Some seemingly offhanded remarks recently, by Shu Yoshida, got people asking if there would be a PS5 at all, in the wake of a PS4 upgrade.

There won't be, and I'll explain why.

Apple... iStore. Google... Google Play.

Sony doesn't have this. They don't have their own ecosystem -- instead they push the reset button each and every time they release a new console architecture. The PS4 changes all that.

Take a good look at the PS4 design -- it's the first in Sony's long console history that effectively correlates with a standard PC-style architecture. This is intentional -- they want it to be upgradable, so they can create a software ecosystem, like Android and iOS have, which can allow for hardware upgrades to play, and purchase, older software, on a per-device basis. Your old PS4 run outta gas? No sweat, PS4k is here now! Buy one, you're happy because you can transfer all your games, and some of the newer games will offer improved performance, features, and resolution on titles you probably already own.

Sony's R&D costs? Chopped considerably. Each console is nothing more than an upgrade over the old. Nothing fancy or new every seven years. And guess what? You got a mobile device with 8 x64 cores (side note: they are NOT using x86 instructions on PS4 games! They need to address 8GB of RAM!), 6-8 GB of memory (less is needed with lower res textures), and a decent GPU (GPU power could be lower, you usually just need to tune display and texture resolution, unless the game is vertex bandwidth constrained or somesuch)? No sweat, download that digital game and go!

Sony wants to be your gaming SERVICE, not merely your potential console maker every seven years. They want you INVESTED in your Sony account. They NEVER want you to switch to XBox, Apple, Google, Steam, GOG, Origin, or any other system.

On top of that, there's an even bigger reason there will never be a PS5. If you're not into hardware tech, you may not realize that current semiconductor technology is reaching its limits, and there are no affordable (i.e. reasonable) solutions which even take us much past about 2020. Hardware fabrication will stop at about 7 nm transistor gate size, and 7 nm chips will be SUPER expensive (i.e. not console-worthy). We'll be lucky to see affordable 10 nm chips (the next fab scale past the current scale of 14 nm most high-end fabrication facilities operate at in 2016) by 2020 -- they already exist, but affordable? Nope. The machines that make them cost about $1 BILLION USD *each*! Make a factory with 8-12 of those? About half the chips they made are failures? Guess how much a company has to charge to make those chips not lose money, given that the current 14 nm upgrade cost about $500M per machine, and the fab companies need to recover that, too!

7 nm will simply be beyond the typical consumer until, probably, about 2025-2030. Now think about the console life cycle -- the first consoles are spendy (remember the PS4 started at 28nm), and then they lower their price by making the consoles cheaper to make. This has traditionally come from an increase in chip production efficiency, via increasing the number of chips that can fit on a wafer (which are produced by those expensive fab machines). Sony has very likely reduced the cost of the PS4 by making the processor 1/4th the scale it was in 2013 -- allowing 4 times as many to be produced in the same amount of time (remember the fab company charges more though, because the machines that make the 14 nm chips cost a lot more than the 28 nm machines did).

Sony is smart -- they realize that, if they make a new console, it has to be considerably more powerful than the PS4, AND it has to be no more expensive than the PS4 was in 2013. If they make the chip about twice as big (PS4k), and it costs twice as much per unit wafer area as 28 nm did, they can make a $400 console that is an upgrade from the PS4, and yet not lose tons of money in the process. If they make one four times as big, and charge $500-$600 for it, they will get tons of bad press, and lose marketshare (PS3 release). If they make an entire console that has that chip, 32 GB of memory, a 1 TB SSD, USB 3.1 ports, etc. etc. then they need to charge a good $1000, and they get laughed out of the market.

But wait! Can't they just do that in 4 years time, when the price of said console drops to $500-$600? Nope. Because to do that, it'd probably have to be at the 10 nm scale (SSDs and memory just won't drop all that much), and then the console is, basically, stuck at that price point for AT LEAST A DECADE, while 7 nm tech becomes affordable. Will that work? No way.

There will not be a PS5 in the foreseeable future. There will certainly be a PS4k. There will likely be a PS4k Turbo mk II, Actual 4K edition (lets face it, a doubled GPU won't do 4K for games. 1440p yeah, but not 4K), but there will probably not be a PS5, ever.

This is the "last console generation" -- that doesn't mean there won't be better consoles. Merely that they will largely resemble the current ones, unlike the past.

No! Having a completely new ecosystem every 6 years is the only TRUE way! Everything else is blasphemy.

Progressive thinking like Sony's is not welcome in this never changing world.

But dem trophies...

