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It could "flop" ... 2/3 of Nintendo's last consoles did basically flop. 3/4 of them dissapointed. 4/5 of their last consoles have had declining sales.

I do think NX will improve over the Wii U/3DS era in considerable ways, but that doesn't guarantee higher sales. The GameCube improved on the N64 in several ways and still managed to sell less.

I think one of the problems Nintendo has is even if NX as a hardware is a good sized improvement and even if it has a better library early on than the Wii U did ... Nintendo is still very much out of touch with what the core of the console business is *today*. They don't have any Western executive who understands the Western market which is 90+% of the business now. They don't have any IP that's specifically a bit hit with older gamers aside from their faithful portion of fans. They don't have a COD, Assassin's Creed, Uncharted, Halo type franchise though that appeals to modern gamers, virtually everyone in the console business does and those are the types of IP that drive the market today, look at the NPD top 10 software chart, look at any Euro chart.

That and the competition is simply too fierce now I think. Sony/MS have one end of the market served, Apple/Google are incredibly successful with the casual market. There is not much left in between, Sony is very good at getting "middle core gamers" and kids too, you don't sell 40 million units in under 2 1/2 years with just "hardcore gamers".

And yes the mid-generation release could be problematic for Nintendo. Is this thing even going to match the PS4.5? If not, it will be another Nintendo consoles that's pretty much outdated right at launch. Personally I'll be happy with Nintendo games in even PS4-tier graphics, but the general audience may not be impressed with that at all seeing as how they're already used to PS4-tier graphics for several years now.

- Release in march / miss holiday season

- No e3 presence

- Teased as something "completly new"

- Nintendos recent decissions (Star Fox dual screen force, Splatoon map rotation and no voice chat, Amiibos) Its not like Nintendo is evolving in anything i like, to be honest they are getting worse and worse imo.

- Release mid cycle (Ps4 will already have games like: Witcher 3, Final Fantasy 15, Metal Gear Solid 5, Batman Arkham Knight, Uncharted 4, Horizon Zero Dawn, Bloodborne, Dark Souls III, Battlefront, The Last Guardian, Dragen Age Inquisition, Destiny, The Division, Tons of fifa, cods, madden, assassin creed games, watchdog/watchdogs 2, Mirrors Edge Catalyst, Tomb Raider, Mass Effect Andromeda, GTA 5, Deus EX Mankind divided, No Mans Sky, Street Fighter 5, Tekken 7, Mortal Kombat X, Ratchet and Clank, Tons of great ps3 remasters.).

And what will the NX have in 2017? Zelda, Mario and metroid if we are really lucky. Sorry but thats not like a good competition.

I dont think it will be a tradional console. At best it will be something similar to the wii and adress Casuals. I doubt they will get good third party support (third partys hate "completly new" features they have to use, make porting more difficult).

The wii u was planned to get great third party support. That didnt happned, why?

Because of bad third party title sales and poor console sales on general.

With a march release nintendo will miss the holiday season which is extremly important for them (on of their biggest customer groups are children, they cant buy a console in march but get one for xmas).

These "bad" sales will overshadow at least the first half year of the NX => which makes it to a "wii u2". bad Third Party sales will stop third partys to develop/port games for NX, no third party support will stop people from buying the console.Doom loop.

Game droughts:

Even if Nintendo manages to get alot great games at launch and in first year, thats just possible because of the lacking wii u library.

In March 2017 Nintendo themself will released almost no big games for wii u for the past 2 years (only Mario Maker and Splatoon that are both more then 1,5 years away and MAYBE Paper Mario (dont know who is developing that).

All other games got made by external studios: Pokken (Bandai Namco); Zelda TPHD (Tantalus), Star Fox (Platinum Games)

If the NX is even more powerfull then the wii u, game development will even take more time and ressources. Games like Battlefront look extremly content lacking because so much ressources went into the graphics. Nintendo just have small teams, they cant make many of those games per year.

Nintendo also didnt hired many new developer for NX. The teams are still pretty much the same. Without third party support, NX will most likely get even less game then wii u.

Also:

Many Wii U Owners arnt satisfied. Well even many Wii Owners werent 100% satisfied with the console. Many old owner will most likely not buy a new nintendo system just again. Sony did it right with the ps3: Take a loss with the ps3 but satisfy the consumer. And now the ps4 is selling like hotcakes.

Thoughts?