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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediciton: NX will be....

 

Do you agree with that concept?

1. 40 24.10%
 
2. 28 16.87%
 
3. 73 43.98%
 
4. 25 15.06%
 
Total:166
Soundwave said:
MohammadBadir said:
To this day, I wonder how any sane person could think that a console/handheld with the same games would work as a legitimate strategy. Why even buy the 2 when you could buy the cheaper option?

Because Nintendo will be able to make a lot more games, or who says they can't make more the same number of games.

NX could have Mario Kart 9 and 10 ... you just wouldn't have a userbase split, where one of the game's is locked off from 3/4 of your user base like Mario Kart 8 is.

Or you could have say Super Mario 3D World followed by Super Mario Galaxy 3 instead of 3D Land and 3D World. I'd rather have that than two somewhat redundant games.

Unified platform doesn't mean fewer games or even fewer franchise oppurtunities, all it means is Nintendo can ensure all their top IP sell to ALL their audience base.

Right now, 3/4 Nintendo hardware buyers can't play Splatoon. Why? Because 3/4 Nintendo buyers this generation don't even have a Wii U to begin with.

The non-unified platform approach is not as great as traditionalists make it out to be. It's expensive ($500 for a Wii U + 3DS XL still), resource consuming (Nintendo has to make multiple versions of basically the same franchise), and forces large portions of the Nintendo buying audience to miss out on many games.

All that is moot because the console itself would be redundant. Think about it. Why would anybody buy both platforms? I honestly can't think of any reason besides playing some games at home and some outdoors, but only a minority would care about that. The console would be cheap and weak, and the handheld would be overkill. Nintendo would make more money getting you to buy 2 consoles and 10 games, rather than 1 platform and 10 games. Consumers would gain, yes,  but Nintendo wouldn't, and with their recent profit woes, it only makes sense that they'd go for the route that'd make more money. Plus we're talking about the company who doesn't even let you play Super Mario Bros 2 on 2 platforms without repurchasing them let alone modern games, lol.



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hoala said:
JustBeingReal said:

Your OP is basically saying "I can make any arbitrary prediction I like, without any basis to support it", that's not how a logical, evidentiary supported debate works. 

Thats why i even explained WHY I think its possible/likely. Just read the OP.

 

JustBeingReal said:
FYI that doodle thing isn't to be trusted, I can make as many poll votes as I like, change existing ones anyone has done, so you could have picked all of the choices you wanted to make the vote sway your way.

Really? Ok didnt know that. Feel free to make your own poll and see the results. Hell just show your friends that comparison pictures and ask them what looks better, as best friends that arnt that much gaming related and wotn be biased.

But also nice to see that YOU just changed the poll to "proove" your favour. Why not just accept that for the majortiy of people both look the same? Why do you need to manipulate that poll? Seems you arnt really feel confident about your opinion.

BTW i didnt made the poll here on forums because obviously this would just make sony fans voting for ratchet and nintendo fans voting for mario kart and wouldnt show anything. Thats why i spammed the poll in random minecraft videos on twitch.

I read the op more than once, you've not provided a single source from Nintendo hinting at this and none of Nintendo's own patents or comments point to this. You can keep thinking whatever you want it going to happen, I just provided you with multiple reasons why it is highly unlikely, Kimishima's statement about Nintendo moving away from Wii and Wii U's approach is enough to support Nintendo not going with weak specs or a redesigned version of the Wii U.

 

OMG you're really not going to try and argue about me being dishonest when I came out and stated that I changed the poll, it's obvious I did this to show the Poll wasn't legit and it's funny how the votes were already in MK8's favor.

I'm confident in my opinion, which is why I keep it, if any evidence was shown to support another outcome I'd do what any sane person would and change it. There are masses of comments on youtube gaming videos about Ratchet & Clank's visuals looking like a Pixar film, you don't get many people stating that about MK8, just the odd one here and there, but even then people talk about how bad it's AA is, the flatness of the textures, weak details in the geometry.

The Poll was a phony, now let's move on.



MohammadBadir said:
Soundwave said:

Because Nintendo will be able to make a lot more games, or who says they can't make more the same number of games.

NX could have Mario Kart 9 and 10 ... you just wouldn't have a userbase split, where one of the game's is locked off from 3/4 of your user base like Mario Kart 8 is.

