ViciousVi said: The part about picking winners and losers...well nearly all economic policy involves choosing winners and losers. It's just the truth about economic decisions, especially trade, you have to make hard choices sometimes. The architects of NAFTA originally panned it as a way to increase job growth in the US. When it caused hundreds of thousands of job losses they pointed to the wage growth associated with the policy instead. Arguing that the growth in wages for the highest income earners offset the wages lost from lost jobs. This was solely the result of lowering trade barriers (though selectively, keeping certain ones in place). There are winners and losers here and they were chosen by policy, but it was a free-trade policy. The reality is you have to make decisions about who wins and who loses with all of these policies, you're only deluding yourself if you think you can figure out a way to make everyone better off everytime (sometimes you can, when things line up correctly, but thats rare). The idea that we should be against any protections because they favor one group over another is not really defensible and also i,t funnily enough, puts you on Sander's side in terms of his vote history. If you really believe in that line and held to it rigidly then you'd have to oppose every trade deal he did, because they explictly made decisions about winners and losers, favoring some groups over others.
Trade with illiberal regime may indeed be the best way to spread capitalism and it most definitely has benefited many peoples lives. However I would stop short of saying that any trade agreement with a illiberal regime is beneficial towards the promotion of democratic market society. It is easy to conceive how a struggling regime may actually use certain trade agreements to prolong their power. Not to mention that trade directly empowers these regimes by handing them much more money in taxes through their economies. In terms of China I think the jury is still out, and to be clear I'm an optimist and hope that our trade with them really has deteriorated the CPCs power. But if we take an analysis of where China is today and in 1970 almost all the progress is economic, not political. They are still ruled by an autocratic one party communist regime, they still forcibly abort children, they still spy on their citizens to a degree which would make the NSA blush, they still censor all their media heavily, hell they've scrubbed Tiananmen square from the national consciousness, many experts at this point view the Chinese democracy movement to have been in decline for several decades now (peaking in the 90s). There are other examples which can be used to support the idea though and it may be that trade even with illiberal regimes is a good thing sometimes, but I think there is a good case to be made that certain trade deals would be much better if crafted slightly differently. Sanders is admittedly a bit more rigid, finding that all of the proposed deals negatives outweigh the positives, however I firmly believe he and I are in the same essential camp. That trade can be good and it can be bad, we've done it badly for decades and we can do much better in the future. That doesn't mean closing our doors to everyone though. |
The difference is that when free trade causes somebody to "lose" it is because the governments are deciding not to interfere and choose who wins and who loses. They are only choosing (in this case) to not make barriers that give a group of manufacturers a shortage over their labor and which consequently allows them more market power over the sale of that labor than there otherwise would be in a worldly competitive market. You can say that is a chosen trade-off or the governments are picking for them to lose, but I see it more as the government deciding to let individuals do their own thing without further interference. So what is happening with a proper free trade agreement is that the government is getting out of the way and is not choosing winners or losers, even if the effects are that there will be winners and losers. People instead win or lose based on the accumulation of desires and trade-offs that we call the market (the decisions of every other person whom interacts with this "winner" or "loser".) That is desirable because it is less corruptible (although not uncorruptible), and allows for a more even/predictable playing field, albeit still a flawed one (there is no utopia.) Regardless of the utility argument that might arise, I think I prefer this to a central body of a few people who are solely able to decide things. And I never said nor implied that this would, "make everyone better off everytime ". Not being able to pick winners and losers isn't the same thing as there not being winners and losers. In capitalism, there needs to be losers just as much as winners because otherwise none of us has an idea which resources and jobs are valuable and which are not. This depends on prices which in turn depend on supply and demand. When the supply or demand is controlled, the prices are controlled, and this causes false signals which inelastic consumers and producers can't keep up with in turn creating an unpredictable economic situation and instable environment. I'd rather an impersonal spontaneous order arise to decide who wins and who loses rather than the choice of which special political group should win and which should lose via the mind's of human beings in power out of voting interests. I support the trade deals because they remove the ability of the state (through tariffs or other barriers) to manipulate who sells what in the market and for how much. Then I consider the utility arguments as well, as it is much more palpable than deonotoligcal ethical dillemas and abstract concepts of organization. If Bernie believes that the government has no place in demanding that individuals should or should not trade with individuals in other parts of the world because of the political apparatus that is present there is not in the direct control of these individuals then I guess we are in agreement. But I don't think he believes that. He seems to be one for democratically deciding economic decisions through politics - which I think is vastly more influencable and corruptible than letting natural emergent orders decide how somebody wins and how somebody loses, but also less efficient.
Having spoken with many friends from China, it is not perfect and change is happening very slowly, but it is a much better politcal landscape than it was in the 70's. They have hope for the future because most of the Chinese abroad learn liberalism in their universities and return to China modifying it as best they can within the context of the Chinese culture. My roommate in college was from Hong Kong, but his parents were born in mainland China and his grandparents still live there. He is in mainland China often when he is back home. His grandfather was a member of the communist party and a mid-level politician in the 70's, with a reasonable amount of power. My friend told me a story about how his grandmother decided to hoard a chicken from the collective farm to cook for the family, and was consequently paraded down the street with a sign around her saying "I support capitalism" only to be alleviated from harsher punishment because his grandfather pulled some strings. Or the constant struggle his grandfather would go through to keep the hardline communists and the reformists from killing and manipulating each-other and himself. His grandfather was even jailed for some weeks in this struggle. Also, with the internet the Chinese government knows that it still can't be doing things how they've done them in the past, but is slowly trying to maintain their power. My friend is quite frustrated with how slowly change has happened, especially recently with Beijing's involvement in Hong Kong, but that does not mean it isn't happening, and the China today is at least measurably less corrupt and dangerous to the individual freedoms of its people than 1970 China, even if it is not perfect.
You can't really separate economic freedoms and social freedoms anyway. What you enjoy, eat, think, say, do, etc all requires economic means of procuring, distributing, or achieving. It is often times through economic control that other rights can be controlled. So it does a lot toward other freedoms to be able to trade and to trade with whom you want. China today is still not there yet even economically, but as things loosen in all spheres: political, social and economical it will compound. Right now, this same friend says people in China are scared to rock the boat too much because it is doing so well compared to the past, but everyone realizes that China is in for some recessions in the very near future yet they blissfully ignore it, and the state tells them it is fine. Like with any other country, they are sorting things out, and it seems prudent to not make ourselves scapegoats for this very government to place all of their problems on. Totalitarian states do much better when they have reason to blame other countries, in particular the United States. North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, the Soviet Union, radical Islamist states, and even China have done it, and continue to do it. I can easily imagine what they would propogate to their populations if there were tariffs and trade restrictions right before a round of recessions, and the Chinese businessmen and their families are all going to know some anecdote in which they lost because of these tariffs. It would be much like how the American politicans (Trump in particular) fuel xenophobia and anger towards China (and Mexican immigrants) today, but worst because there are no/few strong dissenting opinions and alternative views. As long as the West shows them we're open to interacting with them and as long as we do interact with them, the Chinese government can't believably blame anybody but themselves when the boat does rock and the people want reformation.
Sorry for the dense walls haha. These topics are quite interesting and complex. I think this is an example of a good exchange of ideas. I definitely reframed my views, even if they didn't change entirely, and better understand Bernie's (and your) position.