windbane said:
Bodhesatva said:
windbane said:
Bodhesatva said:
windbane said:
Well, when FF7 came out in Japan (january), the PS1 had less than a 12-million user base. I'm using the March 1997 numbers for this (on this site). It was 20 million by the time it was released in the US. FF7 sold 9.72 million copies. That alone should end this install base arguement. FFX come out when around 20 million PS2s were owned (September numbers being inbetween the US and Japanese release dates). It sold 7.95 million. So... Final Fantasy VII: 12 million install base, 9.72 sold. Final Fantasy X: 20 million install base, 7.95 sold. Metal Gear Solid 1: 43 million install base, 5.51 million sold. Metal Gear Solid 2: Over a 20 million install base (came out 2 months later), 5.56 million sold. Gran Turismo 1: 32+ (month early) million user base, 10.85 million sold. Crash Bandicoot 1: 8.06 user base, 6.76 million sold. Grand Theft Auto 3: 20+ million user base, 11.60 million sold. Even if MGS4 keeps to a 4:1 ratio, it will obviously sell 1 million copies (as someone predicted it wouldn't). The install base will be quite a bit higher when MGS4 comes out than it is now. A lot of the games listed show that the install base doesn't directly tell you how well your game is going to sell. If the game is great, it will sell. |
First, the problem with this logic is obvious: these sytems went on to be the best selling systems of their generation. Grand Theft Auto III, for example, sold copies over the entire course of the PS2's life. It isn't just how many systems are sold when the game technically releases, it's how many are sold over time. For many games this isn't relevant: for these franchises in particular -- which are almost unquestionably the most important franchises for the PS's success -- they continue to sell long after their initial release. In other words, a person who purchased a PS2 for Final Fantasy X (as an example) would often pick up GTA, now that they have the system. Note that Grand Theft Auto 3 and MGS2 came out at approximately the same time, yet GTA sold twice as many copies as MGS did. Second, note that Gran Turismo came out during the same time frame as Final Fantasy, in your chart. That was the best selling game on the Playstation 1 by a significant margin. Your suggestion that this jump in sales is contributable to Final Fantasy exclusively is patently absurd. I'd say at least as many -- if not more -- bought the system for Gran Turismo, and another group bought it for other games not listed here. Final Fantasy VII was a big hit, and so was the Playstation 1, no question. Can you give me any seroius evidence showing that Final Fantasy VII sold 5+ million Playstations, and not, say, Gran Turismo, or Spyro (also in the same time frame), or any other game important to the system? Lastly, can you show me who predicted that MGS4 won't sell 1 million copies? Just point it out to me. Just quote it please. Thanks. What you've shown me suggests, most importantly, that Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, and Grand Theft Auto all sell more systems than MGS does. |
ake the CFO happy. If the average Namco game requires 500,000 units sold to break even, I'd assume that 800,00 or 1,000,000 copies of MGS4 would be a reasonable assumption for the break-even point. At this point, the odds of selling considerably more than 1,000,000 copies are slim." Turns out that was you. Now, you saved yourself by saying "slim" but you are obviously suggesting it might not reach 1 million in sales. I think that is absurd. |
I was the one who said that. I said it won't sell a great deal more than 1,000,000 copies. That means I think it will sell more than 1,000,000, but not much more. I really have no idea how you could possibly interpret that as "Metal Gear Solid 4 will sell less than 1,000,000 copies." I'm going to remind you of what you said. I quote you: "There are probably 2 million people that will buy the console just to play MGS4." That explicitly states that 2 million people will buy a PS3 for MGS4 exclusively. I'd totally agree if you said: "There are probably 2 million people that will buy the console to play MGS4, Final Fantasy XIII, and other great and important games coming out in the first half of 2008." Would you like to change your statement? Is that what you really meant? |
Geez, man. I know you said that. I just said you said that. You said there is a "slim" chance for it to sell considerably more than 1 million. Fine. I think it will sell much more than that. By saying slim you don't sound very sure it will even sell 1 million, but of course, you are vague, so you could be right under many circumstances. No, I am not changing my statement. I for one kept my PS3 (sold 1) because I knew MGS was coming. That series is my favorite one. You are guessing just as much as me, and making less sense at it. Games that have sold well despite low install bases throughout the lifetime of the console: Every Mario game for the Gamecube, Halo 1, Halo 2, Crazy Taxi (DC), a lot of other Nintendo franchises on the GC, RE4 (GC), Gears of War, a bunch of other shooters for the 360, Oblivion, Madden, Fable, GTA Double Pack, KotOR, DoA 3, and more but I'm lazy. All those sold "considerably" more than 1 million copies. |
