In November, PS4 had a weekly average of 385k consoles sold in the US.
To reach 2M in December, it needs a 400k weekly average. Not much of a difference right? On one hand, December doesn't have a week as big as BF and does not include bundle pre orders. On the other hand, it does include Cyber Monday and had the ps4 at BF price for 2 weeks.
I'm still going with 1.65M for now, but we'll know better when Sony gives us end of 2015 LTD numbers. Last year those allowed me to correctly predict December NPD with near pinpoint accuracy, I expect to be able to do the same this year. So, January 4th, I will know.