GribbleGrunger said: Tomorrow is either going to be a HUGE surprise or an embarrassment. |
Whatever the outcome, someone is going to get a huge surprise and someone is going to be embarassed. We just don't know who yet.
The only thing I want is for Amazon not to lose its streak. It really only takes one failed month for Amazon to go back to being a seal clubbing party. If Xb one wins NPD with Amazon giving November to PS4 and with the CoD and SWBF pre-orders being factorerd in it would really be a major black mark on the predictive value of Amazon. Essentially Amazon would only be a useful predictor if there are no significant influences in the market that are not reflected in Amazon's charts. Like the Gears bundle gift card deal. If that was as big of a factor as VGC seems to be showing then because the gift card deal was absent from Amazon it means Amazon gave a highly distorted view of the over all market. Having only a minor market share of console hardware Amazon is subject to such things, so as long as external factors are known then it will still be possible to use Amazon as a NPD predictor most months of the year.
Considering NDC was #1 for the month and Gears bundle was #8, it does mean Xb one finished fairly close to PS4 on the Amazon charts. And it doesn't take too many external factors favouring Xb one for the the country-wide result to come out in favour of Xb one.
TBH I think VGC is more likely to have underestimated PS4 hardware (and possibly over-estimated Xb one hardware) for CoD week and SWBF week. Provided Xb one's 2014 BF week is approximately correct we know the Xb one number for BF week is about right as MS announced a 22% YoY increase. So the question is whether PS4 got above 767K for the week. That would represent a 317% increase in PS4 sales compared to the 380% increase in Xb one sales.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
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