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Locked: the Wii U is not getting replaced this year, guys

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - the Wii U is not getting replaced this year, guys

Soundwave said:
bigtakilla said:
Soundwave said:

 

Kind of like how they should have supported the GBA for a full 5 years because there was a shit load more money to be made from the GBA than the Wii U could ever dream of. 

Yet they replaced it (effectively) with the DS. 

Was that the wrong decision? 

For me personally as a gamer honestly I don't give a fuck. I have to buy an NX at some point, doesn't matter if it launches tomorrow or in 2020, I like playing Nintendo games, so for me it doesn't matter if I upgrade this year or three years from now. There's no difference. There's $300-ish in my bank account with NX's name from the moment it was a twinkle in Mr. Iwata's eye. 

There is no "oooh, maybe I'll buy it, maybe I won't" dillemma for me, so that frees me up to look at it from a cold, purely market driven side.

If you asked most Nintendo fans in 2003 should they replace the GBA soon, I gauruntee you most would have voted "no". 

But that rationale is not based on any market logic, it's just personal preference. 

But the DS was a gamechanger that was fully realized and had a lot of great games at launch in a time where it didn't take years and millions of dollars to make games. Now more than ever the reveal to release has to be perfect. 



If they've been cutting Wii U projects short to transfer them to the NX, they launch window is something I'm not that worried about. 

Zelda could be in the launch window and EAD Tokyo's next 3D Mario is due around that time too. Animal Crossing would be due in the post launch period. 

Also remember Nintendo would only have to support one platform in a unified structure. That means game development wouldn't be split between two systems, which is a core problem for Nintendo. 

If it's a powerful portable it likely will see a shit-ton of third party support early too (especially Japanese devs) so Nintendo doesn't have to work so damn hard either. You're not supposed to have to sell a game platform all on your own, it's not supposed to be like that. For third parties it's better to be out sooner so you can start building that all important user base, the sooner you get past that 10 million barrier the better. 

And actually the DS launch was kind of ... shit. It picked up in 2005 and found its legs with Brain Training in Japan but really took until 2006 in North America and Europe with the release of the DS Lite to really put up big sales. Before that the PSP would outsell it fairly regularily in the West. But had they waited it would have been disastrous because it would have given the PSP too much traction in the market, so Nintendo was 100% right to launch the DS in 2004. 

The other thing that really killed the Wii U and 3DS launches is Nintendo banked hard on casuals being there. NSMBU *should* have been a killer app, the previous one sold a bloody 30 million copies or something. Nintendo Land should have been a huge hit with the Wii Sports/Mario Party crowd. Nintendogs + cats *should* have been a killer app for the 3DS launch, the previous one sold 30 million copies too or whatever. Nintendo got stood up by that casual audience, they won't make that same mistake with the NX launch window, I'd expect Zelda with Mario not too far after that and Splatoon 2 early in the cycle for good measure. 

 

Metroid Prime Hunters: First Hunt demo, Animal Crossing, Mario 64 port, and Mario Kart were all "launch titles" (within first year). Not really all that terrible.



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b00moscone said:
zorg1000 said:

 

U sure about that?

EAD Group 1 released Mario Kart 8 in May 2014 and worked on DLC for about a year.

EAD Group 2 released Splatoon & Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer in mid-2015.

EAD Group 4 released Super Mario Maker in September 2015, Pikmin 4 in development but without a specified platform.

EAD Tokyo released Super Mario 3D World in November 2013 followed by Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker in November 2014.

Retro Studios released Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze in February 2014.

Hal Laboratories released Kirby: Triple Deluxe in January 2014 followed by Kirby: Rainbow Curse in February 2015.

Intelligent Systems released Fire Emblem: Fates in June 2015.

ND Cube released Mario Party 10 & Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival in 2015.

Monolith Soft released Xenoblade Chronicles X in April 2015.

Do u think these teams that finished projects in 2014/2015 are working on new 3DS/Wii U projects or have moved on to NX?

