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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - It's November 21st 2016. The NX is out and more powerful than the PS4. Are 3rd parties on board?

 

3rd party multiplats

Support the NX 224 41.87%
 
Ignore the NX 311 58.13%
 
Total:535

As long as the architecture is similar to that of the PS4/XB1/PC, and Nintendo fans actually purchase these games, I don't see why not. But, I imagine publishers/devs will be watching the sales of the first few 3rd party titles on NX, to see if it's worth the effort.



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And then you wake up! :D

I doubt 3rd parties will be on board like they are on the Xbox. They will wait for the installed base. The installed base won't be more than the Wii U without 3rd party support, etc.
The only way out to that conundrum is to have a system that captures the casual market. Then it has the installed base, then 3rd parties release some shovelware, doesnt sell. They abandon the system.

You know, it changes nothing. A new home console is not a way to save anyone. It will just be another Dreamcast.



Thunderbird77 said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

Four things need to happen for 3rd party support, not just one. First, the console needs to be at or over PS4/Xbox One power. Second, it needs to have a standard controller. Third, it needs to allow third parties the same amenities as the other two guys do such as DLC policies etc. and four, it needs to heave decent HDD space so as to ensure that DLC will actually have a place to go.

If Nintendo wants third party, they will get it. We haven't seen them do that though since the SNES. Sure, they've always wanted it, but it's obvious to everyone that they haven't made it a top priority.

All of that is a given for a  new home console but is not what it takes for support.



 

We disagree entirely.



Thunderbird77 said:
JWeinCom said:
Normchacho said:
JWeinCom said:

 


No, it has to have a gimmick, because if it's essentially the same as the already successful PS4, there is no market for it.  

 

No, it's needs to have a draw. A draw and a gimmick aren't the same thing. Motion controls, that's a gimmick. A PS4 that plays Nintendo games, that's a draw. A console that has a large, diverse library of games for both kids and their parents, that's a draw. A Nintendo console that isn't hindered by weak hardware and a dearth of thrid party content makes a very good case for itself.

Gimmick and draw mean the same thing.  But, I get what you mean, and I still completely disagree.

Take a look at the Gamecube.  More powerful than the PS2, Nintendo games, and fairly decent third party support.  Bombed.  

Even IF we assume that the NX gets every third party game day one from launch (which is absolutely unrealistic), then the NX will STILL be 3 years behind in its library.  So, in 2017 what is the draw for the NX exactly?  A few Nintendo exclusives vs 3 years of titles?  The console won't have a library as large and diverse as their rivals for at least two years, and by that time we'll be looking at the PS5.

And how is Nintendo going to draw hype for this thing?  In one booth, Sony has a VR helmet, Microsoft has hololens.  Nintendo has the same thing their competitors made in 2013, but in 2016.  You think that's going to draw headlines?  You think anyone besides the biggest Nintendo, who will buy the thing no matter what, will care?  If you're launching 3 years after a competitor you damn sure better have something to make your product standout, and Nintendo's software is not enough.  If Nintendo's games were THAT big of a draw, the Wii U would not be tanking as badly as it is..  If Nintendo launches without a gimmick, they're essentially begging for Sony's table scraps.

How do ps5 and xbox ??? compete with their rivals that have a 4-5 year library and are much cheaper? wii u's successor is in the same situation as any new gen console, it's competitors will be ps5 and xbox ??? As for the start of your example, all third party releases from that point onwards + nintendo games would make the machine incredibly atractive for the 66% of 7 gen console owners still without an 8 gen console by late 2016. They might as well go for the 9 gen with wii u's replacement.

And do bear in mind that GC didn't have decent third party support, it released one year after ps2 and most major third party games of that gen were ps2 exclusives.



Come on, you don't know the difference between a console launching in the middle of a generation and the start of the new one? 

The PS4 and XBox One launched when their previous consoles had reached their saturation point.  Gamers will be bored with their consoles and ready to upgrade.  They launched about 7 years after their predecessors.  This means technology had advanced to the point where they could make a significantly more powerful machine for an affordable price.  They launched when at a time where none of the major first parties were promoting their previous consoles with software or marketing in a significant capacity.  The PS4 and XBox One had features their predecessors did not.  If the NX goes a traditional route, it will not have feature the PS4One won't have.

