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Forums - Gaming Discussion - MGS4 on 360....maybe?

Blue3 on 19 May 2007
Bodhesatva said:


 

That can't make the CFO happy. If the average Namco game requires 500,000 units sold to break even, I'd assume that 800,00 or 1,000,000 copies of MGS4 would be a reasonable assumption for the break-even point. At this point, the odds of selling considerably more than 1,000,000 copies are slim.


At this point Resistance has already done a million.

By the time it hits 3 million will be a walk in the park.

 

 



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Bodhesatva on 19 May 2007
Blue3 said:
Bodhesatva said:


 

That can't make the CFO happy. If the average Namco game requires 500,000 units sold to break even, I'd assume that 800,00 or 1,000,000 copies of MGS4 would be a reasonable assumption for the break-even point. At this point, the odds of selling considerably more than 1,000,000 copies are slim.


At this point Resistance has already done a million.

By the time it hits 3 million will be a walk in the park.

 

 


That's partly because the launch titles were so meagre -- Resistance was easily the best game available.

 

Consider GTA: San Andreas. It did spectacularly well. It sold 25 million copies. There are 110 million PS2 consoles. This means it sold to approximately 20-25 percent of PS2 owners.

Unless there are unusual circumstances (such as the system has just launched and has a total of 10 games), most games -- even really really good ones -- can't expect to sell to more than 25 percent of system owners. It's just incredibly uncommon historically. Assuming that MGS4 isn't a magical mystical game that breaks historical trends (it's possible, I suppose), and assuming the PS3 doesn't somehow launch into the stratosphere, passing 10 million systems sold by the time the game comes out, I strongly doubt will see much more than 2 million copies of this game. 



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

windbane on 19 May 2007
Blue3 said:
Bodhesatva said:


 

That can't make the CFO happy. If the average Namco game requires 500,000 units sold to break even, I'd assume that 800,00 or 1,000,000 copies of MGS4 would be a reasonable assumption for the break-even point. At this point, the odds of selling considerably more than 1,000,000 copies are slim.


At this point Resistance has already done a million.

By the time it hits 3 million will be a walk in the park.

 

 


Indeed.  The odds of it selling less than 1 million are so low, your comment is very laughable, Bodhesatva.



Dolla Dolla on 19 May 2007

Metal Gear Solid 3 only sold about 4 million copies, less than 5% of the PS2 userbase. Are we to assume MGS4 will sell to more than 30% of the PS3 userbase when it releases?



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Custom GIFs Thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=18963
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Bodhesatva on 19 May 2007
windbane said:
Blue3 said:
Bodhesatva said:


 

That can't make the CFO happy. If the average Namco game requires 500,000 units sold to break even, I'd assume that 800,00 or 1,000,000 copies of MGS4 would be a reasonable assumption for the break-even point. At this point, the odds of selling considerably more than 1,000,000 copies are slim.


At this point Resistance has already done a million.

By the time it hits 3 million will be a walk in the park.

 

 


Indeed. The odds of it selling less than 1 million are so low, your comment is very laughable, Bodhesatva.


 I'm not suggesting that MGS is likely to lose money. I'm saying it's likely to make very little, and companies don't like three year developmental cycles that cost a ton of money and barely make back their developmental costs.



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

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johnsobas on 19 May 2007
Legend11 said:
I think it's now coming for Xbox 360... http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159604 Quickly, third-party publishers have moved from platform exclusivity to supporting Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 simultaneously. Devil May Cry, once a Sony-exclusive series, is suddenly appearing on both this fall. Last generation, Xbox would have received the port six months later. Now, it's at the same time. Rumors suggested the same fate's falling on one of PS3's biggest hitters, Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots. 1UP's James Mielke, Ryan O'Donnel and Shane Bettenhausen joined Ryan Payton's Kojima Productions Report podcast this week in Japan, where the four debated the ups and downs of multi-platform production, SIXAXIS support and more. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes, download the MP3 directly or keep tabs on the podcast's website. Payton knows fans have legitimate concerns about Kojima Productions possibly compromising the game's ambition due to issues arising from concurrent Xbox 360 development -- divided resources, less disc space, etc. -- and he addressed those directly: "I can tell you honestly at this point, we have not changed the game in any form with the idea of 'oh, we got to do this on 360.' Put aside whether or not we're developing for 360 or not, the game is built on the PS3 hardware, as you guys have known for the past two years or so." In other words: if MGS4 comes to Xbox 360, it has not affected the game's development. This is the same game Hideo Kojima decided to produce from day one. Make sure to listen to the podcast for more from Payton and the 1UP boys about Snake, Xbox 360 vs. PS3 and more.
The more i read this stuff the more i think it will be out on 360.  This statement isn't even a denial, all they said is that if it comes out on 360 that will not affect how they make the PS3 version.  If they are not denying it there must be truth behind it that they are deeply considering it or already developing it.

