...pay attention to it. Just because something doesn't sell 1 million in a week doesn't mean it bombed. How can you expect new IPs to sell 1 million in a week? Most of the PS3 games that have "bombed" have been new IPs, no?

 Again, look at my previous post. I can see where you're coming from, but MGS and GT aren't new IPs. MGS and GT are proven titles that will sell well whether the game is good or not. Maybe GT5:P...but that's the Prolouge, shouldn't expect it to sell more than the actual GT5 when it comes along. You're basing your assumption purely off of new IPs that you say should have sold a million in one week.



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makingmusic476 on 26 March 2008
NJ5 said:

I think bombing/not bombing is entirely up to the expectations of the developer/publisher, and it seems that Konami set the bar pretty high for MGS4, especially in Japan. Didn't they say they wanted 1 million sold there, whereas the previous games have only done ~800k on the much more successful PS2?

 


If you include MGS2: Substance and MGS3: Subsistence then MGS2/3 did sell over a million in Japan.



makingmusic476 on 26 March 2008
Dodece said:
Prologue regionally will do very well in Europe probably easily reaching over a million units in the first week. However in North America I suspect the title will fall on deaf ears struggling to reach four hundred thousand, and in Japan nobody is going to take any notice at all. This title will struggle to break one and a half million units globally.

Motorstorm a launch title on the PS3 one of the best in the first year has yet to break three million in sales. Yes it was a good title, because the PS3 had a lousy first year on the market. No racer in recent memory has broken a hundred thousand in Japan. I actually think Excite Truck has come the closest. The game then splits between Others and North America with the Other region retaining greater sales.

Basically the racing market on this console is smaller then is expected, and will be supremely front ended. The result probably being that the title will not exceed three million units this year. The larger racing market on the 360 might have done better with this title. However being that it is on the PS3 and the consoles past performance in spite of the titles pedigree. We are not going to see ungodly sale. Two million in the first month, and another million throughout the rest of the year at best.

I wouldn't consider the title a bomb. The only thing that can blow up here are unrealistic expectations. Which some posters undoubtedly have. Visions of a major console seller, or a slayer of the sales giants. This title is relegated to the B list of sellers. With the likes of a Mass Effect. I think we will find that the likes of an Assassins Creed will end up being a better seller. Even having better legs.

 MS came out in Marh of last year. That's not really a launch title.  And as others have said, GT5P is already out in Japan and has sold over 220k.



Bobbuffalo on 26 March 2008

Bomb? I don't think so. GT5 is pre selling very much and MGS had lots of fans. Maybe won't score 1 million in a week but not bomb.

I do really doubt that those games would sell more consoles, though. Those are games targeted more to the gamers that had PS3 but not new comers.



Noobie on 26 March 2008
Lone_Canis_Lupus said:
Noobie said:
Parokki said:
This thread is another one that suffers from vague terms. In my opinion, a game bombs when it sell serious less than expected. You can drool at first week sales if you want, but ultimately it's lifetime sales that matter. Zack&Wiki wasn't a bomb at 300k and Heavenly Sword probably isn't a bomb at 800k, but Final Fantasy XIII or Super Mario Galaxy at 2M would be the biggest bomb of all time.

GT4:P did 1.4M in just Japan and Europe, so it's reasonable to assume GT5:P will do somewhere between a million and two worldwide. Under a million would probably be a bomb, but that doesn't look too likely.

As for MGS4, it's hard to predict. The series has been in a constant decline sales-wise, but the previous part had some valid excuses (released around a lot of big titles, sequels on the same console usually sell worse etc.). The earlier titles were also on the PS1 and 2, which were vastly more succesful than the PS3. How many of the people who bought the previous games were devoted fans that will buy the sequel no matter what, and how many just got it because it was a great game on a console they owned?

This is clearly impossible to know beforehand, but I would say the amount of serious fans is greater than with your average shootan game, but still well under half of all purchases. I think anything under 2M would count as a bomb (not likely, but bombing means "doing worse than expected" doesn't it?), anything up to 4M as good as expected, and anything over that surprisingly good.

This is not the PS2 we're talking about here, and some of you people are throwing around some truly ridiculous numbers. The PS3 has a very small userbase that isn't buying a lot of games, and pretty much every sequel to a PS2 game so far has sold less than its predecessor. Surpassing MGS3 might be possible if some truly desperate bundling occurs, but reaching the first two parts is utterly ridiculous.

very sensible reply... My question was also wot is the expected threshold for these games to be declared not bombed... and wot they expect have a chance not to be bombed... but so far no one has understood the question of the thread.. or tried to answer it appropriately other than bashing me for being a XBOX fanboy...

that is a very genuine question... i hope they don't bomb but still with PS3 is has so far been not a very easy ride...


 Did you not see my post? And the post you're quoting makes a lot of sense...pay attention to it. Just because something doesn't sell 1 million in a week doesn't mean it bombed. How can you expect new IPs to sell 1 million in a week? Most of the PS3 games that have "bombed" have been new IPs, no?

 Again, look at my previous post. I can see where you're coming from, but MGS and GT aren't new IPs. MGS and GT are proven titles that will sell well whether the game is good or not. Maybe GT5:P...but that's the Prolouge, shouldn't expect it to sell more than the actual GT5 when it comes along. You're basing your assumption purely off of new IPs that you say should have sold a million in one week.


i agree partially with you... The sales of heavenly Sword, warhawk are reasonable but nothing to get excited abt. Similarly the initial sales of uncharted were in pretty sorry state..but it really has shown some very impressive legs..

But wot u will say abt R&C.... it was an old IP..and still has got very poor sales in my view.. it should have gone upto 1.5 - 1.75 million atleast...

So overall i will say that PS3 games sales have been from poor to just reasonable... So thats why i have some doubts abt MGS and GT5 P doing impressive from the start



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