The NX will be launching in the middle of the generation.  Microsoft and Sony will still be promoting their console with multimillion dollar ad campaigns and should be releasing some of their biggest titles at the time.  The systems will have not yet reached market saturation, and the systems will be getting strong support for at least 3 years.  Gamers who adopted early in the generation (which we'll call 33% for argument's sake) will not want to upgrade.  Those who do want to upgrade will have to choose between an unproven system with no notable gimmick to seperate it from its competition, and systems with established playerbases for online, and a library of exclusives and third party titles.  Only two years will have passed, so Nintendo will not be able to produce a meaningful boost in graphics while maintaining competitive pricing.  It's ridiculous to say they'll be in the same situation as any other new gen console.

The 7th gen market was about 150 million between the XBoxand PS3.  It would be silly to add in the entire Wii audience, because a large amount of those were casual gamers who won't be interested in a traditional console from Nintendo.  So, let's figure in about half of those, and we get to 200 million.  The PS4 and XBone will be at around 75 million at that point.  If we assume that the NX will have an equal amount of appeal to the PS4 and XBone (which it totally won't if they go the traditional route) they'll be looking at a bit more than 1/3 of that market.  So, that would be, in a best case scenatio, about 50 million.  Most likely, it will be significantly less than that.  Like 30 million.

The differences are pretty obvious.  Nintendo launching a traditional console *might* have worked in 2013.  No chance in hell it will work now.



JWeinCom said:
Thunderbird77 said:
JWeinCom said:

Gimmick and draw mean the same thing.  But, I get what you mean, and I still completely disagree.

Take a look at the Gamecube.  More powerful than the PS2, Nintendo games, and fairly decent third party support.  Bombed.  

Even IF we assume that the NX gets every third party game day one from launch (which is absolutely unrealistic), then the NX will STILL be 3 years behind in its library.  So, in 2017 what is the draw for the NX exactly?  A few Nintendo exclusives vs 3 years of titles?  The console won't have a library as large and diverse as their rivals for at least two years, and by that time we'll be looking at the PS5.

And how is Nintendo going to draw hype for this thing?  In one booth, Sony has a VR helmet, Microsoft has hololens.  Nintendo has the same thing their competitors made in 2013, but in 2016.  You think that's going to draw headlines?  You think anyone besides the biggest Nintendo, who will buy the thing no matter what, will care?  If you're launching 3 years after a competitor you damn sure better have something to make your product standout, and Nintendo's software is not enough.  If Nintendo's games were THAT big of a draw, the Wii U would not be tanking as badly as it is..  If Nintendo launches without a gimmick, they're essentially begging for Sony's table scraps.

How do ps5 and xbox ??? compete with their rivals that have a 4-5 year library and are much cheaper? wii u's successor is in the same situation as any new gen console, it's competitors will be ps5 and xbox ??? As for the start of your example, all third party releases from that point onwards + nintendo games would make the machine incredibly atractive for the 66% of 7 gen console owners still without an 8 gen console by late 2016. They might as well go for the 9 gen with wii u's replacement.

And do bear in mind that GC didn't have decent third party support, it released one year after ps2 and most major third party games of that gen were ps2 exclusives.



Come on, you don't know the difference between a console launching in the middle of a generation and the start of the new one? 

The PS4 and XBox One launched when their previous consoles had reached their saturation point.  Gamers will be bored with their consoles and ready to upgrade.  They launched about 7 years after their predecessors.  This means technology had advanced to the point where they could make a significantly more powerful machine for an affordable price.  They launched when at a time where none of the major first parties were promoting their previous consoles with software or marketing in a significant capacity.  The PS4 and XBox One had features their predecessors did not.  If the NX goes a traditional route, it will not have feature the PS4One won't have.

The NX will be launching in the middle of the generation.  Microsoft and Sony will still be promoting their console with multimillion dollar ad campaigns and should be releasing some of their biggest titles at the time.  The systems will have not yet reached market saturation, and the systems will be getting strong support for at least 3 years.  Gamers who adopted early in the generation (which we'll call 33% for argument's sake) will not want to upgrade.  Those who do want to upgrade will have to choose between an unproven system with no notable gimmick to seperate it from its competition, and systems with established playerbases for online, and a library of exclusives and third party titles.  Only two years will have passed, so Nintendo will not be able to produce a meaningful boost in graphics while maintaining competitive pricing.  It's ridiculous to say they'll be in the same situation as any other new gen console.