 



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a.l.e.x59 on 20 May 2007

It definitely should. It's going to be a very expensive games, therefore, they need as many sales as they can get in order to make a profit, and that certainly wont be achieved if it only debuts for the Playstation 3.



windbane on 20 May 2007
johnsobas said:
Legend11 said:
I think it's now coming for Xbox 360... http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159604 Quickly, third-party publishers have moved from platform exclusivity to supporting Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 simultaneously. Devil May Cry, once a Sony-exclusive series, is suddenly appearing on both this fall. Last generation, Xbox would have received the port six months later. Now, it's at the same time. Rumors suggested the same fate's falling on one of PS3's biggest hitters, Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots. 1UP's James Mielke, Ryan O'Donnel and Shane Bettenhausen joined Ryan Payton's Kojima Productions Report podcast this week in Japan, where the four debated the ups and downs of multi-platform production, SIXAXIS support and more. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes, download the MP3 directly or keep tabs on the podcast's website. Payton knows fans have legitimate concerns about Kojima Productions possibly compromising the game's ambition due to issues arising from concurrent Xbox 360 development -- divided resources, less disc space, etc. -- and he addressed those directly: "I can tell you honestly at this point, we have not changed the game in any form with the idea of 'oh, we got to do this on 360.' Put aside whether or not we're developing for 360 or not, the game is built on the PS3 hardware, as you guys have known for the past two years or so." In other words: if MGS4 comes to Xbox 360, it has not affected the game's development. This is the same game Hideo Kojima decided to produce from day one. Make sure to listen to the podcast for more from Payton and the 1UP boys about Snake, Xbox 360 vs. PS3 and more.
The more i read this stuff the more i think it will be out on 360. This statement isn't even a denial, all they said is that if it comes out on 360 that will not affect how they make the PS3 version. If they are not denying it there must be truth behind it that they are deeply considering it or already developing it.

 


I listened to the podcast and the only reason he didn't deny is just in case they do in the future.  As of now, there is no plan to do it.  Kojima has said PS3 only many times.  What he was saying is that they are making the game without even considering the 360, because they are looking to take complete advantage of the PS3 hardware.  Ingraining your code into the PS3 hardware will make the game better, and they would have to recode the game for the 360.  If they have not changed the game with the 360 in the mind, they are not developing for the 360.  They would have the change things for the 360, including motion sensing that is included (and rumble may be back in time for the game as well).

Dolla Dolla:  What was the install base when FF7 came out?  Not very high I believe.  Tell me the install base when MGS1 came out.  There are probably 2 million people that will buy the console just to play MGS4, if they haven't already.  Certain games are just going to sell well.  The install base for the xbox wasn't very high, and yet they sold plenty of Halo 1 and 2, didn't they?  I believe a few Mario games sold well on the Gamecube and N64 as well.

It takes a lot of games to establish a large userbase, but great games transcend and expand userbases. 



Bodhesatva on 20 May 2007
windbane said:
johnsobas said:
Legend11 said:
I think it's now coming for Xbox 360... http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159604 Quickly, third-party publishers have moved from platform exclusivity to supporting Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 simultaneously. Devil May Cry, once a Sony-exclusive series, is suddenly appearing on both this fall. Last generation, Xbox would have received the port six months later. Now, it's at the same time. Rumors suggested the same fate's falling on one of PS3's biggest hitters, Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots. 1UP's James Mielke, Ryan O'Donnel and Shane Bettenhausen joined Ryan Payton's Kojima Productions Report podcast this week in Japan, where the four debated the ups and downs of multi-platform production, SIXAXIS support and more. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes, download the MP3 directly or keep tabs on the podcast's website. Payton knows fans have legitimate concerns about Kojima Productions possibly compromising the game's ambition due to issues arising from concurrent Xbox 360 development -- divided resources, less disc space, etc. -- and he addressed those directly: "I can tell you honestly at this point, we have not changed the game in any form with the idea of 'oh, we got to do this on 360.' Put aside whether or not we're developing for 360 or not, the game is built on the PS3 hardware, as you guys have known for the past two years or so." In other words: if MGS4 comes to Xbox 360, it has not affected the game's development. This is the same game Hideo Kojima decided to produce from day one. Make sure to listen to the podcast for more from Payton and the 1UP boys about Snake, Xbox 360 vs. PS3 and more.
The more i read this stuff the more i think it will be out on 360. This statement isn't even a denial, all they said is that if it comes out on 360 that will not affect how they make the PS3 version. If they are not denying it there must be truth behind it that they are deeply considering it or already developing it.

