Of course they need exclusives otherwise preferring one console to another becomes insignificant. For sure third parties push sales, but they don't weight anything in the scales when you choose which console to buy, even though casuals make decisions based on which of their friends bought which console, someone had to make that choice for them based on those exclusives.

Example:

Hardcore gamer "A" buys a PS4 because he wants to play Uncharted 4, but also likes Call of Duty, later his friend casual gamer "B" buys a PS4 to play Call of Duty with him, even though he doesn't care about exclusives, then B's other friends buy COD for PS4 to join them, and the cycle is born.

Now imagine this scenario multiplied by 10 million.

From the older thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7770388

I am surprised how many think that exclusives are that much of a factor to buy a console, really. Of course it is one part of the equation but look at which games sold the most last gen: it was multiplatform games.
If we take VGC's numbers and assume that exclusives are one of the main reasons, if not the main reason and that every exclusive game is a reason to buy a console and that there is no overlap, meaning that people don't buy multiple exclusives on one console and take playstation3:

HW total: 86.29

Best selling exclusives:

Gran Turismo 5 (the only exclusive being in the top 10) : 10.73
Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception : 6.79
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves : 6.68
The Last of Us : 5.88
LittleBigPlanet : 5.88
Uncharted: Drake's Fortune : 4.92
God of War III : 4.82
Resistance: Fall of Man : 4.33
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue : 4.20
MotorStorm : 3.87
Sports Champions : 3.84
Gran Turismo 6 : 3.47
LittleBigPlanet 2 : 3.39
Heavy Rain : 3.07
Killzone 2 : 3.01
inFAMOUS : 2.92
Killzone 3 : 2.76
God of War Collection : 2.60
Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction : 2.56
Resistance 2 : 2.47
==============================================================
Total : 88.19

So it takes 20 exclusives to overcome the total amount of consoles sold, with Resistance being at number 71 in the overall list. The tie ratio for PS3 is 11.02.
I think it is clear that people only use exclusives as an argument on enthusiast forums, the majority buys games, no matter if it is exclusive or not. There are way more reasons to go for a console than just exclusives, as indicated by several points in this post.

Lets say I bought a PS4 today for Uncharted 4.  Uncharted 4 isn't out so 0 sales for Uncharted 4 compared to 36m+ PS4s. However the PS4 is bought without a doubt for Uncharted 4...

The PS4 bought today came with CoD for free. No intention to play it whatsoever but that is one sale for CoD. 10m CoD sales or w/e and 36m+ PS4s. However clearly the PS4 was not bought for CoD.

Adjust numbers as necessary. Lots of people might buy the console for an exclusive but buy random 3rd party games too.... Attach rate doesn't tell the whole story.

So you don't think releasing exclusives simultaneously on PC and XB1 will make XB1 console sales dive?

Maybe you're right.

Personally, I do think a console needs exclusives in order to form an identity but you could argue that the Xbox brand already has a strong identity so maybe it doesn't need anymore experiences that can't be found nowhere else.

Only time will tell.

Bolded: I do. But maybe you're right that it's a small group.

If Dead Rising 3, Plants vs Zombies and Rise of the Tomb Raider didn't end up on my PC, I would be an XB1 owner at this time.

Exclusives are actually only real (except power too) thing that make difference between PS4 and X1, especially today when multiplatforms games are more important than ever. I dont see any need of two similar consoles on market without exclusives.

Consoles absolutely need exclusives.

Again:

"There are way more reasons to go for a console than just exclusives, as indicated by several points in this post."

Buying a console is never a single argument decision. How much exclusives and other points matter in the decision to buy a console differs from person to person, of course.

No, they are not. Price, controller preference, online infrastructure, "what your friends have", look and feel, backwards compatibility so that you can play old games you once bought for a new console, all these are also factors why people buy a console. That doesn't mean every aspect is important to everyone, mind.

Microsoft is not the pinnacle of exclusives and thats not the strength they brought into the industry. Microsoft further exposed what Sony brought to light while having good first party. Sony proved third party is more important than first party but that first party exclusive (and exclusives in general) support separates hardware manufacturers. Nintendo is the true king of exclusives and I'll tell you that no other company would've survived the industry as long as Nintendo has now without third party. People want to be where the most popular games are and based on output this can only be attained by following the development of third party.

All in all...

Every console needs exclusives, but Microsoft is just not good at building studios that can make great games. They are amazing at online OS and all they need is other people to make games that can run on those servers.