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Forums - Sales Discussion - Some Black friday info from infoscout

Ali_16x on 30 November 2015

Wait wait, so only 2000 of the receipts are game related? Haha wow, for some reason I thought it was 180k. Waaaay off.



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jonhalo on 30 November 2015
DonFerrari said:
ZhugeEX said:


Do bear in mind that 250k is the total number of receipts they have. The number of receipts with gaming related purchases are much lower. For example, last year only 1.1% of their total sample made a gaming related purchase.

 

We dont know the number this year but if we apply that same percentage then it would mean that less than 3,000 of the 250,000 made a gaming purchase and were counted above. 

People already posted the fine print that only 2000 receipts were game related... no info on how many HW receipts, maybe even less than 500. So I have quite the hard time believing on their precision.

1. that was last year or the year before, when the overall sample was just 150k
2. this is a further proof, that theire sample size is quite decent. if 90% of all receipts would be game related, theire sample size would be screwed towards gamer and way more unreliable.

as said earlier if you want to do a good preliminary election poll, you don't want 100% political interested people. you wan't 40-50%. just like the average country.
it's never about the sample size. 2000 is totally fine for statsitics. it's about the sample itself



DonFerrari on 30 November 2015
jonhalo said:
DonFerrari said:

People already posted the fine print that only 2000 receipts were game related... no info on how many HW receipts, maybe even less than 500. So I have quite the hard time believing on their precision.

1. that was last year or the year before, when the overall sample was just 150k
2. this is a further proof, that theire sample size is quite decent. if 90% of all receipts would be game related, theire sample size would be screwed towards gamer and way more unreliable.

as said earlier if you want to do a good preliminary election poll, you don't want 100% political interested people. you wan't 40-50%. just like the average country.
it's never about the sample size. 2000 is totally fine for statsitics. it's about the sample itself

don't seem like that... the post was puting the fineprints of these year

How having 2000 of 250000 pooled being relevant something to prove the sample size is quite decent? If they are pooling for gaming, the other 248000 receipts are completely useless.

And 50% of people interested in politics is quite different from 0,2% of the receipts being relevant.. and 2000 receipts for game related, involving, cards, sw, peripheral and HW... how much of that is HW? How can you safely say they are reliable if perhaps their survey only have 200-500 HW surveyed and without better information about their demographic choice?

People already show how far they were on their statistical for last year... they said 63/37 and was 55/45 or something like that... that is 8 percentual points error, that is a very big margin of error.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

patronmacabre on 30 November 2015
DonFerrari said:


And your knowledge of VGC reliability comes from? I'm pretty sure they collect more than 2000 game related receipts countrywide.


The problem really isn't the sample size. The difference in margin of error between a sample size of 1,000 and 150,000 is marginal. 

The problem with Infoscout is that their methodology is likely non-random and kind of wonky.



jonhalo on 30 November 2015
DonFerrari said:
jonhalo said:

1. that was last year or the year before, when the overall sample was just 150k
2. this is a further proof, that theire sample size is quite decent. if 90% of all receipts would be game related, theire sample size would be screwed towards gamer and way more unreliable.

as said earlier if you want to do a good preliminary election poll, you don't want 100% political interested people. you wan't 40-50%. just like the average country.
it's never about the sample size. 2000 is totally fine for statsitics. it's about the sample itself

don't seem like that... the post was puting the fineprints of these year

How having 2000 of 250000 pooled being relevant something to prove the sample size is quite decent? If they are pooling for gaming, the other 248000 receipts are completely useless.

And 50% of people interested in politics is quite different from 0,2% of the receipts being relevant.. and 2000 receipts for game related, involving, cards, sw, peripheral and HW... how much of that is HW? How can you safely say they are reliable if perhaps their survey only have 200-500 HW surveyed and without better information about their demographic choice?

