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NX very likely to flop....here is why: (my opinion)

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NX very likely to flop....here is why: (my opinion)

NX or Wii U

NX 80 40.40%
 
Wii U 13 6.57%
 
Ps4. 105 53.03%
 
Total:198

Seriously, there's like three "The NX Is D00M3D!!!!111" threads on the main page right now.  What gives?  Just because they're not doing a full blown E3 presentation (even though it's not coming out until '17) and they're not launching it right in the middle of the crowded holiday season (which only started becoming a thing during the 6th gen with the Xbox and GC), that means that the NX is automatically doomed?

Wii U had its full unveiling @ E3 and launched in the middle of the holday season... how'd that turn out again?



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Anfebious said:
Turkish said:
Makes sense.

They skipped the holidays, confirms they're not confident enough in their product that it can compete with the onslaught of games and PS4 marketing in that all important period. Never has there a new home console launched in Q1.

PS2 came out in march... in Japan.

But hey I'm right, you are wrong.

PS: Be more specific.

PS2: This could be an omen.. NX coming out on the same quarter as the PS2... The true PS2 successor!

PS3: I hope not, I really want Nintendo to die for delaying Zelda!

Worldwide bruh, PS4 also came out in Q1 Japan.



Probably correct, Nintendo maybe missed the boat they should've used all the money from the Wii, and made the Wii U like the PS4, i think it's little too late for them as a hardware company and really believe they should go 3rd party as i would buy the next Zelda and Mario Kart and i think they would sell well on PS4 and Xbox One.



Well we have barely anything for Wii U from the beginning. So hopefully they have been preparing. Third party is always good but it will take a strong launch of Nintendo games along with a year one steady flow of them monthly to get sales and keep sales.

But this is all based on if they have been working on this. But from past experience II have no faith in that.

30 million would be the point I would call it not a failure.



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Turkish said:

Worldwide bruh, PS4 also came out in Q1 Japan.

But worldwide includes Japan...

You know what? Forget it.

Fuck Nintendo or something.



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It'll flop if it's expensive or lacks support, both are unlikely now with Nintendo having the chance to catch up to 8th gen (PS4 and XBO at least, their second sku might be over that, but at least with the Neo it's clear PS4 games will still be the standard), so Nintendo would have to really screw up this time over all over again.

So either the PS4 power is just too big to go against, like the PS2, that doesn't matter what others do, nothing changes, it just gets all the attention, than yeah, it might flop, if not, it might be successful, won't beat the PS4, but it might still be successful.



hoala said:

- Release in march / miss holiday season

- No e3 presence

- Teased as something "completly new"

- Nintendos recent decissions (Star Fox dual screen force, Splatoon map rotation and no voice chat, Amiibos) Its not like Nintendo is evolving in anything i like, to be honest they are getting worse and worse imo.

- Release mid cycle (Ps4 will already have games like: Witcher 3, Final Fantasy 15, Metal Gear Solid 5, Batman Arkham Knight, Uncharted 4, Horizon Zero Dawn, Bloodborne, Dark Souls III, Battlefront, The Last Guardian, Dragen Age Inquisition, Destiny, The Division, Tons of fifa, cods, madden, assassin creed games, watchdog/watchdogs 2, Mirrors Edge Catalyst, Tomb Raider, Mass Effect Andromeda, GTA 5, Deus EX Mankind divided, No Mans Sky, Street Fighter 5, Tekken 7, Mortal Kombat X, Ratchet and Clank, Tons of great ps3 remasters.).

And what will the NX have in 2017? Zelda, Mario and metroid if we are really lucky. Sorry but thats not like a good competition.

 

I dont think it will be a tradional console. At best it will be something similar to the wii and adress Casuals. I doubt they will get good third party support (third partys hate "completly new" features they have to use, make porting more difficult).

The wii u was planned to get great third party support. That didnt happned, why?

Because of bad third party title sales and poor console sales on general.

With a march release nintendo will miss the holiday season which is extremly important for them (on of their biggest customer groups are children, they cant buy a console in march but get one for xmas).

These "bad" sales will overshadow at least the first half year of the NX => which makes it to a "wii u2". bad Third Party sales will stop third partys to develop/port games for NX, no third party support will stop people from buying the console.Doom loop.

 

 

Game droughts:

Even if Nintendo manages to get alot great games at launch and in first year, thats just possible because of the lacking wii u library.

In March 2017 Nintendo themself will released almost no big games for wii u for the past 2 years (only Mario Maker and Splatoon that are both more then 1,5 years away and MAYBE Paper Mario (dont know who is developing that).

All other games got made by external studios: Pokken (Bandai Namco); Zelda TPHD (Tantalus), Star Fox (Platinum Games)

If the NX is even more powerfull then the wii u, game development will even take more time and ressources. Games like Battlefront look extremly content lacking because so much ressources went into the graphics. Nintendo just have small teams, they cant make many of those games per year.

Nintendo also didnt hired many new developer for NX. The teams are still pretty much the same. Without third party support, NX will most likely get even less game then wii u.

 

Also:

Many Wii U Owners arnt satisfied. Well even many Wii Owners werent 100% satisfied with the console. Many old owner will most likely not buy a new nintendo system just again. Sony did it right with the ps3: Take a loss with the ps3 but satisfy the consumer. And now the ps4 is selling like hotcakes.

Thoughts?

You assuming too many negative things, its you opinion but some thing doesnt make sense:

-Bringing Splatoon like example of bad decision doenst make any sense, beacuse Splatoon is actualy biggest win for Nintendo this gen, totaly new IP that sold 4.3m on instal base of 12.8m. Splatoon sold better than Halo 5, actually is best selling new IP of this gen and Splatoon is outpacing the first entries on some of the biggest franchises in Japan. Who then really cares about map rotation (actually suits game great) and no voice chatting, I say bring more staffs like Splatoon.

