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The NX: 8th Gen or 9th Gen?

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See thread title. Explanations for vote preferred.

Eighth Generation 69 27.17%
 
Ninth Generation 185 72.83%
 
Total:254
HylianYoshi said:
Aeolus451 said:
How is this even a question or a topic up for debate? It's a 9th generation console.

It's up for debate because if Nintendo were to release NX2 (or whatever) right around the time of the PS5 and XB2, would Nintendo just be a generation ahead of the competition?

That could happen, in the third generation Atari had both the Atari 7800 and Atari XEGS counting towards that generations.
And the Sega 32X Sega Saturn are both part of the Fifth generation.

The NX will be the first console in the 9th Generation, it doesn't have to be the only nintendo console.




Twitter @CyberMalistix

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NX 9th

PS4.5 8th

XB1.5 8th



Aielyn said:

By that reasoning, Dreamcast was a 5th gen system against the N64 and PS1, as for most of its life, it was up against those platforms.

I've explained the DC's situation before in other posts. To reiterate, first off, it launched closer to the PS2 than to the PS1 & N64. Also, it was discontinued prematurely. Had it lived a more normal lifespan, it would have spent the majority of its years competing directly with the other sixth-gen systems. Ergo, the Dreamcast is a sixth-gen system.

I really don't see why the length of the Wii/PS3/360 primacy should mean the 9th gen is going to be delayed further. On the other hand, the pattern of generations starting around the time that the generation two prior to it ended has endured through everything... so why should it change now?

Because the pattern was coincidental. In Japan, the only time the first system in a generation was released the same year as the last system from two gens prior was discontinued was in 2005, when the PS1 was discontinued globally in March and the 360 was annouced in May and released that November. In Japan, the NES & SNES weren't discontinued until 2003. Also, release dates are rarely global for systems, and since new systems used to come out earlier in Japan the generations started earlier there. If you want, I could make a Japanese counterpart to my previous timeline chart, and this time I'd go through the effort of trying to put the points at about the proper date instead of just on the line of the release year (my last chart was a quick & lazy one I churned out in a few minutes).

Incidentally, there's really no reason to think that the XBT and PS5 will be released as late as 2020, right now. It's based on the assumption that this generation will go somewhere near as long as the last one did, despite the last generation being a far stronger generation in terms of sales of all platforms. The general pattern is a 5 year gap between generations. This would see the next systems coming out in 2018, which is right about where we'd expect it to happen, if the only thing that happens with the rumoured "upgrades" is a resolution increase.

It's going to depend on the overall sales trajectory of the PS4 & XBO. Typically, a system isn't replaced until at least a couple of years after it peaks and sales have declined enough to warrant replacement. The PS4 & XBO may not peak until next year. This means we won't see them replaced in 2018 at that's too early. If 2018 as a whole is down enough YoY from 2017, we could see a 2019 release for their successors. If they decline a bit more slowly, we could see a 2020 release. Had the XBO & PS4 peaked last year or this year, then a 2018 release might have been more likely.

And if I'm right, and the NX (console) doesn't release until 2017, then there'll be a 1 year gap. But even if it's a 3 year gap, that really doesn't mean much on its own. The Wii U was in the same generation as the XBO and PS4. The NX is the successor of the Wii U. Therefore, the NX is 9th gen. If both Sony and MS wait until around the time that NX is being replaced by its successor to release their successors, then they will have kept the same systems for both the 8th and 9th generation of consoles. Because that's how generations work.

And once again, it's not as simple as "NES=3rd gen, ... Wii U = 8th gen, NX = 9th gen." There is at least one example of a company releasing two distinct platforms in a single generation. The NX's classification should depend on what it will be competing against mostly. If it spends its prime years competing with the PS4 & XBO, sharing most of the same games, etc., then it should be classified as 8th-gen.



Ucouldntbemorewrong said:

NX 9th

PS4.5 8th

XB1.5 8th

You are correct sir. This would be the way it goes into history.




Twitter @CyberMalistix

Aielyn said:

Incidentally, there's really no reason to think that the XBT and PS5 will be released as late as 2020, right now. It's based on the assumption that this generation will go somewhere near as long as the last one did, despite the last generation being a far stronger generation in terms of sales of all platforms. The general pattern is a 5 year gap between generations. This would see the next systems coming out in 2018, which is right about where we'd expect it to happen, if the only thing that happens with the rumoured "upgrades" is a resolution increase.A

7th gen was as long as it was cause we hit 28nm wall.