People already show how far they were on their statistical for last year... they said 63/37 and was 55/45 or something like that... that is 8 percentual points error, that is a very big margin of error.

they said 63/37 for black friday
55/45 was the whole npd month

i never said they are as exact as election polls. just better than amazon rankings or annecdotal shop insinder knowledge, because of the different demographics. these guys have at least a chance! to be a decent sample size of the overall market. and if you know theire margin of error, you can use the data to make some educated guesses. no1 should take the datapoints as closee to 100%  or even 95% accurate of the overall console retail market tracked by the npd group

 



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DonFerrari on 30 November 2015
patronmacabre said:
DonFerrari said:


And your knowledge of VGC reliability comes from? I'm pretty sure they collect more than 2000 game related receipts countrywide.


The problem really isn't the sample size. The difference in margin of error between a sample size of 1,000 and 150,000 is marginal. 

The problem with Infoscout is that their methodology is likely non-random and kind of wonky.


marginal? Are you sure? and on case of the HW it's a lot less than 1000



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 30 November 2015
jonhalo said:
DonFerrari said:

don't seem like that... the post was puting the fineprints of these year

How having 2000 of 250000 pooled being relevant something to prove the sample size is quite decent? If they are pooling for gaming, the other 248000 receipts are completely useless.

And 50% of people interested in politics is quite different from 0,2% of the receipts being relevant.. and 2000 receipts for game related, involving, cards, sw, peripheral and HW... how much of that is HW? How can you safely say they are reliable if perhaps their survey only have 200-500 HW surveyed and without better information about their demographic choice?

People already show how far they were on their statistical for last year... they said 63/37 and was 55/45 or something like that... that is 8 percentual points error, that is a very big margin of error.

they said 63/37 for black friday
55/45 was the whole npd month

i never said they are as exact as election polls. just better than amazon rankings or annecdotal shop insinder knowledge, because of the different demographics. these guys have at least a chance! to be a decent sample size of the overall market. and if you know theire margin of error, you can use the data to make some educated guesses. no1 should take the datapoints as closee to 100%  or even 95% accurate of the overall console retail market tracked by the npd group

 


So the person quoting them made a mistake, because he said 55/45 for BF. Well whatever. Their margin was quite big, and either way they haven't vouched who was first overall just one SKU being more popular.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Insidb on 30 November 2015
jonhalo said:
DonFerrari said:

don't seem like that... the post was puting the fineprints of these year

How having 2000 of 250000 pooled being relevant something to prove the sample size is quite decent? If they are pooling for gaming, the other 248000 receipts are completely useless.

And 50% of people interested in politics is quite different from 0,2% of the receipts being relevant.. and 2000 receipts for game related, involving, cards, sw, peripheral and HW... how much of that is HW? How can you safely say they are reliable if perhaps their survey only have 200-500 HW surveyed and without better information about their demographic choice?

People already show how far they were on their statistical for last year... they said 63/37 and was 55/45 or something like that... that is 8 percentual points error, that is a very big margin of error.

they said 63/37 for black friday
55/45 was the whole npd month

i never said they are as exact as election polls. just better than amazon rankings or annecdotal shop insinder knowledge, because of the different demographics. these guys have at least a chance! to be a decent sample size of the overall market. and if you know theire margin of error, you can use the data to make some educated guesses. no1 should take the datapoints as closee to 100%  or even 95% accurate of the overall console retail market tracked by the npd group

 

Last year's BF accounted for 50% of November's saleas, and the cited report was only for BF week (not including Cyber Monday): http://www.dailytech.com/New+Report+Sony+PS4+Microsoft+Xbox+One+BOTH+Had+Record+Black+Friday+Weeks/article36969.htm

If the NPD was also 55/45, that was coincidental and expected, as per the 50% split for the month.



BMaker11 on 30 November 2015

Didn't trust infoscout last year when it said XBOne sold the most; not gonna trust them this year saying PS4 sold the most. They could have very well been right (in there percentages) last year and right this year. But I will never believe that non-random samples based off receipts at only a few retailers will give anything close to the whole picture.