The comparison to mobile devices - or any products by google/apple/Samsung etc - is flawed. This is a false logic. The argument for a PS4K (or specifically for incremental changes over short periods) should not be that all the others have it so therefore consoles should have it as well, but instead it should be evaluated wether it is favorable for consumers or not if this was implemented, and as far as it seems as of now, I think this is a step in the completely wrong direction for console gaming, because there are no favors for consumers. In fact, I don't think anybody will buy it at all, except insiders like us. If you already own a PS4 you are supposed to pay AGAIN for a new one if you want the best gaming experience. If you don't have one yet, you are supposed to buy one for a higher price than a regular PS4, which can basically do all the same tricks, but with a few less pixels here and there. Woohoo.

All the talk about how smart Sony is to release it and how much money they can save with that still doesn't help you, the consumer, at all. Why should I want to give Sony extra money anyway by knowing how hard it is for them to make a buck? I don't care if they make money with their consoles or not. If they don't, it's their own fault! They're to blame themselves, not us.

I will never support such nonsense in any way. For the record, I haven't bought a N3DS either for the exact same reason.

He needs dat Ratchet & Clank you know.

Lets them sale a PS4 at 400$ while selling a PS4 at 200$

The richer markets and people will buy the more expensive one while the poor ones will buy the cheapest option.

Gives them ability to sale at 400 to those that can afforded it while pandering to the masses with the cheapest version, they win either way no matter what the consumer chooses.

I like the thought process, but that isn't at all what Sony is doing with PS4K. Sony's future is PS Now.

It's what Nintendo is doing with NX.

I agree with some stuff, but not with timing.

The way I see it. 

2015. Samsung and intel are at 14 nm process. Galaxy S6 and S7 are at 14 nm. TSMC at 16 nm. 

2016 -  early 2017. PS4K launches at 14 or 16 nm.  Graphic cards launch with 14 -16 nm process fabrication. 

2017 - TSMC and Globalfoundries start 7 nm Trials in 2017.

http://fudzilla.com/news/40499-tsmc-will-launch-7nm-production-trial-in-1h-2017

2018 - TSMC still working on 7 nm and probably skip 10 nm as they did skip 20 nm from 28nm to 16nm.

2019 - First Smartphones at 10 or 7 nm lauch taking all the fabs capacity.

2020 - 2021 7 nm ready for consoles and graphic cards, if 7 is not, 10 nm will be. PS5 launches 3 or 4 years after PS4 Neo at 400 USS supporting native 4K. (they already realized that any 800 USS really powerfull console that would last 8 years is a comercial faliure, better sell every 3 or 4 years at 400 price point). Games compatible with PS4 Neo and old PS4 starts to fade away after 6-7 years like every console cycle.  Maybe they keep selling light graphic games,  like indies for old PS4. 

In the mean time, they investigate new tech to get to 5 nm, use light instead of electrons, make 3D microprocesors,  replace silice or find some way to make things faster to keep the wheel rolling. After all, more than half gamers TVs in 2020 will be 4k and I guess they will need to sell 8K for the next 10 years. They will go for an 8K console by, let say2030.  

Full HD is 2 Megapixels on screen. 

4K is 8 megapixels. 

8K is 33 Megapixels. They need a really fast system to run 8K, and they will try to do it. If you dont think they will, well, I was not thinking in 3840 x 2160 resolution (Ultra HD) when I was playing Doom 2 at 320 x 240 pixels in 1994....and that was awesome compared to my Atari 2600 and TV (1980). 

you mean finally catching o to what PC gamers been doing for years.

I was a PC gamer since the beguinning. Now Im playing most of the time with PS4. I realiced that consoles has their advantages and PC has some too. Laying on the bed, the console is the way to go. Easier, faster and on the point.

But, Console always will be behind PC from now on. No console can compete  with a 30 pound 2000 USS high end PC. It requires far more power requirements than any console can have. And the graphic cards cost more than whichever console you can have. So its obvious that PC will run at faster fps or more resolution. Does that mean that is better in every category? easier, more portable or easier to program?. No.

Devs have to keep compatibility with tons of different hardware. On The PS4 they will have to work for 2 devices PS4 and PS4 Neo. Its like working with IOS for a couple of Iphones or working for many  Android devices. Consoles will still be consoles and PC will still be PCs.

PCs will have more graphical punch and fps, but also, you will have games like Batman Arkham Night (textures were awefull, game was retired from steam). Assessin Creed Unity (disastrous port, bad fps and glitches). F1 2015, multiplayer crashing. Quantum break (read PC metacritic). Dark Souls 3 crashes.  

I thought things were going to get better with consoles being x86. But its obvious that devs are lazy. Many of them don´t optimice enough for PC. I hate that , but its the way it is. PC gaming is great, and is a really big market, but most of it is MOBA games now. So I think a 6 or 7 console cycle with an upgrade in the middle or let say a new machine every 3 or 4 years keeping back compatibility is a great new start for consoles. It will keep consoles closer to PC at a very good price point.