-Nintendo really can evolve with current hardware and services, they need new hardware and services in order to evolve, and NX will have new hardware and services.

-3D Mario, Zelda and Metroid are not good!? You are really not know what you are saying, also you assuming that NX will not have 3rd party at all, but reality is that even Wii U in its first year had solid 3rd party solid.

 

-New feature doesn't mean that for 3rd party will hard to develop, I doubt that Nintendo after Wii and Wii U will want to force 3rd party to use some gimmick. Also NX will probably have similar architecture and power to PS4, that means much easier ports for 3rd party than they done on Wii and Wii U.

-Wii U had 3rd party support but after terrible Wii U sales in first year all abandoned them.

-Its way to early to say that NX will have bad sales even with March launch.

 

-Do you know why last bigger Wii U game that is not port/remaster, spinoff or small project is announced at E3 2014!? Becuse they bacicly in 2014. chainged focus from Wii U to NX.

-Also their some unanuced Wii U project that are moved to NX, like Pikmin 4, Retro project, Next Level Game game...almost all biger Nintendo teams realsed their Wii U games long time ago, and most of them are on shedule to relase new games in NX 1st or 2nd year.

-Nintendo will definatly have some more 3rd party exclusives like Lego City Undercover, Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2, Fatal Frame 5 and co-devolped project like Hyurle Wariors and StarFox Zero. They will definitely have much more ports/remaster in order to fill schedule hols.

-Nintendo talked about unified platform, that basically means handheld and home console division will make game for same platform and not for separate platforms like before. Also they recently merged their home console and handheld divisions. That means faster otuput of games than before.

-They said they missing holiday season with NX to have proper lineup of games, I am sure NX will have great launch and 1st year lineup, Wii U had bad and weak launch and 1st year lineup and thats one of reasons why failed.

 

-PS3 had only one real problem that was fixible, high price, after Sony lowered price PS3 start selling. Wii U situation way more complicated, Wii U was bloody mess, Nintendo made to many mistakes that were not so easy fixable, after 1st year Wii U was dead. I dont think its problem at all that some minoroty of 13m Wii U owners will not buy NX becuse that si very small number.



hoala said:
snyps said:

PS3 never lacked third parties. Some games were delayed because the system was difficult to port and optimize. But the thirds were there the whole time. 

No mass effect on ps3, no witcher 2, no risen, no no no

That was published by Microsoft. Last I checked Microsoft weren't a 3rd party publisher...



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I believe that trust and brand image are probably going to be the largest issue, even assuming that Nintendo gets the specs right, manages to release the hardware without major technical problems, and has a strong launch lineup. Like the OP mentioned there are probably people out there that are unsatisfied with the Wii U and may not want to take another risk with this new system. Also another issue that was mentioned was that NX is essentially starting with zero and as was stated many gamers already have friends in other ecosystems and that may prove to be a problem for the NX.

With that being said though I do not believe the March release will have a negative impact. Nintendo has released many of their highest selling hardware products in March or other non-holiday months. There are several reasons why they would do that. For one thing they are not intending to get smashing sales in March but rather they probably want test their marketing strategy and make adjustments before the holiday months of 2017, when they expect the most sales. Looking at the 3DS launch, Nintendo cut the price of the system (which was one of the most problematic issues with the system's marketing at launch) and that helped the system take off during the holidays of 2011. Looking at a situation like Wii U when Nintendo launched in November 2012, Nintendo had to wait until the start of the next holiday season to cut the price (could have done it sooner but all momentum would have been lost again by the time the holidays started), at the same time they had to deal with the results of the previous failed holiday season including tremendous negative press. By launching in March Nintendo can do targeted releases, do research in order to come up with enticing bundles, and make necessary adjustments to the marketing.

As for them not showing the system at E3. I really do not know what to make of that. One reason why I can see them do that is because announcements do tend to get lost at E3 with so much going. Moreover, a lot of companies seem to be ditching E3 this year. Nevertheless, I do believe that Nintendo needs to show the NX and take the curtains off of the specs, features, key launch titles, and price fairly soon especially since the system will launching in March. Moreover, they need to quell all of these rumors, some of which may be building unrealistic expectations that may lead to disappointment. People need to know what to expect and Nintendo needs to read their reactions and make the necessary adjustments.

I am not going to say the system will flop or be a success. We do not even know what they system is at this point. However, I do agree that it will be an uphill battle for them. As a Wii U owner I personally never felt burned by the system, largely because I got the first-party support that I wanted and plus I do not really have a lot of time to dedicate to home console gaming. However, I can see that being a different story for a lot of other people (including people who never actually owned the system but watched how the system's life unfolded) so Nintendo really needs to convince these people. At this point, assuming that this system is a stationary home console (which Nintendo seemed disconfirm in a recent statement) and does not have a golden feature that instantly captures casuals or gamers (and lets be honest those are rare), I believe that the NX will be fighting to be the second choice for PS4, Xbox One, and PC gamers. However, if the system ends up being a hybrid or a portable then it has more of a breathing room. Either way the price, launch titles, the capability and durability, and public perception will play huge roles, which is why it is difficult to say how a system that we know nothing about will do.



BraLoD said:
It'll flop if it's expensive or lacks support, both are unlikely now with Nintendo having the chance to catch up to 8th gen (PS4 and XBO at least, their second sku might be over that, but at least with the Neo it's clear PS4 games will still be the standard), so Nintendo would have to really screw up this time over all over again.

So either the PS4 power is just too big to go against, like the PS2, that doesn't matter what others do, nothing changes, it just gets all the attention, than yeah, it might flop, if not, it might be successful, won't beat the PS4, but it might still be successful.

Do you really think power is the only thing keeping third parties away?