 


I listened to the podcast and the only reason he didn't deny is just in case they do in the future. As of now, there is no plan to do it. Kojima has said PS3 only many times. What he was saying is that they are making the game without even considering the 360, because they are looking to take complete advantage of the PS3 hardware. Ingraining your code into the PS3 hardware will make the game better, and they would have to recode the game for the 360. If they have not changed the game with the 360 in the mind, they are not developing for the 360. They would have the change things for the 360, including motion sensing that is included (and rumble may be back in time for the game as well).

Dolla Dolla: What was the install base when FF7 came out? Not very high I believe. Tell me the install base when MGS1 came out. There are probably 2 million people that will buy the console just to play MGS4, if they haven't already. Certain games are just going to sell well. The install base for the xbox wasn't very high, and yet they sold plenty of Halo 1 and 2, didn't they? I believe a few Mario games sold well on the Gamecube and N64 as well.

It takes a lot of games to establish a large userbase, but great games transcend and expand userbases.


Uh, I think MGS4 will be a big seller as well, but I think 2 Million consoles sold is a little unlikely. There's really no strong evidence that any single game has ever done that for a particular console.

Again -- not saying it won't move a lot of systems, just saying that estimate is quite a bit high. The last Metal Gear sold less than 4 million copies total (not even considering how many systems it may have sold). MGS is a great and important series, no question, just think you're overestimating its popularity.

Relevant links: http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games#PlayStation_2



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

windbane on 20 May 2007
Bodhesatva said:
windbane said:
johnsobas said:
Legend11 said:
I think it's now coming for Xbox 360... http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159604 Quickly, third-party publishers have moved from platform exclusivity to supporting Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 simultaneously. Devil May Cry, once a Sony-exclusive series, is suddenly appearing on both this fall. Last generation, Xbox would have received the port six months later. Now, it's at the same time. Rumors suggested the same fate's falling on one of PS3's biggest hitters, Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots. 1UP's James Mielke, Ryan O'Donnel and Shane Bettenhausen joined Ryan Payton's Kojima Productions Report podcast this week in Japan, where the four debated the ups and downs of multi-platform production, SIXAXIS support and more. You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes, download the MP3 directly or keep tabs on the podcast's website. Payton knows fans have legitimate concerns about Kojima Productions possibly compromising the game's ambition due to issues arising from concurrent Xbox 360 development -- divided resources, less disc space, etc. -- and he addressed those directly: "I can tell you honestly at this point, we have not changed the game in any form with the idea of 'oh, we got to do this on 360.' Put aside whether or not we're developing for 360 or not, the game is built on the PS3 hardware, as you guys have known for the past two years or so." In other words: if MGS4 comes to Xbox 360, it has not affected the game's development. This is the same game Hideo Kojima decided to produce from day one. Make sure to listen to the podcast for more from Payton and the 1UP boys about Snake, Xbox 360 vs. PS3 and more.
The more i read this stuff the more i think it will be out on 360. This statement isn't even a denial, all they said is that if it comes out on 360 that will not affect how they make the PS3 version. If they are not denying it there must be truth behind it that they are deeply considering it or already developing it.

 


I listened to the podcast and the only reason he didn't deny is just in case they do in the future. As of now, there is no plan to do it. Kojima has said PS3 only many times. What he was saying is that they are making the game without even considering the 360, because they are looking to take complete advantage of the PS3 hardware. Ingraining your code into the PS3 hardware will make the game better, and they would have to recode the game for the 360. If they have not changed the game with the 360 in the mind, they are not developing for the 360. They would have the change things for the 360, including motion sensing that is included (and rumble may be back in time for the game as well).

Dolla Dolla: What was the install base when FF7 came out? Not very high I believe. Tell me the install base when MGS1 came out. There are probably 2 million people that will buy the console just to play MGS4, if they haven't already. Certain games are just going to sell well. The install base for the xbox wasn't very high, and yet they sold plenty of Halo 1 and 2, didn't they? I believe a few Mario games sold well on the Gamecube and N64 as well.

It takes a lot of games to establish a large userbase, but great games transcend and expand userbases.


Uh, I think MGS4 will be a big seller as well, but I think 2 Million consoles sold is a little unlikely. There's really no strong evidence that any single game has ever done that for a particular console.

Again -- not saying it won't move a lot of systems, just saying that estimate is quite a bit high. The last Metal Gear sold less than 4 million copies total (not even considering how many systems it may have sold). MGS is a great and important series, no question, just think you're overestimating its popularity.

Relevant links: http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games#PlayStation_2


 I don't think that's high.  I think a high percentage of current owners will get it (I included that in my 2 million), and there will be a lot of people that buy a PS3 to play it.  I also think it will sell closer to the first 2 games instead of the 3rd game.  But even if only 4 million buy it, I'm sure out of half of those they might not have bought a PS3 if not for MGS.  

Maybe I'm wrong about how many bought it just for MGS, but I expect it to sell very well no matter tha current install base.  A lot of great games come out between now and then, so the install base will rise significantly anyway.