fireburn95 said: problem is hardware is massively undertracked, unless ps4 somehow sells like 2 million next week, tbh i don't visit vgchartz for chartz any more, but i reckon it is still nice to have something to look at |
Not that massive actually, considering VGC has one more week of sales to close the gap some more on Sony's announcement. And Sony's announcement was also given as an estimate, therefore it has a margin for error, albeit probably a smaller MoE than VGC's.
If Sony's MoE is 1% and VGC's MoE is 5% and assuming 500K for PS4 for w/e 21 Nov then VGC's upper MoE is 30.35 million, and Sony's lower MoE is 29.90M> There is clearly a large overlap of the MoEs, including that VGC's upper MoE is over 100K higher than Sony's estimate. With that sort of MoE overlap arguably VGC doesn't need to adjust at all because its MoE encompasses Sony's estimate. If you want to hold VGC to a higher standard of say a 3% MoE then the Sony and VGC MoEs don't overlap and therefore this demands adjustment. For practical and analytical purposes a 5% MoE is reasonable. A 3% MoE would be better but is not necessary as a key performance measure. 5% gives you a an acceptable performance appraisal. 3% gives you a Christmas bonus.
The sensible thing to do is to adjust so that the VGC number is within what can be reasonably considered to be Sony's MoE for its estimate. So VGC should adjust up to at least 29.898 million. However strictly speaking it is not absolutely necessary.
Strictly speaking VGC has no LTD as of 22 November. And technically VGC won't have an LTD that 100% encompasses Sony's LTD until it reports hardware for w/e 29 November. If VGC gives PS4 a LTD for 29 Nov of >30.2 million then technically VGC's tracking will be in alignment with Sony's. Of course since Sony's estimate ends before BF and VGC's estimate ends after BF, if VGC only squeaks past 30.2 million for w/e 29 November it won't be terribly believable.
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