Last year Microsoft outmaneuvered Sony on Black Friday with much better bargains since Sony refused to cut price even on Black Friday of all days. This year, Sony has cut price and will be more competitive against Microsoft for the holiday season. Quite frankly, they have to be since they are bone dry on high level exclusives, so incentives need to be given to purchase the PS4 in anticipation for next year. This year Microsoft has had one hell of a showing featuring the New Xbox Exprience,Backward compatibility Halo 5 and the timed exclusivity of new Tomb Raider to Xbox platforms (having fallout mods as a timed console-exclusive to their platform doesnt hurt either). Sony might have the multiplat bundles but Microsoft has the exclusive bundles. The games Sony cannot provide. I think that when people look for either console it will be a close battle but the exclusives will seal the deal. 

(one counter point)

For hardened COD fans from last gen who are making the jump, COD is going to lack single player, so being that the PS4 comes with a bundle this will help, as well as having early content. Outside of that the XBox still gets the game and the dlc shortly after. A small victory.

Prediction: Xbox One will take the November Black Friday 2015.

You are giving too much importance to exclusives. What really make consoles sell are third party games and Sony have marketing rights with all of them (except Fallout 4 but I bet is selling better on PS4). You have proof right here in the NPD data, Halo 5 barely moved consoles and Tomb Raider can't even sell by itself. BC and special features are all well and good, but they don't sell consoles. The winner of Black Friday will be whom can offer the best deals, period.

X1 will take Walmart and Target
PS4 will take everywhere else
NDC bundle > Gears bundle

This is if nothing changes in the deals before it starts.

Funny how you're aware of CoD and CoD fans, but not at all of a little franchise called Star Wars and its small fanbase. The SW LE Bundle is just one of the best selling bundles on Amazon since September (3 months in the top 30). I'm sure it won't sell well...

The only way MS can win BF is with huge price cuts. Nothing to do with exclusives here.

Hmm the force may argue with you..

Whoever has the most discounted units available will win. That's all most shoppers look at. The most popular bundle last holiday wasn't an exclusive bundle, but the AC: Unity bundle, which was the cheapest unit with the most value at the time.

Black Friday? This is when all those plebs swarm into the stores like animals for cheaper prices? I saw a South Park episode about it.

Plebs probably prefer Microsoft, so yeah. I suppose Microsoft will "win" heh.

- Moderated by Tachikoma

Probably, but does it matter?

BF is all about price and availability, most good deals sell out so it comes down to who supplies the most at great prices. great bundles are a bonus but they come secondary to price and stock as many of the buyers are parents buying for kids at xmas. No idea who will win but I think it will simply come down to price/stock levels.

It should! No IT BETTER!!!