So, without any doubt we can agree that Zelda Wii U is indeed a Wii U game. We got confirmation for that back in January 2013, at E3 2014, at The Game Awards 2014 and just two weeks ago in the last Nintendo Direct, as well as during several financial reports and interviews with Aonuma. Bringing it only to Nintendo's next home console would annoy fans because Nintendo hasn't fullfilled their promise.

Everybody who still believes that this game isn't coming to the Wii U should better call a doctor.

Now, I even want to go a step further: it will be a Wii U exclusive. At least for one year.

I had explained several times why I believe that we won't see a new home console from Nintendo before 2017. And I still believe that. 

It seems now impossible to release simultaneously on both the Wii U and the next home console as Nintendo had stated that the game will release in 2016. And just think about it: Wouldn't it be smarter to release it in November 2016 as a Wii U exclusive, get people hyped for it, get them buying the console and the game. They can easily sell 4 million units.

Then at E3 2017 they will show their new home console in detail (I expect them to talk about its concept in 2016) and announce a port/remaster of the game for this new console. They can get people buying their next console if they don't own a Wii U + they can get people who own a Wii U want to get this port. In the end they will sell more units of the game than with a Wii U/next home console simultaneous release in 2016. Let's say 6 million on the new console. Just think about it: Twilight Princess on Gamecube hasn't even sold 2 million units. Now assume it would have been a Gamecube exclusive for ~one year. It would have sold at least 4 million units on Gamecube alone. Then Nintendo would have released the Wii and the Twilight Princess port as a launch title. I expect that it would have also sold 7 million units on Wii. What I wanted to say is that Twilight Princess could have been even more successful if Nintendo would have released it in the right way.

If you now think about Zelda Wii U you will find out that it would be smart from Nintendo to release it in 2016 as a Wii U (timed) exclusive and in 2017 a port of the game as launch title for the next console.

And I guess that's what seems most likely right now. It seems to be obvious.

Sony could have released The Last of Us as a PS4 launch game, but they didn't. Why? Because they wanted to sell more units by releasing a remaster a year later on PS4. People who bought it on PS3 may also buy the upgraded version for the PS4. If they would have released it as a crossgen title on PS4 launch, people would have chosen the PS4 version. In the end the game would have sold less units.

Nintendo will do the same thing with Zelda Wii U. Trust me.

I'll call my doctor and still say no to their lies.

You can't trust anyone, let alone yourself.

I'm pretty sure it's coming to both platforms, but I expect more a The Last of Us situation instead of a Twilight Princess situation.

Wel, okay then. As long as we all agree that will be -- no, HAS to be a launch title for NX as well. If possible, I'd like to see it running on the handheld NX too, but the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that the console and handheld variants will each have at least a few games that aren't available on both.

Oh, and of course I think NX is coming in 2016, but I think we've beaten that horse to death already.

You can say with confidence that it's coming to Wii U, as they still continue to reiterate that. But you can't say there's no chance of it also coming to NX. They haven't denied it, and it's something they've done before. Sometimes I also think it might be unlikely, but I'm not going to call it a sure thing, or "obvious".

It's exactly what OP is describing.

Talking about Smart decisions the smartest Nintendo could take is to release NX in 2016. they already tested the waters back in 2006 with the Wii and TP, I don't really know why they should wait that long to give it a timed exclusivity, moreover to release it on the same date on both consoles is the best choice for everyone including Nintendo:

-Wii U owners will get the game they were supposed to get;

-Wii U owners will get the opportunity to chose between playing the "worse" version on the console they already own or to pick up the best one on the NX, in the first case they save money, in the second one they get a better game, win-win;

-Diehard Zelda fans will get both versions;

-Non Wii U owners won't have to wait to get the game and more importantly won't get spoiled by any mean on the game;

-NX will have a big title in the first weeks after it's launch, if not on the Day One;

and the list goes on...

No, I think NX is coming in 2016 with 3D Mario (3 years after the last one) and Zelda NX in 2017 with a proper port.

Rushed NX port + delayed finished Wii U version would be the worst solution.

It would be completely dumb to release the next home console in 2016. We discussed that before.

And trust me, I'm a dieharc Zelda fan and I won't buy both versions at the same time aka in 2016.

And some Wii U may still be angry (including my own) because the console is worthless for them if they have mainly bought it for Zelda. If Nintendo releases Zelda on both consoles simultaneously than I'm out and will refuse to buy any of their products in the future.