So i noticed most people acting like Zelda Wii U will be 100% on NX.

We dont know what NX it, how powerfull it will be, how expensive it will be, when it will be launched.

All that is UNKNOWN.

I made some Calculation and the chances Zelda Wii U will appear on NX as a cross release are right now 12,5 %. You can change some parameters, but you probl. wont get anything different then 10-20%.

Lets calculate the probability:

1. NX needs to be release in 2016. Nintendo never did this (annoucnement and release same year). Nothing hints a 2016 release. I give this a 50% chance to be true; 50% 2017 or later. 

2. NX needs to be a home console or a combination of both. 3DS is older then wii u. It will get a successor first. So only chance is, NX will be the fusion concept. That could be right, also couldnt be right. We dont know. Nintendo said, NX wont replace Wii U and 3ds, but they also said the same about DS wont replace GBA. I think its a 50% chance that NX will be a replacement for wii u and 3ds (and will be powerfull enough to run zelda wii u).

3. Nintendo needs to want to release Zelda Wii U on NX. Even if both points above turn out to be true, Nintendo also needs to want a cross release. It was always a unwritten rule, that every home console system from Nintendo will get its own Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart and Smash game, The 4 big home console franchises from Nintendo. This wont be the case for wii u. Considering Wii U´s low sales and all the Zelda remastered and spin offs it got (Windwaker, Hyrule Warriors, Twilight princess) it may be likely they want to compensate this.

There is one point however which stand against this. All 3 mentioned zelda games (HW, WW, TP) were released, or at least in development before Zelda Wii U got delayed. So assuming Nintendo brought this 3 games to compensate the lack of an exclusive wii u title doesnt make sense. Windwaker was released 2013, HW 2014 and Tantalus already spoke about their Wii U Remaster in Dec. 2014. In Dec. 2014 Nintendo told us Zelda will arrive 2015. So all 3 games arnt made to compensate Zelda Wii U´s cross release. 

To Twilight Princess Similarities:

- Wii and Gamecube used almost the same hardware. Porting wasnt even needed, the wii was just a little better version of the gamecube.

- Gamecube had windwaker

- The game fittet perfectly to show what is possible on wii (wiimote gives your the "sword right in your hand"). Its doubtfull this will be the same case for NX, especially considering Zelda Wii U is in development with Wii U´s possibilities (gamepad) as the main thought. They even made Windwaker HD to try it out.

- Gamecube was released same year as TP. The NX isnt even official announced yet.

Sum Up:

Pro Nintendo want cross release:

- Poor Wii U Sales

- Their biggest project yet on their unsuccessfullst system

- Give NX a boost

Contra Nintendo want cross release:

- Break the unwritten one exclusive zelda game per console rule (Nintendo teases zelda wii u till the reveal of the console)

- Make Wii U owners sad who got the system just for the promised Zelda game (probl wont buy NX because Zelda NX might be on NX sucessor too)

- Alot ressources would be necessary for the port (NX probl. different hardware-architecture then Wii U). 

Considering all above, ill give it a 50% chance Nintendo wants Zelda Wii U on NX at launch.

So do the math. We got 0,5 (2016 release) x 0,5 (Wii U replacement) x 0,5 (Nintendo want Zelda X) = 0,125. So all in all there is a 12,5 % chance Zelda Wii U will be on NX. Thats not likely or anything.

Note: This thread is bookmarked and will get revived later (like Splatoons sales thread).

About 90% chance it's not Wii U exclusive, I reckon.

It's probably one of their most expensive productions ever, they'll want to release it to as large an audience as possible to make their money back.

I made some calculation to get to mine 12,5%.

Can you please give your calculation?

Here are again the needed parameters:

- NX Release Date

- What is NX?

- Do Nintendo want Zelda NX?

It seems like your 90% just answerd the last paramter ("Do Nintendo want Zelda NX?"). What about both others?

100% sure we will play zelda wii u on the samsung Electric Boogalo 2.0

...


100% sure its coming to the nx... too.

So you are 100% NX will be released 2016, it will be a wii u replacement and nintendo wants Zelda Wii U on NX right?

Whether NX releases in 2016 or 2017 doesn't change things in my view, it'll still be released on NX, either Twilight Princess style, or The Last of Us Remastered style.

As to what NX is, all it has to be is a gaming system as strong or stronger than Wii U to make a port possible.

I love the heart put into your OP but your Probability and Statistics is not scientifically accurate. Thanks for the read though. I'll try to freshen up on the subject cause right now I don't remember how to calculate those percentages.

yeah, zelda is the nail in the coffin for the wii u and a new start for nx, the situation is too familiar (twilight princess)

how is it not accurate? Sure the % for the parameters are my guesses (there are no "real numbers to use"), but i guess everything I used is at least realistic.

If one of the 3 paramters wont be true, a crossrelease wont happen. Thats fact.

Just wanted to show people how unlikely a cross release it (doesnt matter if you go for 12,5% or 20%). But the poll seems most dont understand it or dont read OP.

With 3 unknown paramters is nothing but ridiculous to think a cross release is likely.

I'm thinking there is a pretty high chance that Zelda U will also be released on the NX. Reasons?

1- Low Wii U sales
2- They are already talking about the NX (since 10 months ago)
3- Would make business sense considering it's a higher budget game
4- They did it before with Twilight Princess (Got delayed & released on another system)