There also significant difference between system that will be 5 years on market and system that will 4 years on market. Nintendo needs to satisfy owners in that 4 years, and they said they will satisfy them. Pikmin 4 is great opportunity for something like that, big game with not big budget.

And Wii U is not on course to sell 14m, at end of next year it will be around 15m.

Nintendo had no problem leaving Wii and Gamecube to wither and die towards the end of their lives. One would hope they have learned their lesson, but since we're 12 months away from NX and Pikmin 4 hasn't even been shown, I'm not optimistic.

Yes, Wii was dead last 1-2 years and GC its last year, but huge difference is that Wii U will have life span of 4 years not 6 or 5 years like Wii and GC. 

Time will tell, there even chances that maybe we'll see it on TGA or on Direct early next year..

The difference between them is between making a decision and not making a decision. Waiting until launch is a decision - they aren't going to develop for the system until they're confident that it will perform well. Considering developing is the absence of a decision - they need more information before deciding how they're going to approach development.

And if Nintendo instructed them to be vague, they'd say things like "We are evaluating the opportunities that NX presents us". The wording is key - "considering developing" translates as "we're not even sure we're going to support it", whereas the phrase I provided translates as "we'll be developing for it soon". It's the difference between saying that you're planning to have children, and you're considering having children. The former implies concrete intent, the latter implies uncertainty, even though "planning" and "considering" function to mean roughly the same thing.

There's no real benefit in "moving" Animal Crossing to the NX, rather than developing for the Wii U and then expanding on the NX afterwards. Animal Crossing does better on handheld anyway, and the design would have to be different on a handheld as a result. So if they had it in development for the Wii U, it would be more efficient to finish the game on the Wii U, rather than going through all of the extra rigmarole of porting after a significant amount of development. Handheld AC tends to do 2-3x as well as console AC. But we're pretty confident they were making a console AC. A far smarter approach would be to make the whole AC game for Wii U, release it in 2016 (assuming, as I've said, a 2017 NX launch), and in the meantime develop also for NX Handheld. NX Console would be able to just be a Wii U port without a problem, anyway, so might as well provide it on both systems.

Keep in mind that Nintendo has been shifting a lot of their development responsibilities into third party partnerships. This makes it easier for them to make more of their key franchise titles, like AC.

Let me ask you this - why did they make Amiibo Festival? What is the benefit of making it? They could have used any of their IP for an amiibo-focused party title, but they chose Animal Crossing. Why? It meant a heap of new amiibo, of course... but it's quite unlikely that they'll limit the use of them on Wii U to this title (plus minor uses in cases like Super Mario Maker). There's good reason to think that they'll have another title making use of them.

I always find it funny when people try to assert what "good business" is, call out Nintendo for bad moves, and then assert that their pet beliefs are going to happen because Nintendo is going to do what they call "good business". And always, along the way, ignore ACTUAL good business, like ensuring that fans of their products aren't dissatisfied, because the worst thing you can do is piss off your fans.

I don't have time to respond to everything, so I'll just focus on this bit.

You've left off quite a few games, you've included a tech demo version of a game as an announcement (Star Fox at E3 2014 was a tech demo based around a project - Platinum Games weren't even on board, yet), and you're including the titles specifically mentioned, but not shown, in that first 2013 Direct, which was made to appease people who feared that the system wouldn't get enough support. Xenoblade Chronicles X was just labelled as "X", most notably. And you're *averaging* - which is ludicrous, when I spoke of how often they announce games well in advance, not what the average timeframe was.

Here's a list of titles that were properly announced (not just teased, or shown as a tech demo, etc) less than 12 months prior to release: TP HD, Star Fox Zero, Splatoon, Mario Tennis, Mario Party 10, Kirby and the Rainbow Curse, Fatal Frame: Maiden of Black Water, Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival, NES Remix, Captain Toad, Hyrule Warriors, Wii Sports Club, Mario Kart 8, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Wind Waker HD, Super Mario 3D World, New Super Luigi U, Game & Wario, and Sing Party, assuming I haven't missed any. Add in Pokken Tournament considering that outside of a "it'll come to Wii U eventually, too", it wasn't really announced until very recently. And arguably, Genei Ibun Roku x Fire Emblem should be added, since until recently it was nothing but a title, and even the title got changed (it was Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem). And then add Pikmin 4, assuming it releases on Wii U, considering that we only know of its existence because of unofficial comments confirming that it's "nearing completion".

Of course, if you add the few titles that were announced LONG before release, it's going to massively skew the average - if you had even a basic understanding of statistics, you'd know that outliers cause problems for the mean. On the other hand, the median isn't affected by outliers, and in this case, the median time between announcement and release is well below 12 months.

Titles we know about for 2016 include Pokken Tournament, two Zelda titles, GIRxFE, Mario & Sonic at the Rio Olympics, and Star Fox Zero. We're also pretty sure Pikmin 4 is coming in 2016, too. That lineup alone is almost enough to be a full 2016 lineup from Nintendo - all it's missing is the "family friendly" titles like Animal Crossing, or a Wii ___ title, or a minigame collection along the lines of Game & Wario. And those are the ones most likely to have a short announcement-to-release turnaround.

As for 2017 - as I said, I'm picturing it as the trailing off point of Wii U, so we're talking about just a few games, in which case it makes sense that they're not announced. Wii's last year was nothing but "family friendly" titles. Gamecube's last year was nothing but delayed titles and obscure titles. It's normal for the last year of a Nintendo system to "tread water". The N64 had Dr Mario 64 and, in Japan, Animal Crossing (which was not yet a big franchise - that came in 2005, when Wild World was released).

Here is the last year of the Wii: Mario Party 9, Kirby's Dream Collection, Project Zero 2: Wii Edition, and Kiki Trick (Japan only) - note that I'm not including titles that were released in 2011 or earlier in at least one region. How many of these do you think were announced before 2011? Mario Party 9 was announced at E3 2011, less than 12 months before release (no surprise there). Kirby's Dream Collection was announced in June 2012, a mere month before release in Japan. Project Zero 2: Wii Edition *might* have been announced for Japan in 2010 - it's not clear, as all reports just describe it as a "Fatal Frame sequel" (which is strictly true, but it sounds like they thought it was a new game, not a Wiimake). Kiki Trick was revealed just a couple of months before release, from what I can tell.

So at best, just one title for 2012 was announced prior to 2011, and it was a Wiimake, and for Japan only. Meanwhile, Project Giant Robot is still TBD, so it's entirely possible that it's going to be one of the filler titles in 2017.

I don't think length is as much as issue, but more that when Nintendo starts producing games for its next console, they put all their major studios on it, which leaves only the low tier guys to support the prior system's last year.

Again, Nintendo also said they want Wii U owners to be satisfied, Pikmin 4 for Wii U would perfectly fit, still is big game but doesn't require lots time or resources. Also there is always chance that will be NX port same like probably Zelda U.

Nintendo say a lot of things. They said they wouldn't repeat the mistakes of the 3DS's launch period with Wii U, but they did.

You don't know we're 12 months away from NX. I'm sick of people treating it being a 2016 release as fact when we have literally been given NOTHING to indicate that yet. If anything, the fact that we're still getting big releases on Wii U proves it's more than a year away, since as you yourself are arguing Nintnedo likes to leave their system for dead for a solid 18 months or so before the next. 

This E3 was practically confirmation that NX is next year; not a single major new game announced for Wii U. All it has left now besides Zelda is late ports/localizations and low budget filler.

Waiting until 2017 is not an option for Nintendo at this point, but then they'd be sunk.