TSMC has announced 7nm for 2017...now, they are pretty much Peter Molyneux of semiconductor industry, but if some minor miracle happens and they (or GloFo) actually have it by late 2017/early 2018, then there is a theoretical chance for PS5/NextBox in 2018.

Personally, I highly doubt it, more like 2019 - especially if both MS and Sony decide to go with Navi architecture (slated for 2018) and keep the price in $400 range.



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spemanig said:

It's going to be generationless, like PC. It's not gen 8 or gen 9. It's just a platform that transcends the antiquated console generation model that is already dying out. There's no reason for it anymore.

Pretty much this.  Defining consoles by their 'generation' is probably going to die.  You'll have NX in Gen 9 all by itself for 3+ years? Are people going to lump PS4 Neo and whatever the hell MS releases in response into Gen 9?  When the successor to NX comes out will they put it in Gen 10 meanwhile SONY and MS finally are releasing their 'Gen 9' consoles?

Gens just don't fit anymore.



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of his first breath to the moment of his last.



Wii u was 8th gen, it failed so Nintendo had to Rush their 9th gen console. It's very simple the way I see it



Shadow1980 said:
Aielyn said:

Based on the way that the other gens were defined in that graph, 9th gen should start right where 7th gen ends. That is, when 7th gen is no longer supported significantly.

MS have just announced that they're ceasing production of the 360. It is likely that Sony will discontinue the PS3 soon. And the Wii of course has been discontinued for a little while now. So as I see it, NX is going to come just as the 7th gen is finished. Which makes it 9th gen, by that reasoning.

Last generation was a bit protracted, though, because of how late in their lives the 360 & PS3 peaked. There was an 8-year gap between when the 360 was released and when the PS4 & XBO were released. Also, that 2020 start date for the 9th generation could easily be 2019, though probably not 2018. It'll depend on when the PS4 & XBO peak in sales and how fast they decline post-peak.

Also, that alignment in those bars denoting the gens could easily just be a coincidence. It doesn't apply to Japan, for instance. Also, I just noticed that the PS2 was discontinued in the U.S. in early 2013, not late 2012 (that was Japan), so that's a slight error on my part.

Again, the NX's generational classification should depend on what systems it will mostly be competing with. If the rumors are true and it's releasing this year, then it will almost certainly spend its prime years competing with the PS4 & XBO and not the PS5 & Xbox 4. The NX could be 3 or even 4 years old by time the next PlayStation & Xbox come out, which makes it an ambiguous case that will hopefully be resolved come E3 this June.

Similar to Aielyn's example, SNES competed with PS1 at the end of its life. That didn't make the PS1 4th gen.

Great graph by the way.



Shadow1980 said:
Aielyn said:

By that reasoning, Dreamcast was a 5th gen system against the N64 and PS1, as for most of its life, it was up against those platforms.

1. I've explained the DC's situation before in other posts. To reiterate, first off, it launched closer to the PS2 than to the PS1 & N64. Also, it was discontinued prematurely. Had it lived a more normal lifespan, it would have spent the majority of its years competing directly with the other sixth-gen systems. Ergo, the Dreamcast is a sixth-gen system.

I really don't see why the length of the Wii/PS3/360 primacy should mean the 9th gen is going to be delayed further. On the other hand, the pattern of generations starting around the time that the generation two prior to it ended has endured through everything... so why should it change now?

2. Because the pattern was coincidental. In Japan, the only time the first system in a generation was released the same year as the last system from two gens prior was discontinued was in 2005, when the PS1 was discontinued globally in March and the 360 was annouced in May and released that November. In Japan, the NES & SNES weren't discontinued until 2003. Also, release dates are rarely global for systems, and since new systems used to come out earlier in Japan the generations started earlier there. If you want, I could make a Japanese counterpart to my previous timeline chart, and this time I'd go through the effort of trying to put the points at about the proper date instead of just on the line of the release year (my last chart was a quick & lazy one I churned out in a few minutes).

Incidentally, there's really no reason to think that the XBT and PS5 will be released as late as 2020, right now. It's based on the assumption that this generation will go somewhere near as long as the last one did, despite the last generation being a far stronger generation in terms of sales of all platforms. The general pattern is a 5 year gap between generations. This would see the next systems coming out in 2018, which is right about where we'd expect it to happen, if the only thing that happens with the rumoured "upgrades" is a resolution increase.