The 7th gen market was about 150 million between the XBoxand PS3.  It would be silly to add in the entire Wii audience, because a large amount of those were casual gamers who won't be interested in a traditional console from Nintendo.  So, let's figure in about half of those, and we get to 200 million.  The PS4 and XBone will be at around 75 million at that point.  If we assume that the NX will have an equal amount of appeal to the PS4 and XBone (which it totally won't if they go the traditional route) they'll be looking at a bit more than 1/3 of that market.  So, that would be, in a best case scenatio, about 50 million.  Most likely, it will be significantly less than that.  Like 30 million.

The differences are pretty obvious.  Nintendo launching a traditional console *might* have worked in 2013.  No chance in hell it will work now.

Whatever replaces wii u won't be releasing in the "middle of a generation", it will be the start of the 9 gen and may be a little sooner than usual (if it launches 4 years after wii u). You can't say early adobters of the 8 gen will not want to upgrade. But as I said, they don't have to do so imedeately, many people still won't have upgraded their 7 gen systems.

the 7th gen market wasn't 150m between ps3 and 360. when factoring broken consoles and double dippers, it's 130m at most. adding wii buyers and factoring triple dippers gives us around 200-210m. most of those people are potential buyers for whatever nintendo releases and the people who already own an 8 gen system may consider wii u's successor as their 9 gen system after a while.

As for power, what does it matter if "it has been two years"? it will be a minimum of 3 years when the console launches and the tech inside ps4 and x1 wasn't even new in 2013. It's totally possible and probable to have a significant upgrade over those two without a much higher bill of materials.





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Thunderbird77 said:
JWeinCom said:
Thunderbird77 said:
JWeinCom said:

Gimmick and draw mean the same thing.  But, I get what you mean, and I still completely disagree.

Take a look at the Gamecube.  More powerful than the PS2, Nintendo games, and fairly decent third party support.  Bombed.  

Even IF we assume that the NX gets every third party game day one from launch (which is absolutely unrealistic), then the NX will STILL be 3 years behind in its library.  So, in 2017 what is the draw for the NX exactly?  A few Nintendo exclusives vs 3 years of titles?  The console won't have a library as large and diverse as their rivals for at least two years, and by that time we'll be looking at the PS5.

And how is Nintendo going to draw hype for this thing?  In one booth, Sony has a VR helmet, Microsoft has hololens.  Nintendo has the same thing their competitors made in 2013, but in 2016.  You think that's going to draw headlines?  You think anyone besides the biggest Nintendo, who will buy the thing no matter what, will care?  If you're launching 3 years after a competitor you damn sure better have something to make your product standout, and Nintendo's software is not enough.  If Nintendo's games were THAT big of a draw, the Wii U would not be tanking as badly as it is..  If Nintendo launches without a gimmick, they're essentially begging for Sony's table scraps.

How do ps5 and xbox ??? compete with their rivals that have a 4-5 year library and are much cheaper? wii u's successor is in the same situation as any new gen console, it's competitors will be ps5 and xbox ??? As for the start of your example, all third party releases from that point onwards + nintendo games would make the machine incredibly atractive for the 66% of 7 gen console owners still without an 8 gen console by late 2016. They might as well go for the 9 gen with wii u's replacement.

And do bear in mind that GC didn't have decent third party support, it released one year after ps2 and most major third party games of that gen were ps2 exclusives.



Come on, you don't know the difference between a console launching in the middle of a generation and the start of the new one? 

The PS4 and XBox One launched when their previous consoles had reached their saturation point.  Gamers will be bored with their consoles and ready to upgrade.  They launched about 7 years after their predecessors.  This means technology had advanced to the point where they could make a significantly more powerful machine for an affordable price.  They launched when at a time where none of the major first parties were promoting their previous consoles with software or marketing in a significant capacity.  The PS4 and XBox One had features their predecessors did not.  If the NX goes a traditional route, it will not have feature the PS4One won't have.

The NX will be launching in the middle of the generation.  Microsoft and Sony will still be promoting their console with multimillion dollar ad campaigns and should be releasing some of their biggest titles at the time.  The systems will have not yet reached market saturation, and the systems will be getting strong support for at least 3 years.  Gamers who adopted early in the generation (which we'll call 33% for argument's sake) will not want to upgrade.  Those who do want to upgrade will have to choose between an unproven system with no notable gimmick to seperate it from its competition, and systems with established playerbases for online, and a library of exclusives and third party titles.  Only two years will have passed, so Nintendo will not be able to produce a meaningful boost in graphics while maintaining competitive pricing.  It's ridiculous to say they'll be in the same situation as any other new gen console.

