Normchacho said:
mornelithe said: Any nomination from Obama will likely be blocked by the GoP at this point in his lame duck presidency, additionally it creates another wrinkle as Justices Ginsberg and Kennedy are likely to retire during the next Presidency. Make no mistake, this makes the next presidency that much more important. |
You think they'd hold a Supreme Court nomination for a year? I would think that they'd get pounded by democrats and probably the media for holding it for that long.
The longest time between a nomination and a confirmation so far has been 125 days, they really think they can push more than 340?
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You don't think the party that held... what was it, something like 17 separate investigations into Benghazi?... would try that? You don't think the party that has attempted to undo Obamacare something like 40 times (failing every single time) would do it?
If anything is going to make them push to get it dealt with sooner, it'll be the fact that they've currently lost their conservative lean - it was 4 on the left, 4 on the right, and Kennedy, who was the "swing" vote, but tended to the right. Now without Scalia, Kennedy becomes the one who either supports the left-wing majority or ties things up.
The Republicans are going to want that position filled ASAP. And I can't help but wonder if they might push for a West Wing style deal (as in the episode, "The Supremes") - have Ginsburg retire now, have the Democrats nominate a staunch left-wing justice to replace her, and have the Republicans nominate a staunch right-wing justice to replace Scalia. And then confirm them both, thus ensuring that both sides get "what they want" rather than ending up with a situation where only milksop moderates are able to be successfully nominated and confirmed within a reasonable period.
The Republicans "need" to get the position filled - even if they were guaranteed a clean sweep of House, Senate, and White House at the next election, quite a bit of "damage" to their interests can be done in the next year. It's the Democrats that have reason to gamble on treading water until the next election - if polls are anything to go by, the Democrats are likely to hold onto the White House, and if they do so, the worst case is that nothing changes, and they can do a deal then. If they can grab hold of House and/or Senate, they'll be better-placed to shift the balance of the courts to the left. The odds are in the Democrats favour.
The sad part is, what I've just said, as reason why the Republicans shouldn't try to delay... won't be how the current Republicans are thinking. Rational thought isn't the current Republican Party's strong suit, they're going to try to delay, even though it's entirely against their interest to do so, harming them in the lead up to the election and likely ending with them losing the right-lean of the court next year. Because the reason not to delay is based on two-step reasoning, and they're not going to go past one-step reasoning - "if we win big in November, we get to nominate whoever we want".