Really curious to see what other people think about this. What are the chances that Sony will release  PS4 slim this year? Maybe at 299$.

Not now. The momentum the PS4 has this year is enough to keep it going big time. Next year we might see it, both to push their sales and to counter whatever the NX turns out to be.

Slim isn't only for pushing sales, it's also for reducing manufacturing costs. I don't especially disagree with your points but I thought you left out one important argument.

Care to explain why?

Yes Sony will want to reduce production cost and moving the APU to 16 or 14nm from the current 28nm plus the earlier reduction from 16 to 8 RAM chips will allow a smaller power supply so allowing Sony to make more money per console sold even if the console doesn't get a price drop.

PS3 had a slim version after 3years.
14-16nm production is ramping up.

Yes its likely there could be a slim version of the PS4 in 2016.
Which would likely also mean a price cut.

i think we will. along with a 299$ price tag. it will probably be announced end around octobor.

True, kinda forgot about that one. :P

I suppose Sony will release it at the best moment. The regular PS4 can beat in sales the regular XBone easily, so they might wait to use it against a slim XBone or the NX, more than to save costs. It's a powerful tool to alter the sales of their competition.

maybe. ps4 is already quite slim so i'm not sure if they can really make a substantially smaller model this year.

i do expect another $50 cut in price this holiday.

I think it's possible, I'm leaning on 'no'. I feel it's still kinda early to be releasing a slim version.