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Forums - Politics Discussion - New Hampshire Primary is Today!

Lafiel said:
I think it will be more of a 8-12% difference between Sanders and Clinton, sure NH is very similar to/neighbor to Vermont, but in late Nov Clinton still was leading the polls there

and Rubio actually seems kind of shaky - he had a big win in Iowa almost tieing with Trump, but his last debate and rally were extremely weird with him repeating several sentences word for word

Rubio seems a little robotic, but I suspect that voters will prefer that to a candidate who keeps putting their foot in their mouth. Basically, I could see some Trump support flowing to Rubio. And recent polls in NH have Sanders leading Clinton by 14%, with overall momentum being in Sanders' favour.



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I don't see any reason that Sanders would underperform the polling in New Hampshire. Didn't he beat the polling expectations in Iowa? And now he's getting into his "home turf".



...

I almost just want to see trump win, just to see what happens xD anyone kinda curious too? i think hes not that good. Too racist or arrogant and too outspoken almost. but you sure can say it would be quite interesting, from an european point of view



Torillian said:
I don't see any reason that Sanders would underperform the polling in New Hampshire. Didn't he beat the polling expectations in Iowa? And now he's getting into his "home turf".

The funny thing is moderates don't like Sanders (kinda like trump). While Sanders can do well in the primaries -- Hillary would do much better in the general. 

That said... the republicans ONLY viable candidate is Rubio. The rest would be curb stomped in the generals.



Sanders and trump won...

Very disappointed in New Hampshire voters... How do you vote for somebody whose catch phrase is "you're fired"...



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sabvre42 said:
Torillian said:
I don't see any reason that Sanders would underperform the polling in New Hampshire. Didn't he beat the polling expectations in Iowa? And now he's getting into his "home turf".

The funny thing is moderates don't like Sanders (kinda like trump). While Sanders can do well in the primaries -- Hillary would do much better in the general. 

That said... the republicans ONLY viable candidate is Rubio. The rest would be curb stomped in the generals.

That's not really true, any of the republican governors that are still running would have a good shot in the general too... They are just even less likely to get through the primary than Rubio...



Aielyn said:
Geralt said:

Who do you think will win?

On the republican side I see Trump winning. Trump had a solid debate and states with a higher population, particularly states in the north east, love trump. North east states also value education and jobs so trump should have a nice lead.

Marco Rubio had a terrible debate performance, he kept repeating a 25 second-long politician speech. Rubio is a crook who never shows up to work, probably because he has a lot of business deals on the side.

Cruz has never done well in the polls in New Hampshire. Nobody likes Ted Cruz, he's a nasty guy. Cruz flip flops on all his decisions just to appeal to the conservative base. In reality, Cruz is bought by lobbyists and is all for big business.

Carson doesn't really have a shot at winning especially because Cruz lied to voters and said he dropped out when he didn't.

I like Chris Christie and Kasich but they don't have a good chance of winning.

 

On the democrate side I think Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton will be virtually tied again. I think the polls are overestimating Bernie Sanders and it will be close. We will see!

If the bellwether midnight caucus is any indication, it'll be Kasich and Sanders.

Don't discount either of them in New Hampshire - NH is one of the saner states, so they're not likely to get all hot-and-bothered over Trump or Cruz, and they have a stronger left-leaning part of the population, so Sanders is likely to perform well. Plus, Kasich has an extra bonus - independents can vote in the primary in NH, which is likely to benefit him, since most of the Republican field appeal primarily (if you'll pardon the pun) to the right wing of the party, and thus the independents, who tend to be a lot more moderate, won't be overly fond of those candidates.

My prediction is that Rubio will edge out Kasich, with Trump and Cruz roughly equal third. I also predict a 60/40 split in favour of Sanders.

not even close on that prediction on the republican side.  Trump is miles and miles away from third place.



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sabvre42 said:
The funny thing is moderates don't like Sanders (kinda like trump). While Sanders can do well in the primaries -- Hillary would do much better in the general. 

Polling numbers suggest otherwise. Sanders does better than Clinton when matched against Trump. Sanders is considered "acceptable" by 80% of NH voters in the Democratic primary (remember, that includes Independents that chose to vote on the Democratic side) compared with about 67% for Clinton.

The main thing that Sanders needs to counteract is the idea that he's unelectable. Quite a few people who end up voting for Clinton, according to Opinion polls, do so because they fear that Sanders wouldn't win a general election. It's kind of silly, considering that the only plausible republican candidate that polls as a serious threat if Sanders is the Dem candidate is Rubio (and even then, Sanders has consistently remained ahead on trends). Sanders does strongly against Cruz, Trump, and Bush. The only other two candidates that even warrant specific polling are Carson and Fiorina, and he mops the floor with both.

Hillary does similarly well overall, of course (with a few modifications - she has more trouble with Fiorina than Sanders does), but the point is, polling says Sanders can do fine in the general - especially when you factor in that Clinton currently has a lot more of the money... if Sanders wins the nomination, much of the money currently flowing to Clinton will instead flow to Sanders.



Aielyn said:
My prediction is that Rubio will edge out Kasich, with Trump and Cruz roughly equal third. I also predict a 60/40 split in favour of Sanders.

So, based on the current numbers, the split is 58/40 for the Democratic side, based solely on current votes. But if you suppose that, for all counties that have numbers available, the votes remain consistent with where they are now (that is, scaling them up to 100% counted, rather than just counting current votes), it comes out at 60.5/39.5.

Meanwhile, my prediction for the Republicans was significantly wrong. Ah well, you win some, you lose some.



not only that but trump stomped in every category, every income, every age, every level of education. Nearly every category on there. Trump won big with independents too.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X