Let's look at the Nintendo IP releasing this year, Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam (outsourced, 2015 localization), Fire Emblem: Fates (2015 localization), Twilight Princess HD (outsourced, HD port), Hyrule Warriors Legends (outsourced port), Pokken Tournament (outsourced, 2015 localization), Star Fox Zero (co-developed, delayed 2015 title), SMT x Fire Emblem (outsourced, 2015 localization), Metroid Prime: Federation Force (outsourced), Legend of Zelda U (delayed 2015 title).

With the exception of EAD Group 5 co-developing Star Fox & EAD Group 3 working on Legend of Zelda (could be cross-gen) there are no known internal studios or subsidiaries working on 3DS or Wii U titles. Nintendo is most likely working full force on NX titles.

EAD Group 1: Sure, but they are usually responsible some of the bigger games, and if they're working on a launch title i'd imagine it'd be fairly big, so i doubt it would only have a 1-1.5 year dev cycle.

EAD Group 2: Pretty much EAD Group 1.

EAD Group 4: As i said, Pikmin 4 may possibly be an NX title, but it can very much be a Wii U title as well.

EAD Tokyo: Perhaps, but depends on when they have been given a dev kit, if they've been given one at all.

Retro: Their last game released early 2014, about 2.5 years before when people think the NX will release. I doubt they were given dev kits back then, so they must be working on something else.

HAL: They could release a game for 2016, in the caliber of Rainbow Curse.

Intelligent: I imagine they've just finished the translation not too long ago, and even if they outsourced that to another developer, still not enough time.

ND Cube: They could pump a game in-time for late 2016.

Monolith: They tend to have gaping development times, so they're not really a good source for when the NX is releasing :P

For your question: "Do u think these teams that finished projects in 2014/2015 are working on new 3DS/Wii U projects or have moved on to NX?" Sure they can be working on 3DS/Wii U titles, you're just simply riding on the assumption that the NX is releasing in 2016. For all we could know, we could just get a speckle of details this year on the NX and it could release in a few years.

As I said, we won't know anything until we get details, so we should just wait. But as for what the studios are up to, you're pretty much right in saying a lot of them are working on unannounced games, which could of course be NX titles.



EAD Group 1: but you have to take into consideration that Mario Kart games NEVER Launch with the console, and, since they need a 3 year development for a MK game they could release it by the end of the 1st year of NX/during the 2nd year .

EAD Group 2: both Splatoon and AC:Amiibo festival didn't need many developers and development for both (counting a few months after release for the additional weapons in Splatoon + additional bug fixes)  ended probably in July/August 2015 leaving pleanty of timeto make other games/working on the new console interface;

EAD Group 4: Again, team that is confirmed to be split due to Pikmin+SMM, I think the development of the latter might be one of those who took the lesser ammount of developers in Nintendo's recent history, Pikmin HAS TO BE an NX title, if it is a Wii U title it'd be in Nintendo's interest to keep it a secret so that they can surprise us at E3, instead Miyamoto threw it out there as if it was nothing;

EAD Tokyo: since Captain Toad used the same engine as SM3DW it's likely too that most devs started working on the next Mario game right back in 2013...

Retro: There's something called moving projects to other platform, it's what happened with Star Fox Zero that was originally a tech demo for the Wii, also I wouldn't be so shure about the dev kits assignements inside Nintendo...

HAL: Imho they have had somethinkg big under the curtains since they've been releasing simil-minigames lately

Intelligent: Translations are made b other companies, development ended in March 2015 or a few months after that considering DLC, still they might be able to publish something by the end of 2016/early 2017

ND Cube: as you said, they could release something by the end of the year EASILY

Monolith: Their development cycle doesn't count since they release games after 4/5 years :v


 





What indicates to me that NX arrives this year.

- New unified account system which falls in line with speculation NX is a unified platform.

- The fact NX will be unveiled this year, I don't see Nintendo trying to keep everything about NX secret only to unveil it then wait a year and a half to release it allowing their competitors to prepare for it. As someone mentioned earlier the days when something was reveal then released over a year later are gone.