Or you could have say Super Mario 3D World followed by Super Mario Galaxy 3 instead of 3D Land and 3D World. I'd rather have that than two somewhat redundant games.

Unified platform doesn't mean fewer games or even fewer franchise oppurtunities, all it means is Nintendo can ensure all their top IP sell to ALL their audience base.

Right now, 3/4 Nintendo hardware buyers can't play Splatoon. Why? Because 3/4 Nintendo buyers this generation don't even have a Wii U to begin with.

The non-unified platform approach is not as great as traditionalists make it out to be. It's expensive ($500 for a Wii U + 3DS XL still), resource consuming (Nintendo has to make multiple versions of basically the same franchise), and forces large portions of the Nintendo buying audience to miss out on many games.

All that is moot because the console itself would be redundant. Think about it. Why would anybody buy both platforms? I honestly can't think of any reason besides playing some games at home and some outdoors, but only a minority would care about that. The console would be cheap and weak, and the handheld would be overkill. Nintendo would make more money getting you to buy 2 consoles and 10 games, rather than 1 platform and 10 games. Consumers would gain, yes,  but Nintendo wouldn't, and with their recent profit woes, it only makes sense that they'd go for the route that'd make more money. Plus we're talking about the company who doesn't even let you play Super Mario Bros 2 on 2 platforms without repurchasing them let alone modern games, lol.

You've heard about the supplementary cloud computing patent right? It's possible that when you have the handheld and a console that both could work in tandem to share a portion of the processing load.

The handheld could get a boost when on the move through sending non latency sensitive tasks back to the console to be processed and the handheld handles latency sensitive ones. The 2 systems working together could make for a more powerful whole unit.

Imagine the handheld by itself is close to XB1 level and the console could be around PS4K, put the 2 together and you have the combined capabilities of both.

Allowing people to play games on the move, then boost visuals when your home would be a pretty big selling point for some IMO, though mainly the reason for unifying the library is to just give people more options and improve the possibility of them wanting to buy more than one Nintendo system.

Nintendo could actually gain if the console audience can now buy games that wouldn't have been available to them before and the handheld audience would potentially be even bigger, so that adds to the amount of potential customers and units of software that could be sold.



JustBeingReal said:

You've heard about the supplementary cloud computing patent right? It's possible that when you have the handheld and a console that both could work in tandem to share a portion of the processing load.

The handheld could get a boost when on the move through sending non latency sensitive tasks back to the console to be processed and the handheld handles latency sensitive ones. The 2 systems working together could make for a more powerful whole unit.

Imagine the handheld by itself is close to XB1 level and the console could be around PS4K, put the 2 together and you have the combined capabilities of both.

Allowing people to play games on the move, then boost visuals when your home would be a pretty big selling point for some IMO, though mainly the reason for unifying the library is to just give people more options and improve the possibility of them wanting to buy more than one Nintendo system.

Nintendo could actually gain if the console audience can now buy games that wouldn't have been available to them before and the handheld audience would potentially be even bigger, so that adds to the amount of potential customers and units of software that could be sold.

How expensive would that XBO handheld be? .-.

No, you're overestimating the amount of people who'd buy 2 expensive platforms to play the same games.



I don't think any sane person felt mario kart on wii u was technically impressive especially with the horrible aliasing and simple repeated textures but still a very beautiful game.

I still think the NX may have more cpu power and possibly high memory bandwidth but a weaker gpu than xbone or ps4. This gives it the ability to run all ps4 games, even add some more gameplay elements even if it can't match the visual presentation of ps4 or even xbone. The point already made that cartoon graphics require less resources is true if they don't need a realistic physics engine and texture and lighting is much more simplistic and more often repeated.

To be honest I've lost confidence in Nintendo and I'm unsure what the NX will be and whether I will want one. The wii and wii u have done a lot of damage for me with regard Nintendo's ability to release a competitive product capable of providing the games I want to play.



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JustBeingReal said:

I read the op more than once, you've not provided a single source from Nintendo hinting at this and none of Nintendo's own patents or comments point to this. You can keep thinking whatever you want it going to happen, I just provided you with multiple reasons why it is highly unlikely, Kimishima's statement about Nintendo moving away from Wii and Wii U's approach is enough to support Nintendo not going with weak specs or a redesigned version of the Wii U.

Nothing is hinting on a pwoerfull device either so thats redunant to talk about. its a prediction: not a 100% safe thing.

