Assuming it's a console that is somewhat better than the PS4/XB1 in some areas, but still in the same ball park ... 

Even if it launches this November, that means the PS4 will have a headstart close to 45+ million and XB1 will be around 25-30 million. 

Worse if it launches in 2017, the gap probably grows to 60+ million for the PS4 and XBox One 30-35+ million. 

Wouldn't it pretty much just be destined to be a third place console? Never in the history of game sales has a platform come from 30+ million down to catch up. 

It would also be at a huge disadvantage in terms of game library (both systems will have thousands of games by then) and because the PS4/XB1 have the install base they have more users in their online infastructure so this creates a snowball effect for them (ie: I want to buy a next-gen console, 2-3 of my friends already have a PS4 ... I'm more likely to choose a PS4 so I can play with them). And PS4/XB1 will likely be at least $50-$100 cheaper than they are now. 

No, it will not outsell the PS4. But I think it doesn't need to. Considering their audience and all of their plans, an userbase around 60m would be enough for the NX to turn a big profit. The fantastic attach rates of Nintendo games, their mobile plans, amiibo sales... those could keep profits high and costs relatively low, and for a company like Nintendo, that would be the perfect situation.

It was going to be third place even if it released alongside the PS4/X1. There is no reason to think otherwise.

Probably not. Which is why I think it's going to be something completely differen from PS4/One.
Of course I could be mistaken, but I really think that people expecting NX to be a powerful nintendostation with third party support are way off.

I've seen this sentiment alot. And really all it does is paint a picture of Nintendo just being doomed to play third place for all eternity. Apparently there's no such thing as success with NX since "PS4 and X1 will be so far ahead". It's just a vicious cycle anyway you look at it.

But to answer your question: no probably not. But what I honestly want to see from NX is Nintendo trying to establish themselves more as a competitor in the console race and to plant a solid foundation going forward. And really all we can ask for is this and that they are able to make profit off of the thing.

It's hard to definitively say until we know exactly what NX is, but consoles that launch mid cycles typically under perform. It's highly doubtful it will ever pass Xbox One or PS4.

100% not, infact I think it will sell at the same rate as the WiiU

Probably not, I mean it 100% wont catch PS4 no matter what, but it doesn't have to, only needs to make Nintendo money.

Of course not. Which is why it will have a gimmick and be more focused on recapturing the Wii audience than wooing the PS4 audience.

This is why NX needs to launch with specs that cross completely into 9th gen territory. Nintendo can't expect to launch a console halfway through a generation and be successful within that generation. They need to target PS5/XB2 with this one or they're really screwed.