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So uh, what does Microsoft do now?

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Mafioso said:

 

I'm expecting the new consoles to use 20nm, as 16nm is pipedream to cram the custom architecture they use. AMD/Nvidia will be at 16m this year on the GPU alone, and the consoles need 8core APU's with the custom memory configuration and gates that were architectured for them.

They consoles will absolutely be on 14 nm, so 4 times the density as 28 nm.  An APU with the same die area as XBONE1 would be able to put out the equivalent of > TF from today's GCN 1.1 consoles.



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edugamer said:
As I posted in the MS forum

MS has several intriguing options for revisions and new consoles right now.

There are 3 reasonable options for a slim.
1. Die shrink with no changes and price drop to $249
2. Die shrink, turn on additional 2 CU, upgrade to faster DDR4 memory, and up the upclock 2.1 Ghz
a. This should be more than sufficient to have a slight performance edge on PS4 and have support a consistent 1080P at $279
3. Update GPU to Polaris 11 (20 CU), keep esRAM, 2.1 GHz system clock, and switch to GDDR5x at 320 GB/s
a. This would be substantially better than the PS4, capable of 1080p60 and 1440p30, $299
All of the slims should have a flash-based, digital only version for $50 cheaper

For XB2 there are lots of options, some of which depend on which version of the slim they use.
If they select 1 above, then it may be prudent to offer a Polaris 10 this year. If they go with 2, then they could offer a Polaris 10 or wait. If they go with 3, then they should likely wait for Vega and HBM2.
1. Polaris 10 at $399 this fall
a. 36 CU, 8GB GDDR5x at 320 GB/s, possibly esram if needed, 12-16 2.1 GHz jaguar, System clock at 1050 / 2100
i. Performance equivalent to 3.7 TF (36 CU at 800) X 1050 mhz / 800 mhz X 1.4 increase in IPS = ~ 6.7 TF (4.9) equivalents of existing console performance
ii. Maybe something like 12 jags for games and 4 jags plus 4 GB lpDDR4 for system
iii. 4K capable
2. Polaris 10 at $499 this fall
a. Same as above but up memory to 12GB @ 480 GB/s, up CU to 54, zen cores, ~ 10 TF equivalent
b. Crush 4K at 60 FPS
3. Wait for Vega next fall at $499
a. 16 GB HBM2, 72 CU, Zen, 12 TF actual, 16 TF GCN 1.1 equivalents

I think they should wait for Vega next fall. But even 8 TF would be enough. Just make the hardware upgradable this time. 



Soundwave said:

 

They're already getting hammered by the regular PS4 and the PS4.5 is going to be more than 3x beyond a XBOne. 

Does MS wait for fall 2017 and launch XBox 2 full stop? 8 TFLOP Polaris + HBM2 RAM + upgradable architecture? 

If it is 2017, it will be more like Vega at 12+ TF, which will be equivalent to 15+ TF from today's consoles.

They could do a 8 TF equivalent this fall with GDDR5x at $499



edugamer said:
As I posted in the MS forum

<all wet dreams deleted>

Do you know that there actually LAWS that limit how much power consoles can draw?

None of your ideas has any chance of becoming truw within the next year or two.



Soundwave said:
edugamer said:
As I posted in the MS forum

MS has several intriguing options for revisions and new consoles right now.

There are 3 reasonable options for a slim.
1. Die shrink with no changes and price drop to $249
2. Die shrink, turn on additional 2 CU, upgrade to faster DDR4 memory, and up the upclock 2.1 Ghz
a. This should be more than sufficient to have a slight performance edge on PS4 and have support a consistent 1080P at $279
3. Update GPU to Polaris 11 (20 CU), keep esRAM, 2.1 GHz system clock, and switch to GDDR5x at 320 GB/s
a. This would be substantially better than the PS4, capable of 1080p60 and 1440p30, $299
All of the slims should have a flash-based, digital only version for $50 cheaper

For XB2 there are lots of options, some of which depend on which version of the slim they use.
If they select 1 above, then it may be prudent to offer a Polaris 10 this year. If they go with 2, then they could offer a Polaris 10 or wait. If they go with 3, then they should likely wait for Vega and HBM2.
1. Polaris 10 at $399 this fall
a. 36 CU, 8GB GDDR5x at 320 GB/s, possibly esram if needed, 12-16 2.1 GHz jaguar, System clock at 1050 / 2100
i. Performance equivalent to 3.7 TF (36 CU at 800) X 1050 mhz / 800 mhz X 1.4 increase in IPS = ~ 6.7 TF (4.9) equivalents of existing console performance
ii. Maybe something like 12 jags for games and 4 jags plus 4 GB lpDDR4 for system
iii. 4K capable
2. Polaris 10 at $499 this fall
a. Same as above but up memory to 12GB @ 480 GB/s, up CU to 54, zen cores, ~ 10 TF equivalent
b. Crush 4K at 60 FPS
3. Wait for Vega next fall at $499
a. 16 GB HBM2, 72 CU, Zen, 12 TF actual, 16 TF GCN 1.1 equivalents

I think they should wait for Vega next fall. But even 8 TF would be enough. Just make the hardware upgradable this time. 