Here again the HINTS that the systme MIGHT be not powefull:

2 in 1 device with very similar architecture (i gave u sources to that). At the moment its not possible to build a portable device with ps4 like power for something below 400$. The losest you can get are gaming laptops with a gtx 960m (1400 gflops vs 1850 gflops ps4). But even those are 600$+ AND need a fence AND are way bigger then an usual handheld AND have poor battery life AND need to be plugged in for full power AND have often heat issues.

Nintendo already had problems with software development on wii u. Many games got delayed, released without full content (Splatoon, Mario Kart 8, Zelda Wii U, 3d World, Star Fox Zero). They also had problems to develop enough games at all. They will have more problems with better hardware (because worlds, gets bigger, graphics more beatifull, more details).

They already said they wont sell the system at a loss. Nintendo consoles in general are pretty cheap (around 200$ - 250$). The Wii U was their first expensive machine and it failed. The Wii was an in relation cheap system and it had great success.

Like already discusses several times, in terms of cartoony graphics the wii u can already produce very pretty games. The differences between an wii u and ps4 game arnt as big as they were in prev. generations. 



MohammadBadir said:
Soundwave said:

Because Nintendo will be able to make a lot more games, or who says they can't make more the same number of games.

NX could have Mario Kart 9 and 10 ... you just wouldn't have a userbase split, where one of the game's is locked off from 3/4 of your user base like Mario Kart 8 is.

Or you could have say Super Mario 3D World followed by Super Mario Galaxy 3 instead of 3D Land and 3D World. I'd rather have that than two somewhat redundant games.

Unified platform doesn't mean fewer games or even fewer franchise oppurtunities, all it means is Nintendo can ensure all their top IP sell to ALL their audience base.

Right now, 3/4 Nintendo hardware buyers can't play Splatoon. Why? Because 3/4 Nintendo buyers this generation don't even have a Wii U to begin with.

The non-unified platform approach is not as great as traditionalists make it out to be. It's expensive ($500 for a Wii U + 3DS XL still), resource consuming (Nintendo has to make multiple versions of basically the same franchise), and forces large portions of the Nintendo buying audience to miss out on many games.

All that is moot because the console itself would be redundant. Think about it. Why would anybody buy both platforms? I honestly can't think of any reason besides playing some games at home and some outdoors, but only a minority would care about that. The console would be cheap and weak, and the handheld would be overkill. Nintendo would make more money getting you to buy 2 consoles and 10 games, rather than 1 platform and 10 games. Consumers would gain, yes,  but Nintendo wouldn't, and with their recent profit woes, it only makes sense that they'd go for the route that'd make more money. Plus we're talking about the company who doesn't even let you play Super Mario Bros 2 on 2 platforms without repurchasing them let alone modern games, lol.

You are missing the point, the goal isnt to get people to buy multiple devices, its to get a higher amount of people to purchase A device and get into the Nintendo ecosystem by increasing the appeal of each individual device. More individual people in the ecosystem means more people to sell software to.

Take a look at games like Splatoon or Mario Maker, they have both sold very well, lets say 5 million each when all is said and done. How much would those games have sold if they had the 3DS install base to sell on in addition to the Wii U audience? If Smash Bros is anything to go by than they would likely both be 10+ million sellers.

Lets take a look at the 2015 lineup for 3DS/Wii U.

3DS had a few mid-large games in the first 1/3 of the year, Majora's Mask 3D, Monster Hunter 4, Xenoblade 3D. They also had a few mid-large games in the last 1/3 of the year, Happy Home Designer, Triforce Heroes, Super Mystery Dungeon. But what did it have in the middle 1/3 of the year? Nothing notable.

Now lets look at Wii U, pretty similar, it had Kirby, Mario Party, Splatoon in the first 5 months of the year and had Mario Maker, Yoshi, Xenoblade X in the last 4 months of the year but what did it have in the 3.5 months between Splatoon & Mario Maker? Nothing notable.

Here is what the 2015 lineup could have looked like with a unified strategy with mixing up the lineup a bit

January-Kirby Rainbow Curse

February-Majora's Mask 3D

March-Mario Party 10

April-Xenoblade Chronicles 3D

May-Splatoon

June-Yoshi's Woolly World

August-Super Mario Maker

September-Happy Home Designer

October-Triforce Heroes

November-Super Mystery Dungeon

December-Xenoblade X

Basically a mid-large Nintendo IP in each month. Now lets factor in the smaller, support games mixed in there like Codename STEAM, Fossil Fighters, Art Academy, Chibi Robo, Yokai Watch, Amiibo Festival.