- 2017 will be a harder year to launch in then 2016 as the other platforms enter their stride.

- Wii U as it stands has no 2017 projects and this year's releases are projects that were delayed or announced in 2014 indicating resources were diverted to NX.

- Zelda U's delay draws similarities to TP's.

- NX is part of Nintendo's new approach, the new approach consists of extended businesses in licensing characters for movies, animations, theme parks as well as entering the mobile market and the possibility of starting a chain of stores like Nintendo World. The will even be a reward program that spans across everything for consumers, all of this comes into play this year so why would the NX which is part of the approach launch next year.



Soundwave said:
Thunderbird77 said:
Soundwave said:

For the period the PSOne was actually available it outsold the Game Boy, fairly easily. Gotta give Sony credit, their console formula is simply very mainstream. 

monopolizing games isn't exactly a formula.



Last I checked, the NES was the only console with a lock out chip that basically forced developers to make games for it. 

Sony doesn't force developers to make games for them, they're simply (far) better at selling consoles than Nintendo or Microsoft are. Probably because they have a better understanding of what the console market is (like them or not). 

I'm not talking about forcing. Sony isn't better at selling hardware, it's the 3rd party games (with most of the generations the games being only on ps) that sell hardware. Try imagining how different things would have been if the ps, ps2, ps3 and ps4 exclusive 3rd games were multiplat/ full multiplat.





We'll talk about it at the NX launch, later this year



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Soundwave said:

If NX is just a "standard" console then I don't see much chance of success for it unless it has some magic wonder controller that changes the industry again.

The benefit of a unified platform isn't just shared games ... it's shared userbase, which matters hugely to developers. If it's a segregated userbase again, that all goes to shit.

When the 3DS sells 50-70 million units it means dick all for the Wii U right? It actually probably hurts the Wii U because developers if they are going to bother with anything Nintendo related will just throw out some low budget 3DS game and call it a day. Why bother with the 15 million selling console when Nintendo has this other 50+ million selling system. 

With a unified structure, the console could have "piggybacked" off the relative success of the portable models to have a large enough userbase (even if Nintendo portables aren't selling like they used to, they're still miles beyond their console division). 

If NX is a separate stand-alone console, then without question it can't even be a priority for Nintendo right now. The 3DS successor (whatever that is) has to be a far larger priority right now above NX, Wii U, and even mobile games, because the 3DS is running on fumes right now and it's exhausted Nintendo's franchise catalog. It will be 5 1/2 years old by this fall and will badly be in need of replacing (yes DS got 6 years, but it was well warranted with 150 million hardware sales, 3DS probably isn't even going to get to half that).

How about games? all nintendo consoles except MAYBE the wii were standard and the most successfull ones had the most great games.





PerturbedKitty said:
Soundwave said:

 

I dunno, the lineups for both are pretty poor if you ask me. If Yokai Watch had taken off like Pokemon in the US/Europe ... yeah ok, maybe I could see it, but as is ... no way. 

Supporting the Wii U and 3DS isn't without pitfalls for Nintendo either. The more you support brands that are percieved to be flops or fading stars ... the more your own brand itself becomes infused with that same stink. 

I mentioned this in another thread, but Nintendo has to be wary of that too. The average consumer (not people on this board, just average consumers) ... the more they look at Nintendo and see the Wii U and 3DS ... the worse that is honestly in the long haul. 

Blackberry stuck to their guns and fought the good fight with the Blackberry OS and keyboard-centric phones ... they should be rewarded right? Wrong. They really they're known as a "loser brand" by most average consumers today. There's no medal or cookie in the free market for "trying hard". This isn't 8th grade basketball where everyone gets a ribbon for trying hard. Blackberry could tomorrow make the best smartphone ever with Android app support so it has all the apps and it probably would still flop, because once your brand becomes associated with loser products, eventually people will start to see your company as an undesirable/loser brand in general. 