The 7th gen market was about 150 million between the XBoxand PS3.  It would be silly to add in the entire Wii audience, because a large amount of those were casual gamers who won't be interested in a traditional console from Nintendo.  So, let's figure in about half of those, and we get to 200 million.  The PS4 and XBone will be at around 75 million at that point.  If we assume that the NX will have an equal amount of appeal to the PS4 and XBone (which it totally won't if they go the traditional route) they'll be looking at a bit more than 1/3 of that market.  So, that would be, in a best case scenatio, about 50 million.  Most likely, it will be significantly less than that.  Like 30 million.

The differences are pretty obvious.  Nintendo launching a traditional console *might* have worked in 2013.  No chance in hell it will work now.

 

 

 


"Whatever replaces wii u won't be releasing in the "middle of a generation", it will be the start of the 9 gen and may be a little sooner than usual (if it launches 4 years after wii u). You can't say early adobters of the 8 gen will not want to upgrade. But as I said, they don't have to do so imedeately, many people still won't have upgraded their 7 gen systems."

Splitting hairs here, and that really doesn't address anything I said..  The point is they'll be launching in the middle of the PS4 and XBox One's lifecycle.  

"the 7th gen market wasn't 150m between ps3 and 360. when factoring broken consoles and double dippers, it's 130m at most. adding wii buyers and factoring triple dippers gives us around 200-210m. most of those people are potential buyers for whatever nintendo releases and the people who already own an 8 gen system may consider wii u's successor as their 9 gen system after a while."

I don't know why we would factor in tripple dippers, because they're already counted in the PS3 and XBox 360 numbers.  But this really doesn't change anything.  They're still limited to about one third of about 140 million in a scenario where they take a third of the market.  And Nintendo is not likely to get that.  People won't consider the NX a next gen console if it is similar to the PS4 and XBox One in all regards as was suggested in the original post I was replying to.

"As for power, what does it matter if "it has been two years"? it will be a minimum of 3 years when the console launches and the tech inside ps4 and x1 wasn't even new in 2013. It's totally possible and probable to have a significant upgrade over those two without a much higher bill of materials."

Really?  This is really basic stuff.  The difference between two and seven years in technology is absolutely enormous in terms of price and power.  It is neither probable to have a significant upgrade over the other two consoles in two years without being much higher in price, especially when you consider that those consoles have already dropped 50 bucks and will likely drop another 50 by the time NX is out.  It is only possible if Nintendo takes a huge loss on each console.

Bottom line is, you're not going to make a significantly more powerful console without a significantly higher cost.  The more powerful chips are not going to somehow get cheaper than the less powerful one in two years.



padib said:

Close your eyes. The date is November 21st 2016, and the NX has just launched. This time, Nintendo did everything right. It has a 1TB internal Hard Drive, capable of graphics better than on the PS4 from a HW architecture level and from the graphics benchmarks of the few multiplatform games that launch with it. The OS is fast and the system is launched at a competitive price (300$)

You know the future. Your name is Agrippa Pachter, and you are a genius. You've seen it happen before it happens.

So, do 3rd parties stay on board, or do they disappear?

If not, what would Nintendo need to do to attract them?

Rules:

- You must provide business logic as to how your vision reflects reality.

- Think about bottom lines, what 3rd parties are looking for. 

- Think about industry philosophies, and how Nintendo has a unique approach to the industry compared to the other two manufacturers.

- The launch difference between the NX and the other two platforms of this gen, and how this discrepancy did or did not have an impact in the past.

- Think about the value in Nintendo's IPs, or the value in their unique hardware designs.

- Post thoughtfully and respectfully.

- ESPECIALLY: Do not complain about the existence of this thread, or ask for it to be talked about in the defunct official NX thread:
 http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7694888

Update:  I just want to say thanks to everyone for the interesting answers.

It's disappointing that you lost interest in proctoring a defense of your beliefs. I have sincere doubts that Nintendo will ever regain the business of the so-called third party. 