Now add in the Japanese 3rd party games throughout the year like Monster Hunter 4, Etrain Mystery Dungeon, Story of Seasons, Attack on Titan, Legend of Legacy, Senran Kagura, Hatsune Mika, SMT: Record Breaker, etc.

Now add in the kid/family/casual games like Lego Jurassic World, Lego Dimensions, Skylanders, Disney Infinity, Guitar Hero, Just Dance & licensed IP based on shows/movies.

Now add in the quality indie titles like Affordable Space Adventures, Mutant Mudds, Runbow, Dont Starve, Terraria, Minecraft, Fast Racing Neo, Year Walk, Steamworld Heist, Shantae, etc.

When combined the lineup for 3DS+Wii U is very solid in a given year but seperately they both suffer from droughts and miss out on many games. Basically 3DS would be more appealing if it had access to all the Wii U games and vice versa.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

MohammadBadir said:
JustBeingReal said:

You've heard about the supplementary cloud computing patent right? It's possible that when you have the handheld and a console that both could work in tandem to share a portion of the processing load.

The handheld could get a boost when on the move through sending non latency sensitive tasks back to the console to be processed and the handheld handles latency sensitive ones. The 2 systems working together could make for a more powerful whole unit.

Imagine the handheld by itself is close to XB1 level and the console could be around PS4K, put the 2 together and you have the combined capabilities of both.

Allowing people to play games on the move, then boost visuals when your home would be a pretty big selling point for some IMO, though mainly the reason for unifying the library is to just give people more options and improve the possibility of them wanting to buy more than one Nintendo system.

Nintendo could actually gain if the console audience can now buy games that wouldn't have been available to them before and the handheld audience would potentially be even bigger, so that adds to the amount of potential customers and units of software that could be sold.

How expensive would that XBO handheld be? .-.

No, you're overestimating the amount of people who'd buy 2 expensive platforms to play the same games.

I've given examples of the costs of components required for this early, TBH the patent talking about that handheld mentioned that the processing performance would be closest to XB1, so that basically means anywhere from 655GFlops to 1.575Tflops, because the range would be between half the power of XB1 and half way between XB1 and PS4.

Considering that chip costs usually account for about 1/3rd of final retail graphics cards or APU's retail price this is what the cost of making those parts would be to AMD, then add a profit per each chip for AMD to then ship to Nintendo.

AMD are targeting a release price of $349 for a 40CU Polaris GPU, that would cost AMD $116 per GPU chip, Nintendo could use a 10CU GPU and clock it at 1000Mhz or slightly faster to hit XB1 GPU speeds in the handheld, the chip would only cost AMD $29 to make, AMD's profit could be $5 per chip, $1 for shipping each chip, total price to Nintendo $35 for their GPU, that's still going to make them $250M if Nintendo sold 50M handhelds.

Obviously this isn't an SOC, but I doubt the CPU side of the APU would be much more expensive, built profits would probably stay the same for AMD, but say the CPU and other gubbins (decoding, cache or anything else) adds $10-20 that's a full SOC for $55, pretty cheap for the level of tech involved and a pretty good bet on what prices could cost.

Batteries (as I pointed out to the OP) aren't very expensive (a 20,000 mah charger retails at under £30, I've seen 10,000 mah ones for £11.99), same goes for modern 1080p tablet panels, built in speakers and eveything else needed to make up a decent handheld like this.

This could make Nintendo a profit launching at $249 and people would have a gaming handheld as powerful as XB1 or very close too it, pretty marketable.

 

Any amount of crossbuying and extra sales of would be something for Nintendo, it's all one install base and the volume of games they can release is expanded because they only have to make one 3D Mario game per release or Zelda or whatever, the console gets them all, the handheld does too or maybe the console gets everything and the handheld misses out on some dedicated console games, but it still helps to boost sales.

The processing supplement patent would just help to move hardware in the area of the market where tech heads want to get the most out of their Nintendo games. It's all about giving gamers more options, to better provide for their gaming needs.

 

The point of having a console is for console gamers, they aren't going to buy a handheld, so why should Nintendo prevent them from playing the huge catalog of games that release on those devices?