3. It's going to depend on the overall sales trajectory of the PS4 & XBO. Typically, a system isn't replaced until at least a couple of years after it peaks and sales have declined enough to warrant replacement. The PS4 & XBO may not peak until next year. This means we won't see them replaced in 2018 at that's too early. If 2018 as a whole is down enough YoY from 2017, we could see a 2019 release for their successors. If they decline a bit more slowly, we could see a 2020 release. Had the XBO & PS4 peaked last year or this year, then a 2018 release might have been more likely.

And if I'm right, and the NX (console) doesn't release until 2017, then there'll be a 1 year gap. But even if it's a 3 year gap, that really doesn't mean much on its own. The Wii U was in the same generation as the XBO and PS4. The NX is the successor of the Wii U. Therefore, the NX is 9th gen. If both Sony and MS wait until around the time that NX is being replaced by its successor to release their successors, then they will have kept the same systems for both the 8th and 9th generation of consoles. Because that's how generations work.

4. And once again, it's not as simple as "NES=3rd gen, ... Wii U = 8th gen, NX = 9th gen." There is at least one example of a company releasing two distinct platforms in a single generation. The NX's classification should depend on what it will be competing against mostly. If it spends its prime years competing with the PS4 & XBO, sharing most of the same games, etc., then it should be classified as 8th-gen.

1. That sounds like a completely arbitrary assertion. The Dreamcast spent the majority of its life competing against 5th gen systems. The fact that it was EXPECTED to last longer is irrelevant to that point. So if you define a system by which consoles it spent most of its time competing against, it's 5th gen. If you then invoke which systems it is meant to compete against, then the NX is releasing quite early, but is still 9th gen, because Nintendo isn't releasing it to compete against PS4 and XBO. It's releasing it as the next generation.

2. The pattern isn't coincidental. It just doesn't apply in all regions. With certain special exceptions such as Japan, system makers don't want to have three distinct generations of systems competing at the same time. So they discontinue the system two generations back, if it's still alive. If not for the newest generation, the longest-lasting of the systems from that generation two back would just keep selling as a budget system. And the fact that the exact discontinuation might not align perfectly within the year doesn't really matter - it's a ballpark indication, anyway. PS2 was discontinued in early 2013 instead of late 2012... which is still the same financial year, and might as well be the same year given that you're talking a matter of just a few months of overlap.

3. Systems get replaced when the maker decides that there is benefit to releasing a new system, and the system is ready. Usually, that means about 5 years after the previous generation, when power improvements are strong enough. As mentioned by HoloDust, there was a delay in improvements during the 7th generation. That meant that console makers weren't ready to move to the next generation, yet. And as a result, software support didn't decline due to teams being shifted to the new system, and sales didn't decrease. In short, you confuse cause and effect. Sales decrease because of the output decreasing, which is caused by the maker shifting resources. The new system isn't released because of the sales decrease, the sales decrease occurs due to the planned new system. Note, by the way, that Wii U sales have been pretty flat over time - there has been no "peak" for the Wii U. The Wii U sold roughly as well in 2015 as it did in 2014, and 2014 was a record year for Wii U sales. And sales of Wii U in the last three months has been roughly equal to that of the first three months of 2015.

4. You're not referring to Atari 5200, are you? Because the first two gens were prior to the generation cycle we now find ourselves in. If it weren't for the crash, it would be considered the start of the 3rd gen, alongside Colecovision. And yes, it actually works out to be exactly as simple as "3rd gen = NES, etc". Every single generation since the crash has seen this exact pattern. And the Atari 5200 would be Atari's 2nd generation of console - as I said, the only reason it's not considered 3rd gen is that the crash wiped out the entire generation, and we ignore it. Hence the 2 year gap between the 2nd and 3rd gens. If not for the crash, we'd be calling the current generation the 9th generation, and debating whether NX was 10th generation. And the 2nd generation would last until 1985, and the 3rd generation would last until 1989, and then the 4th generation would start in 1985 with the NES.



In all honesty it depends on what PS4 fans think. They decide the status quo as their console has the numbers as well as the fanbase.

They can decide that NX is

A. Part of this gen and replaces the WiiU, thus NX launches at the distinct disadvantage of being 3 years behind XBox One/PS4's 2013 release. If they spam the internet with this opinion, NX will be known as the console that "launched in last place" and will be another WiiU sales wise. Nintendo basically goes from a 13 million install base to 0 where as Xbox One and PS4 continue as usual.

B. NX is next gen. This means that this is PS5 competition, and Sony will have some ground to cover when it eventually launches.

I don't think PS fans will take kindly to this one, as A. seems more easy to accomplish.



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