Can't imagine it'll be much cheaper though, which makes the installed base argument near worthless. Out of those 13 million who have a PC capable of proper VR (I happily count myself among them), the percentage of people willing to shell out hundreds of dollars for VR is probably vastly bigger than that of those 36 million PS4 owners.
The average gamer doesn't really spend that much money on gaming and tech; people who have powerful PC's are a lot more likely to.
In short; it's a very simplified argument. As for myself; VR isn't really interesting yet at this point and appears nothing more than a gimmick for now, and I would not pay several hundred dollars for it (the total cost with VATS, taxes and transport fees will go into the 800-850$ ranger here in the Nordic region, which is way beyond ridiculous for a peripheral with almost zero function and impact yet).
Its onyl worthless if your on the other side of the opinion. Fact is its a fact, not only by the time VR comes there will actually be 40m PS4 in the wild Sony is backing VR with one of their biggest franchises.
PS has a massive advantage, Gran Turismo can push more headsets then all the occulus games combined. This fanbase is already used to buying expensive add ons for the game.
Like all those who bought a Logitech G27 for GT5 and GT6? Gran Turismo owners are used to buying expensive add-on's for games? That's news to me, most of my pals who bought one or more of the games didn't own anything besides the disc(s) and the console and the steering wheels didn't really fly off shelves despite the GT games (plus; these steering wheels had support for practically every racing there was and were great value due to that). And they cost quite a bit less as well. Kinect sold around 20 million units or so and was a fraction of the price and had mainstream appeal on top.
Like I said; average gamers don't spend that much on gaming, the attach rates through the generations paints a picture supporting that. People who buy 100+ games for one console for a generation and spend thousands on peripherals are the minority by leaps and bounds.
PS4 probably won't be the platform to spurr VR into something big, the technology is too young, too expensive and has lackluster developer incentive right now and there probably won't be an abundance of good titles with proper VR support.
Wasn't PS4 also supposed to usher in 4k gaming and 60 FPS 1080p gaming? That's what people said last generation, and PS3 was supposed to staple 1080p gaming in the industry. All this has been said before. Look, I'm not saying it's impossible that VR will be a success, on PS4 or otherwise, but I see it as unlikely, the prices are ridiculous and I can see only enthusiasts willing to shell out this kind of money on a peripheral, that doesn't make for a huge market. To expect more casual oriented gamers, which make up the majority of any platform's installed base, to suddenly buy these kits in droves is highly unrealistic no matter how one looks at it and my argument for those 13 million vs those 36 million still very much stands regardless of yours or my personal opinion on the product itself.