Nintendo could end up with an install base of over 100 million customers. If even 10% of these people buy a new system every few years that would make Nintendo quite a lot of money and older units could be dropped in price to entice a new audience to buy Nintendo again.

Personally I'm of the opinion that NX is a windows/android/apple style operating system, that can play all future Nintendo games and the company will use that to put the games at the forefront, but sell different spec device based on various different market's needs.



JustBeingReal said:

 I've given examples of the costs of components required for this early, TBH the patent talking about that handheld mentioned that the processing performance would be closest to XB1

what patent? Source?

 

Btw your calculation of prieces is really entertaining. Just cutting it into half, half the cu´s = half the priece. lol.



zorg1000 said:
MohammadBadir said:

All that is moot because the console itself would be redundant. Think about it. Why would anybody buy both platforms? I honestly can't think of any reason besides playing some games at home and some outdoors, but only a minority would care about that. The console would be cheap and weak, and the handheld would be overkill. Nintendo would make more money getting you to buy 2 consoles and 10 games, rather than 1 platform and 10 games. Consumers would gain, yes,  but Nintendo wouldn't, and with their recent profit woes, it only makes sense that they'd go for the route that'd make more money. Plus we're talking about the company who doesn't even let you play Super Mario Bros 2 on 2 platforms without repurchasing them let alone modern games, lol.

You are missing the point, the goal isnt to get people to buy multiple devices, its to get a higher amount of people to purchase A device and get into the Nintendo ecosystem by increasing the appeal of each individual device. More individual people in the ecosystem means more people to sell software to.

Take a look at games like Splatoon or Mario Maker, they have both sold very well, lets say 5 million each when all is said and done. How much would those games have sold if they had the 3DS install base to sell on in addition to the Wii U audience? If Smash Bros is anything to go by than they would likely both be 10+ million sellers.

Lets take a look at the 2015 lineup for 3DS/Wii U.

3DS had a few mid-large games in the first 1/3 of the year, Majora's Mask 3D, Monster Hunter 4, Xenoblade 3D. They also had a few mid-large games in the last 1/3 of the year, Happy Home Designer, Triforce Heroes, Super Mystery Dungeon. But what did it have in the middle 1/3 of the year? Nothing notable.

Now lets look at Wii U, pretty similar, it had Kirby, Mario Party, Splatoon in the first 5 months of the year and had Mario Maker, Yoshi, Xenoblade X in the last 4 months of the year but what did it have in the 3.5 months between Splatoon & Mario Maker? Nothing notable.

Here is what the 2015 lineup could have looked like with a unified strategy with mixing up the lineup a bit

January-Kirby Rainbow Curse

February-Majora's Mask 3D

March-Mario Party 10

April-Xenoblade Chronicles 3D

May-Splatoon

June-Yoshi's Woolly World

August-Super Mario Maker

September-Happy Home Designer

October-Triforce Heroes

November-Super Mystery Dungeon

December-Xenoblade X

Basically a mid-large Nintendo IP in each month. Now lets factor in the smaller, support games mixed in there like Codename STEAM, Fossil Fighters, Art Academy, Chibi Robo, Yokai Watch, Amiibo Festival.

Now add in the Japanese 3rd party games throughout the year like Monster Hunter 4, Etrain Mystery Dungeon, Story of Seasons, Attack on Titan, Legend of Legacy, Senran Kagura, Hatsune Mika, SMT: Record Breaker, etc.

Now add in the kid/family/casual games like Lego Jurassic World, Lego Dimensions, Skylanders, Disney Infinity, Guitar Hero, Just Dance & licensed IP based on shows/movies.

Now add in the quality indie titles like Affordable Space Adventures, Mutant Mudds, Runbow, Dont Starve, Terraria, Minecraft, Fast Racing Neo, Year Walk, Steamworld Heist, Shantae, etc.

When combined the lineup for 3DS+Wii U is very solid in a given year but seperately they both suffer from droughts and miss out on many games. Basically 3DS would be more appealing if it had access to all the Wii U games and vice versa.

All I'm saying is that you guys aren't exactly looking at it like what it really would be. You wouldn't have 2 different games like Smash 3DS/U.  You're talking about 1 game being made for 1 platform, and most people would in that case just buy 1 platform and 1 game instead of 2 platforms and 2 games, and I have a hard time believing that this strategy would work out in the long run. It'd just mean a handheld that's well above 200$ and a console that's far weaker than the competition. All in all, it's a recipe for disaster.