So far all the discussion on the Sony forum is regarding how good MGS 4 and GT5 P is going to be... and nobody try to remember the past trend... apart from few partial hits like DMC4 and (i don't remember any other) :), all the games have mostly bombed on PS3

So to cut the long story short.. i would say there is a reasonable chance that MGS4 and GT5 P bombs... So far PS3 has no million seller on day 1. and i m not sure if it will have 1 game like this in this yr atleast.

So there are 2 question wot amount of sales will determine that the MGS4 or GT5 P is a success or a bomb..

i think for GT5 P anything below 500k on week one in each Europe and NA is going to classify it as a bombed

For MGS4 i think anything below750k on week one in each Europe and NA and 400k for Jap is going to classify it as a bombed...

Second question is wot is percentage chances of each of these games to get bombed again on PS3..

I would say there is a reasonable chance like 35% for them to get bombed...

So wot u say.?

I don't think GT5:P can bomb, unless extremly terrible sales, due to the fact that we will never know download sales which could be argrued forever, and the fact it isn't a full game.

Metal Gear Solid 4 won't bomb, so no point in discussing that.

well over a million GT:P have been pre ordered in i think europe or the uk so yer over a million in a week just in europe/uk

I think bombing/not bombing is entirely up to the expectations of the developer/publisher, and it seems that Konami set the bar pretty high for MGS4, especially in Japan. Didn't they say they wanted 1 million sold there, whereas the previous games have only done ~800k on the much more successful PS2?

Neither of them are going to bomb because they are both very popular franchises, and they will both be bundled. Also, GT 5 P has 1m pre-ordered in EU, so it will likely do at least 750k week 1

They did I believe. What's interesting to note though, is that each iteration of MGS has sold more than the last in Japan.

You could argue that it's because the install base for the PS2 was still growing but some sequels to other high profile games didn't sell as well as their predecessors.

The good thing is that games in Japan (and those in the MGS series in particular) are extremely front-loaded in terms of sales:

http://vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=1325
http://vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=3774
http://vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=1328

That means we'll know pretty soon after launch how the game will have fared.

Rough numbers for the first few weeks after launch, and then lifetime sales:

MGS: 350k, 101k, 64k, lifetime = 780k
MGS2: 470k, 95k, 56k, lifetime = 850k
MGS3: 494k, 115k, 79k, lifetime = 860k

According to this pattern, for MGS4 to do 1 million in its lifetime in Japan, it would have to do 450-600k in its first week and 80-180k in the second week. By Konami's own expectations, this will be the measuring stick for bombing/not bombing in Japan.

I dont think that MGS4 will sell more than a few million. It's target market is smaller than a lot of other games. I would say that GT5 would double MGS4 in terms of sales. So whatever GT5P gets, you can pretty much halve it to get the numbers for MGS.

But...that won't happen. Grant Turismo is......Gran Turismo. It CAN'T fail. That's like saying Halo will bomb. And the MGS4 bundle has already sold out in Japan.

There are no "What ifs" now

GT5 pro or GT5 will not bomb

MGS4 I doubt it will but who knows .. ...