JWeinCom said:
Thunderbird77 said:

 

 

 


"Whatever replaces wii u won't be releasing in the "middle of a generation", it will be the start of the 9 gen and may be a little sooner than usual (if it launches 4 years after wii u). You can't say early adobters of the 8 gen will not want to upgrade. But as I said, they don't have to do so imedeately, many people still won't have upgraded their 7 gen systems."

Splitting hairs here, and that really doesn't address anything I said..  The point is they'll be launching in the middle of the PS4 and XBox One's lifecycle.  

"the 7th gen market wasn't 150m between ps3 and 360. when factoring broken consoles and double dippers, it's 130m at most. adding wii buyers and factoring triple dippers gives us around 200-210m. most of those people are potential buyers for whatever nintendo releases and the people who already own an 8 gen system may consider wii u's successor as their 9 gen system after a while."

I don't know why we would factor in tripple dippers, because they're already counted in the PS3 and XBox 360 numbers.  But this really doesn't change anything.  They're still limited to about one third of about 140 million in a scenario where they take a third of the market.  And Nintendo is not likely to get that.  People won't consider the NX a next gen console if it is similar to the PS4 and XBox One in all regards as was suggested in the original post I was replying to.

"As for power, what does it matter if "it has been two years"? it will be a minimum of 3 years when the console launches and the tech inside ps4 and x1 wasn't even new in 2013. It's totally possible and probable to have a significant upgrade over those two without a much higher bill of materials."

Really?  This is really basic stuff.  The difference between two and seven years in technology is absolutely enormous in terms of price and power.  It is neither probable to have a significant upgrade over the other two consoles in two years without being much higher in price, especially when you consider that those consoles have already dropped 50 bucks and will likely drop another 50 by the time NX is out.  It is only possible if Nintendo takes a huge loss on each console.

Bottom line is, you're not going to make a significantly more powerful console without a significantly higher cost.  The more powerful chips are not going to somehow get cheaper than the less powerful one in two years.

The generation started in 2012. minimum of for years later isn't in the middle. again with the 2 year thing? it will be 3 years minimum and bear in mind that ps360 used top hardwrae for their time while ps4 and x1 don't. the power gap tends to get even smaller in the future for all consoles.

Of course the cost will be significantly higher but sony and MS are selling their consoles at high profit margins, if nintendo breaks even or take a small loss at launch, they can get more powerfull hardware retailing for similar prices.  there's also the advantage of nintendo probably going with less hdd and better manufacturing deals to lower the costs.

Since this conversation isn't going anywhere, I'll stop here. Let's see how thing go.





Honestly consoles should drop the hdd internally as the games are getting bigger, the patches are getting bigger and more importantly most want you to install them.

All games should be installed on external attached drives next gen. Saves the trouble of fucking around with backing up the whole system drive, then pulling out a drive when you run out of space then having to reapply the backup to the main.

So

- A system sdd for system applications only
- External Drive A
- External Drive B
- etc..

Just plug in the external with the game you want to play simple.

I would actually also love to see the console go a step further and allow you to install the full game (not just 80% of it) from disc like a digital copy does. This way people who like physical collections can still get them and not burn out the laser in no time.



 

 

Nem said:
And then you wake up! :D

I doubt 3rd parties will be on board like they are on the Xbox. They will wait for the installed base. The installed base won't be more than the Wii U without 3rd party support, etc.
The only way out to that conundrum is to have a system that captures the casual market. Then it has the installed base, then 3rd parties release some shovelware, doesnt sell. They abandon the system.

You know, it changes nothing. A new home console is not a way to save anyone. It will just be another Dreamcast.

 

3rd parties won't necessarily have to wait for the NX to build a sufficient install base before they start releasing games for it.  If there is enough hype around the unveiling of the console and there is a feeling that Nintendo is on to something with the NX then some 3rd parties will start developing for it long before it reaches the 20-30 million install base and maybe even before the console releases just because they can see its potential.  It's like any investment: if you wait for something to fully develop then you are already too late to make money.  3rd party developers are no different, if they think that the NX has potential to be huge they will want to develop for it first just to beat their own competitors to a new platform.

Now, Nintendo can definitely help themselves here by making the NX easy and cheap to port game onto, but I believe that the biggest factor deciding whether the NX will get 3rd party support will be whether the overlying concept of the NX takes off and garners popularity.  If it does, then both gamers and 3rd party developers will come to the NX at the same time (they have a symbiotic relationship, afterall).  I do not believe that nintendo necessarily needs to target casuals to do this, either.