SJReiter said:
Many people here are saying that there will be a new 3D Mario released at launch for NX. While I would love for this to be true, I am somewhat skeptical of this. Mainly because we haven't really heard much other than that report a couple years back that EAD was working on a new Mario game. I realize that Nintendo could ninja us again like they did with SM3DW and announce at E3/launch in November, but I'm just not sure that will happen this year. My guess is that NX launch will have: -Zelda Wii U port -Smash for Wii U port -Pikmin 4 -Some Ubisoft game (BG&E2?) -FFXV And that's it. Wouldn't shock me if they pushed the next 3D Mario to 2017.
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3D Mario game can be developed in 2.5-3 years, Mario 3D World was finished in 2013. and Nintendo already confirmed they working on new 3D Mario game long ago, so new 3D Mario will right on track to be released at end of 2016.
And about that Nintendo could Ninja us again, we still don't know anything for certain about NX itself not to mention NX games, all points NX is coming this year that means Nintendo will reveal some NX games at E3 that will come this year also.
Like @Einsam_Delphin wrote, Nintendo will definatly have some other new game/s exept very likeable Pikmin 4, new 3D Mario has very good chances.