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Forums - Sales Discussion - Hardware 28th November - Black Friday Week

POE on 04 December 2015

Where are the week before this one numbers?



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Teeqoz on 04 December 2015
Puppyroach said:
Teeqoz said:
Puppyroach said:
We all know PS4 needs to be adjusted upwards of 1.2-1.3M but I'm guessing it's also a matter of VGC finding out where those missing numbers are, in what country it is undertracked. Still, VGC is only about 5% of compared to official numbers from Sony, so it's not that massive.


Like I've said in a previous thread, margin of error should be calculated from last official announcement, which was 20.2 million by the end of february. So in reality, VGC is 13% off.

In what wasn't the 30.2M an official announcement?


30.2 was an official announcement. What I meant was that VGC's margin of error shouldn't be calculated based on lifetime sales, but sales since the last official milestone we got before this, which was 20.2 million. So the PS4 has sold 10 million since that, VGC has it at 8.7 million, so it's 13% off.



DonFerrari on 04 December 2015
Puppyroach said:
We all know PS4 needs to be adjusted upwards of 1.2-1.3M but I'm guessing it's also a matter of VGC finding out where those missing numbers are, in what country it is undertracked. Still, VGC is only about 5% of compared to official numbers from Sony, so it's not that massive.


It's 5% of the total, but considering Sony gave Shipped numbers of 29,3M and vgc was 2M under (don't think we had that much stuffing) and a month later 30.2M sold... then they missed 1,5M on a 3M sales period? Also look at NPDs, each month they are like 20-30% off. So it isn't accurate at all. They only get 5% of total because console makers and NPD give numbers.



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binary solo on 04 December 2015
Teeqoz said:
binary solo said:


We will have a reasonable idea when NPD comes out, if we use the first 3 weeks of VGC data for a rough reference. Vgc has PS4 ahead by about 8k for the first 3 weeks of November. So if NPD give Sony November by 20k or more it means PS4 won BF most likely. If NPD goes PS4 November by less than 20k it's possible xb one edged PS4 on BF. If Xb one wins Nov then xb one for sure took BF.

 

The Amazon chart makes it highly improbable that xb one won the whole month. But there is a possibility that ps4 wins the month and BF wins BF.


How could we use VGCs data as a basis for proving how far off VGC was/wasn't?

Whichever company wins BF will mention it in their NPD PR (I hope). Also of course BF won BF!

Bloody typing on phones.

If you have one independant data point you can use statistical modelling to estimate the most likely data range for other data points. So, if we have the NPD totals for November then we can use the difference between the NPD totals and the VGC totals to assess the VGC weekly totals. I'm not using any statistical since we don;t have an NPD total to work with. But if the end result for NPD is relatively close we can make some pretty valid assumptions about BF.



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jason1637 on 04 December 2015

Those numbers are the whole NA. so I can see x1 beating the ps4 in NA but not in the USA



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KdxlavkdX on 04 December 2015

Can't wait until NPD.



binary solo on 04 December 2015
jason1637 said:
Those numbers are the whole NA. so I can see x1 beating the ps4 in NA but not in the USA

Extremely unlikely that the whole 110K comes from outside the USA.

Also from the latest MS PR it looks like VGC is undertracking if indeed the 22% YoY increase is actual hardware sell through numbers.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

POE on 04 December 2015
POE said:
Where are the week before this one numbers?


Please someone answer this.



tak13 on 04 December 2015
binary solo said:
jason1637 said:
Those numbers are the whole NA. so I can see x1 beating the ps4 in NA but not in the USA

Extremely unlikely that the whole 110K comes from outside the USA.

Also from the latest MS PR it looks like VGC is undertracking if indeed the 22% YoY increase is actual hardware sell through numbers.


22% up  over the last year's black friday not whole november!:P ;P :P



Azuren on 05 December 2015

For the first time in many weeks, PS4 did not outsell XB1 and Wii U combined.



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