Who do you think will win?

On the republican side I see Trump winning. Trump had a solid debate and states with a higher population, particularly states in the north east, love trump. North east states also value education and jobs so trump should have a nice lead.

Marco Rubio had a terrible debate performance, he kept repeating a 25 second-long politician speech. Rubio is a crook who never shows up to work, probably because he has a lot of business deals on the side.

Cruz has never done well in the polls in New Hampshire. Nobody likes Ted Cruz, he's a nasty guy. Cruz flip flops on all his decisions just to appeal to the conservative base. In reality, Cruz is bought by lobbyists and is all for big business.

Carson doesn't really have a shot at winning especially because Cruz lied to voters and said he dropped out when he didn't.

I like Chris Christie and Kasich but they don't have a good chance of winning.

On the democrate side I think Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton will be virtually tied again. I think the polls are overestimating Bernie Sanders and it will be close. We will see!

If the bellwether midnight caucus is any indication, it'll be Kasich and Sanders.

Don't discount either of them in New Hampshire - NH is one of the saner states, so they're not likely to get all hot-and-bothered over Trump or Cruz, and they have a stronger left-leaning part of the population, so Sanders is likely to perform well. Plus, Kasich has an extra bonus - independents can vote in the primary in NH, which is likely to benefit him, since most of the Republican field appeal primarily (if you'll pardon the pun) to the right wing of the party, and thus the independents, who tend to be a lot more moderate, won't be overly fond of those candidates.

My prediction is that Rubio will edge out Kasich, with Trump and Cruz roughly equal third. I also predict a 60/40 split in favour of Sanders.

We will see! Trump does well with independent voters too who are tired of both sides. Independents hate Sanders because he is way to the left. Hillary should benefit from independents because she is actually near the middle

Some how I get the feeling this thread was made to discuss more about Trump. I'll just boycott it from now.

I truly hope rubio wins.

My predictions

Democrats
Sanders - 55%
Clinton - 44%

Republicans
Trump - 28%
Kasich - 27%
Cruz - 26%
Rubio - 6%
Christie - 5%
Everyone else - 8% total

I have a feeling that Sanders is going to crush Clinton in NH.

On the Republican side...I'm not sure. I do think it will be close between Trump, Kasic, and Cruz though.

Trump supporters like to think that Trump does really well with independents, but opinion polls indicate otherwise

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188177/trump-image-among-democrats-independents-negative-gop-candidate.aspx

And position on the spectrum isn't what decides Hillary's support - otherwise, Iowa would have favoured her much more strongly. New Hampshire opinion polling has Sanders ahead 54% to 40%. And let's be honest - it's unlikely that the remaining 6% are going to go to Hillary, because she's too well-established; if they were going to support her, they'd already be doing so. And keep in mind, many independents aren't centrist, they just don't align well with the two parties. One thing to note is that, in terms of alignment on the left/right spectrum, both parties have drifted to the right over the last 20 or so years. That means that more independents lie to the left, and fewer to the right.

Of course, that link suggests Trump will also have the strongest support; the difference is, where it's a two horse race on the Democratic side, it's an 8-sided brawl on the Republican side. Trump is likely to do better in opinion polls than in actual primaries, especially in New Hampshire, where voters tend to make a final decision relatively late. And because of how they run their primaries, it's even more true than that.

Sanders supporters, even amongst independents, tend to be pretty specifically in favour of him - that is, they're supporting him because he's him, because of his politics. Trump's supporters amongst independents are mostly supporting him because he's an "outside" candidate, because he speaks "like them", etc. What does this mean? It means that, when independents choose whether to vote on the democratic or republican side (as they get to choose which primary they vote in), Sanders' supporters will vote on the Democratic side because they're specifically in favour of him. Meanwhile, Trump supporters will see Trump as a shoe-in to win anyway, and will want to weaken Hillary Clinton by voting for Sanders on the Democratic side, as Sanders is far less "establishment" than Clinton.

Early numbers from the towns that have already completed their primary voting have Cruz, Kasich, and Trump all equal, and Sanders with a strong lead ahead of Clinton. It's a tiny sample, and not at all unbiased, but it kind of demonstrates my point, nonetheless.

I think it will be more of a 8-12% difference between Sanders and Clinton, sure NH is very similar to/neighbor to Vermont, but in late Nov Clinton still was leading the polls there

and Rubio actually seems kind of shaky - he had a big win in Iowa almost tieing with Trump, but his last debate and rally were extremely weird with him repeating several sentences word for word

This is absolutely terrible political analysis... This almost sounds like regurgitated Trump talking points. /vomit.