I agree. I think that they should take option 3 slim @ $299 this year to position it right between PS4 and PS4K and able to equal PS4K at 1080p60.  That would give them a machine that is the same price as the base PS4 with roughly 2+X the real world performance.

 

Then fall 2017 introduce a Vega monster at $499 capable of 4K 60 FPS and put the slim to $249, $199 for digital only version.



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drkohler said:
edugamer said:
As I posted in the MS forum


Do you know that there actually LAWS that limit how much power consoles can draw?

None of your ideas has any chance of becoming truw within the next year or two.

that is not true.  the laws state that there must be a low power idle mode.  This is no limit WRT max power draw.

All of those machines except the Vega model would come in under 200W.  Based on published results the 54 CU model would likely be in the neighborhood of 180 watts for the entire system.

AMD is demonstrating massive improvements in perf / watt.



 

Soundwave said:

 

They're already getting hammered by the regular PS4 and the PS4.5 is going to be more than 3x beyond a XBOne. 

Does MS wait for fall 2017 and launch XBox 2 full stop? 8 TFLOP Polaris + HBM2 RAM + upgradable architecture? 

They could start by selling half shares of RARE to Nintendo and all RARE comes come out on both their platforms (driving RARE profits, and therefore Microsofts). It's pretty evident that the biggest RARE fans are Nintendo gamers (except for the Kinect stuff).

1 Banjo-Kazooie N64 1998 Platform Nintendo 1.87 1.13 0.55 0.10 3.65
2 Banjo-Tooie N64 2000 Platform Nintendo 0.82 0.36 0.25 0.06 1.49
3 Sonic & SEGA All-Stars Racing with Banjo-Kazooie X360 2010 Racing Sega 0.37 0.34 0.00 0.07 0.79
4 Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts X360 2008 Platform Microsoft Game Studios 0.32 0.36 0.00 0.09 0.77
5 Banjo-Kazooie: Grunty's Revenge GBA 2003 Platform THQ 0.24 0.09 0.00 0.01 0.33
6 Banjo-Pilot GBA 2005 Racing THQ 0.07 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.10
7 Code Geass: Hangyaku no Lelouch R2 - Banjou no Geass Gekijou DS 2008 Misc Namco Bandai Games 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.04
8 Banjo-Kazooie X360 2008 Platform Microsoft Game Studios 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01
9 Quiz Books Question Puzzles Games Free Banjo-Kazooie Video Games Edition iOS N/A Action N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 Banjo Piranha iOS N/A Action N/A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11 Banjo-Tooie X360 2009 Platform Microsoft Game Studios 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total3.702.320.840.337.19
1 Perfect Dark N64 2000 Action Nintendo 1.55 0.75 0.16 0.06 2.52
2 Perfect Dark Zero X360 2005 Shooter Microsoft Game Studios 0.66 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.77
1 GoldenEye 007 N64 1997 Shooter Nintendo 5.80 2.01 0.13 0.15 8.09
2 GoldenEye 007 (2010) Wii 2010 Action Activision 0.85 0.71 0.13 0.16 1.85
3 Goldeneye 007: Reloaded PS3 2011 Shooter Activision 0.32 0.34 0.00 0.13 0.79
4 Goldeneye 007: Reloaded X360 2011 Shooter Activision 0.25 0.20 0.00 0.05 0.51
1 Conker's Bad Fur Day N64 2001 Platform THQ 0.53 0.22 0.00 0.02 0.77
2 Conker: Live And Reloaded XB 2005 Adventure Microsoft Game Studios 0.49 0.20 0.00 0.02 0.71


Just like sony did the last gen,they're taking a beating.



RolStoppable said:
Sony trying to sell more pieces of hardware is actually beneficial for Microsoft. Not that I expect them to be able to take advantage of it, just saying that a PS4.5 isn't a reason to think that now Microsoft is even more done for.

This pretty much.



Dont see what MS can do really..... if the Neo is any indication it shows that Sony is not afraid to revise their hardware if they want. that aside, MS can't do anything significant till the next chip fabrication revision comes along. 10/7nm..... and by that time, everyone will pretty much know that the Sony will have something just around the corner too. All Sony has to do is announce that their nxt console will be fully BC with the PS4 and that's it.

then again, Sony can come out and annouce a $600 console and say TV, TV, TV......