The longer this generation goes, honestly the worse it is for Nintendo. 

you act like it is complete doom and gloom for nintendo. nintendo is in no way comparable to the stupid ass blackberry people. the difference is that nintendo is ALWAYS going to be around. nintendo is ALWAYS going to make a profit off of every generation. and Nintendo is ALWAYS going to be responsible for the greatest games to come out every generation. just stop with "nintendo needs to do this or else .... and they will forever be irrelevant to the industry"

well they seem to be doing pretty alright for being as irrelevant as they are dont you think? sony couldnt survive as a company selling 12 mil consoles in 3 years, and microsoft would just axe the xbox brand altogether if it were them. and what does nintendo do? theyre profiting off of it. nobody will ever be as good at making money off of video games decade after decade after decade. its just not going to happen. hell, look at some of their software sales. there arent many games on the ps4, for example, that sold as much as mario kart 8, smash bros, splatoon, and mario 3d world.

so just stop. nintendo will be just fine. as always.

THIS infinitum.





Well since they plan to reveal it in June, wii-u sales are going to dramatically drop, heck might even see a price drop in the wii-u at e3 or sooner.



bigtakilla said:
Soundwave said:

 

Eh, I don't think the 3DS has another year left in its gas tank. Nintendo can't really do much more without it, they've revisioned it up the ying yang and released all their core IP for it. Another Pokemon or Mario is not magically going to boost sales at this point. 

 

Yet the 3ds has the better lineup for this year in my opinion. I'm not blind to the fact that both need replaced, but the lineups for this year for both is fine, and people just assume next year has nothing.

 

The lineup really isn't what's important, it's the sales. 3DS has been declining for a few years now and the upcoming lineup is not going to change that. Here are the 3DS yearly shipments for hardware & software.

FY10-3.61 & 9.43

FY11-13.53 & 36.00

FY12-13.95 & 49.61

FY13-12.24 & 67.89

FY14-8.73 & 62.74

FY15-7.60 & 56.00 (Nintendo forcast)

What will FY16 look like at this rate? 5~ million hardware & sub-50 million software. Wii U has done a relatively consistent 3 million hardware & 20 million software but it's bound to start decling so total sales will be something like 8 million hardware and 60~ million software. Thats not even considering the 7-8 months between the end of FY16 & Holiday 2017 where 3DS/Wii U will even worse. Basically with a Holiday 2017 release, people are asking for Nintendo to basically become irrelevant before releasing a successor.

Edit: and before anyone says 8 million hardware in a year is good, remember that it would be Nintendo's worst yearly shipments since the 80s.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Miyamotoo said:
Thunderbird77 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Who said NX will be BC!?

Wii was BC but again Nintendo release Wii version of Zelda TP even people could play it through BC without problems.

Zelda U is very huge and expensive game, Nintendo will want to use most of it, it would be perfect launch title for new platform, same like was TP great launch title for Wii.



Don't people read? wiimotes couldn't be used to play gamecube games, so nintendo could either include a gc controller with every wii or port TP. being the same hardware also allowed the port to be made fast and cheap. Probably, none of those factors apply here. Wii U successor also having BC, but with the new controller having no problem running wii u games (or at least non gamepad focused games) + different architeture = huge game = waste of resources to port.



First we dont know if NX will have BC, second if NX will have BC we dont know will you be able to play Wii U games with NX controller or you will need Wii U controller, same like GC games on Wii or Wii games on Wii U.

You can bet that resources required to port Zelda U for NX will paid out only on NX launch with Zelda U like launch title, not mentioned sales of game after launch. Nintendo will be stupid to not port their biggest project ever and like seems one of the best Zelda games on complete new platform and make it like launch title and just live it like Wii U exclusive. But Nintendo very likely will port Zelda U for NX and it will be launch title.

Doesn't anyone read here? If for some reason the next contoller can't play all wii u games, at least the non gamepad focused will be playable. Would be stupid to port a game that's already there. People who want to play Zelda U on the wii u successor can simply buy the wii u game either phisically or digitally, no need for an extra controller, like TP gamecube.